Cheese & Numbers 🧀📊

Where do the Packers' new CBs stack up against the 2026 draft class? Brandon Cisse (Rd 2, #52): 47.4% catch rate allowed — well below the median. He doesn't let receivers catch the ball. Coverage grade needs work (71.2), but the ball-denial skills are real. Domani Jackson (Rd 6, #201): 76.2% catch rate — that's the concern. But at pick 201, you're betting on physical tools and scheme fit, not finished product. Data: PFF, 2025 college season, min. 300 coverage snaps.

@adrianbb89 @darkseith Weil ich so gerne mit anderen Bears Fans diskutiere, lass ich das mal hier.

@darkseith Seine Dropback SR sieht besser aus wegen der Scrambles. Nimm die raus, und er fällt im Liga Vergleich. Deswegen sagt uns das nichts über seine Konstanz als Passer, was der zentrale Kritikpunkt ist

Mich würde brennend @adrianbb89 s take dazu interessieren

Yes, a completion adds more EPA than an incompletion. That’s not a flaw in the metric. That’s the whole point. Completing passes is literally the job. The question is why Williams completed fewer passes than any other starting QB despite having the most time to throw (3.23s) and a top 8 OL. That’s not an algorithm issue.

@CheeseNNumbers @ThienemanSZN @_Brooke22 @FTNFantasy To clarify EPA using a points probability/play has to by default factor in comp% as a completed pass adds much more to the probability than an incomplete pass

Comp% isn’t the foundation of EPA. A QB can complete 50% and still have elite EPA if he’s hitting the right throws at the right time. Williams didn’t just have a low comp%. He also had negative CPOE (-3.51), 70.8% accuracy (FTN), and the lowest comp% among all starting QBs. Behind the 8th-best pass blocking OL with the longest time to throw in the NFL (3.23s). More time + better protection should mean more completions, not fewer. That’s the issue. But I agree. His ceiling is as high as it can be. Third year in the league, second year under Ben Johnson. You just have to hope that his o line doesn’t regress and the defense is still so lucky with takeaways.

@CheeseNNumbers @ThienemanSZN @_Brooke22 @FTNFantasy Every single stat you’ve listed is heavily reliant on comp% as a base in the algorithm (yes even PFF). That improves 2-3% and his numbers skyrocket. I expect that to happen

The Packers' 2025 offense, game by game. Each ridge shows the distribution of EPA per play. The wider the ridge, the more plays at that value. White dot = game average. Green = Win. Red = Loss. You can see the collapse in real time: the last 4 games are all red, ridges shrinking, average drifting left. Weeks 1–8? Explosive. Big plays everywhere. Weeks 15–18? Flat. Nothing working (injuries).

@Growsmann @ThienemanSZN @_Brooke22 @FTNFantasy Please explain.

@CheeseNNumbers @ThienemanSZN @_Brooke22 @FTNFantasy Repackaged completion percentage 5 different ways

@TJStats The right top corner should be the best teams right? Is red a good color for that quadrant?

MLB Team FIP vs ERA

Not just counting stats: Across 34 comparable categories (PFF, @FTNFantasy , nflfastR): Love wins 27. Williams wins 7. Key stats: +0.24 vs +0.071 EPA/Play +5.53 vs -3.51 CPOE 88.7 vs 72.2 PFF Pass Grade 64.9% vs 57.3% Comp% 76.1% vs 70.8% Accuracy (FTN) 101.4 vs 86.8 Passer Rating Love led at every depth: Behind LOS: +0.10 vs -0.08 EPA Short: +0.43 vs +0.28 Medium: +0.73 vs +0.05 Deep: +0.50 vs +0.40 Williams had the 8th-best pass blocking OL (73.1 grade). Love had the 20th (63.8). Better protection, more time (3.23s vs 2.82s TTT), more attempts, and still worse in 27 of 34 categories. Full comparison table below.

@_Brooke22 The guy who’s played in 13 more game and been in the league for 6 years has better counting stats

I try to stay objective with my analysis. But claiming Caleb Williams was better than Jordan Love in 2025 is simply insane. Across 34 comparable categories (PFF, @FTNFantasy, nflfastR): Love wins 27. Williams wins 7. Key stats: +0.24 vs +0.071 EPA/Play +5.53 vs -3.51 CPOE 88.7 vs 72.2 PFF Pass Grade 64.9% vs 57.3% Comp% 76.1% vs 70.8% Accuracy (FTN) 101.4 vs 86.8 Passer Rating Love led at every depth: Behind LOS: +0.10 vs -0.08 EPA Short: +0.43 vs +0.28 Medium: +0.73 vs +0.05 Deep: +0.50 vs +0.40 Williams had the 8th-best pass blocking OL (73.1 grade). Love had the 20th (63.8). Better protection, more time (3.23s vs 2.82s TTT), more attempts, and still worse in 27 of 34 categories. Full comparison table below.

Having seen this shit twice a year is why Jordan Love will never scare me

I double down: Bears went 11-6 in 2025. 11 of 17 games were decided by 7 points or less. Their close game record: 7-4. In 6 of those 7 close wins, the Bears had a positive turnover differential. They forced 33 takeaways on the season vs. only 11 giveaways (+22, best in the NFL). Flip 2 of those loose balls and Chicago is 9-8, which is exactly what their point differential predicts (expected record: 9.1-7.9 per PFR). But again, I know this is too much for you to understand.

@CheeseNNumbers @JD54832 @DennisSuttonSZN Plz tell me how many playoff teams u see cheese & crackers. Be serious for a few minutes.

I try to stay objective with my analysis. But claiming Caleb Williams was better than Jordan Love in 2025 is simply insane. Across 34 comparable categories (PFF, @FTNFantasy , nflfastR): Love wins 27. Williams wins 7. Key stats: +0.24 vs +0.071 EPA/Play +5.53 vs -3.51 CPOE 88.7 vs 72.2 PFF Pass Grade 64.9% vs 57.3% Comp% 76.1% vs 70.8% Accuracy (FTN) 101.4 vs 86.8 Passer Rating Love led at every depth: Behind LOS: +0.10 vs -0.08 EPA Short: +0.43 vs +0.28 Medium: +0.73 vs +0.05 Deep: +0.50 vs +0.40 Williams had the 8th-best pass blocking OL (73.1 grade). Love had the 20th (63.8). Better protection, more time (3.23s vs 2.82s TTT), more attempts, and still worse in 27 of 34 categories. Full comparison table below.

2026 Quarterback rankings list heading into the season 🤝🏼

@CamattiMar41800 @JD54832 @DennisSuttonSZN You maybe care about football but you just don't know ball with your troll account.

@CheeseNNumbers @JD54832 @DennisSuttonSZN The stats people that actually watch football care about.

@CamattiMar41800 @JD54832 @DennisSuttonSZN Total yards don't decide games. Points and turnovers do. A defense can allow yards all day and still win by forcing takeaways at the right moments, which is exactly what Chicago's defense did in 2025.

I think you smoked some crack. All of them. Top 5 turnover differential in 2025: Chicago +22 - Playoffs Houston +17 - Playoffs Jacksonville +13 - Playoffs Pittsburgh +12 - Playoffs LA Rams +11 - Playoffs 5 for 5. Takeaways win games. Not total yards allowed. I know you can't read but anyway: Teams that win the turnover battle win roughly 78% of their games, and at +3 it's over 91% (Harvard study). Chicago had the NFL's best turnover differential at +22. That's what turned a 15th-ranked point differential into an 11-6 record, not yards.

@CamattiMar41800 @JD54832 @DennisSuttonSZN You guys don’t know your own team.

@CheeseNNumbers @JD54832 @DennisSuttonSZN The 3rd worst defense in the league bailed out the bears😭😭😭😭😭😭. Bruh I’ve heard it all from Tittytown

@JD54832 @DennisSuttonSZN Didn’t play every game due to injuries. Lost key players on the way and still had an elite season. Williams was behind an elite o-line and still performed worse. Also the defense bailed him out several times with takeaways. And you know all that… Maybe next season.

@DennisSuttonSZN @CheeseNNumbers Every stat except the win column #wondering

Underrated baller. 0.59 EPA/Target. Only a handful of receivers were more efficient in 2025. His AAV? $11M. That puts him deep in the "STEAL" quadrant when you plot EPA/Target vs. salary for every qualifying WR. Health is the only asterisk. When he's on the field, the production is elite-tier at a mid-level contract.

CHRISTIAN WATSON, @packers WR In 4 seasons, Watson, has a career average of 10.0 receiving yards per target on 227 targets - the HIGHEST career average in Packers History, min. 200 targets (Per PFR) #GoPackGo #Packers #GreenBay #NFL #NFLX #nfldraftday #NFL2026 #NFLNews #NFLPicks

Welcome the newest addition to the team! Congrats to Jordan and Ronika!

@SeahawkNerd Amazing work, thank you!

New article: Tight End Archetypes open.substack.com/pub/seahawkner…