Gogi
29 posts


🚨 THE STOCK MARKET IS FLASHING THE SAME WARNING SIGNS SEEN BEFORE EVERY MAJOR MODERN CRASH.
Almost every major warning sign is now flashing right now:
• Credit stress is rising.
• Valuations are near record highs.
• Inflation is climbing again.
• Bond yields are surging.
• A handful of AI stocks are carrying the market.
• Options speculation is exploding.
Yet stocks keep making new highs.
The real economy and the stock market are no longer moving together.
According to New York Fed data, roughly 4.8% of household debt is now delinquent, the highest level since before Covid.
Credit card stress remains elevated.
Auto loan delinquencies have now risen every year since 2021 and are approaching levels last seen around the 2008 period.
The pressure is hitting lower-income and younger consumers the hardest.
At the same time, the stock market is trading at some of the most expensive levels in history.
The Shiller P/E ratio is now above 40x.
That has only happened twice before:
• Dot-com bubble
• Today
The Buffett Indicator is now around 231%, meaning the total US stock market is worth more than twice the size of the US economy.
That is above most historical bubble levels.
Meanwhile, investors are accepting almost no income from stocks despite extreme valuations.
The S&P 500 dividend yield recently fell near record lows around 1.1%.
At the same time, 30-year US Treasury bonds are yielding nearly 5%.
Historically, this kind of gap appears when investors stop caring about valuation and focus only on momentum and future growth stories.
Inflation is also becoming a problem again.
Recent data shows:
• CPI near 3.8%
• PPI at 6%
• Core inflation still far above the Fed’s 2% target
That makes rate cuts much harder.
The structure of this rally is also becoming increasingly fragile.
A small group of AI-related mega caps is driving most of the gains.
At the same time:
• Short-dated call option buying
• Dealer gamma hedging
• Passive ETF inflows
are pushing prices even higher.
This creates a feedback loop where momentum itself becomes the main driver of the market.
Many analysts are now comparing the current setup to:
• Dot-com bubble
• Late-stage 2021 melt-up
• Other major speculative peaks
None of this guarantees an immediate crash.
But historically, periods with:
• Extreme valuations
• Rising consumer stress
• Sticky inflation
• High bond yields
• Narrow market leadership
• Speculative leverage
have usually ended with sharp market repricing once growth expectations start weakening.
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@Ashton_1nvests Those same people won't buy when drops either.
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@IHateItMost @sporadica This his whole point. Buffett went to cash while missing out on five years of gains. He’s not acting like he’s smarter, he’s just providing data
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@sporadica It’s pretty simple you see, he thinks there’s going to be a market crash. You know what money won’t be affected by that? Cash, you got it. Then after the crash he can buy up everything for cheap. Why is everyone acting like they’re smarter than Warren fucking Buffett today???
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can someone explain to me how this is somehow a smart move by Buffett, because frankly it seems like a pretty big failure on the part of Berkshire to be sitting on cash and T-bills while inflation skyrockets and the market keeps on absolutely pumping

a16z@a16z
Berkshire is sitting on the largest pile of cash in its history More charts: a16z.news/p/charts-of-th…
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🚨THE SHIFT IS HAPPENING!
🇦🇪 The UAE and 🇰🇷 South Korea have just signed the FIRST economic partnership agreement:
- Tariffs cut or eliminated on 91.2% of goods
- Trade flows expected to double
- Direct boost to energy, industry, and supply chains
That occurred just a few hours after the announcement that the UAE had exited OPEC to increase its own production.
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@MikeReiss @LuiHard Not a single LB! Who’s tackling the ball runner this season Mike?
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Patriots undrafted free-agent agreements:
🏈TE Tanner Arkin (Illinois)
🏈DT David Blay (Miami)
🏈CB Channing Canada (TCU)
🏈WR Nick DeGennaro (James Madison)
🏈WR Kyle Dixon (Culver-Stockton)
🏈WR Cameron Dorner (North Texas)
🏈CB Kenneth Harris (Oklahoma State)
🏈WR Jimmy Kibble (Georgetown)
🏈RB Myles Montgomery (Central Florida)
🏈G JonDarius Morgan (UAB)
🏈C Jacob Rizy (Florida State)
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@ChadGraff Vrabel giving up day three picks so Eliot doesn’t have em to use 😆
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@Stocktwits OH MAN, STOCKTWITS TOO, SO FREAKING BULLISH.
NOTICING A LOT OF LARGE FOLLOWER ACCOUNTS BASHING $AMC NOW.
HODL THE LINE!! 🔥🦍📈
@nolapools @Misterclever0ne @AMCTiago
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@MLFootball They were calling that a strike the whole game for both teams
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