Chris Halliday

@100xwins @Bluntz_Capital Thanks @100xwins as soon as I asked the question I realized how stupid I was.

@ChrisHalliday4 @Bluntz_Capital finding specific companies that are directly involved with the copper biz

striking similarities here #copper is basically repeating the #silver playbook from earlier last year. the slow grinding upwards channel has lasted about 3 years now, and even though its been trending upwards the entire time, somehow ppl still get bored and move on because they have the attention span of a goldfish. this channel eventually breaks out but we dont know exactly when, i suspect in the next 4-6 months or so but when it does, it will double FAST. id rather be 6 months early then one day late because make no mistake, this price action IS the accumulation, when the real breakout happens there will not be any 2nd, 3rd or 4th chances to position accordingly, exactly like what happened in the silver parabola.

@Bluntz_Capital Thanks mate. Appreciate you taking the time to reply. By putting in work what do you mean?

@ChrisHalliday4 copx etf if you dont wanna put in the work

ppl spent months identifying a scapegoat for the btc bear market. jane street, quantum, software selloff, blablabla. in the end, btc is an asset that’s unanchored by cashflow, and thus the primary driver of its price action is just… “ta”. and ta is just psychology. ppl who believed in the 4yr cycle outnumbered those who believed in the 5yr cycle. after that the trend was broken so ppl started booking profit / cutting loss. that’s all there is. most other explanations look more like correlation than causation. now we just patiently wait for the mass psyche to completely capitulate (maybe it has already) and for the trend to reverse. we don’t necessarily need a catalyst for this to happen.

@Geiger_Capital What an absolute disgrace, all I hear is a nation trying to give itself a pass to carry on a do as it wants.

Marco Rubio with one of the greatest speeches by a Sec of State in decades: "We are prepared to do this alone but it is our preference, and our hope, to do this together with you, our friends in Europe. America was founded 250 years ago, but the roots began here on this continent long before. The men who settled and built the nation of my birth arrived on our shores carrying the memories, the traditions, and the Christian faith of our ancestors as a sacred inheritance, an unbreakable link between the old world and the new. We are part of one civilization, Western civilization. We are bound to one another by the deepest bonds that nations could share, forged by centuries of shared history, Christian faith, culture, heritage, language, ancestry, and the sacrifices our forefathers made together for the common civilization to which we have now fallen heir. And if at times we disagree, our disagreements come from our profound sense of concern about a Europe with which we are connected, not just economically, not just militarily. We are connected spiritually and we are connected culturally. We want Europe to be strong. We believe that Europe and the West must survive."

@DaxxTrader It’s a slippery slope @DaxxTrader

Some people just don't get it, have a read of Nics post here.

Gold continues to produce the cleanest Cycles. Declining phases consolidate via time, and not price. Highlighting underlying strength during the cooling off phase of each cycle. Notable that after the most recent cycle high, which was parabolic in structure, it still remains above the 10wma. Suggesting to me that yet another time based consolidation is developing, setting up another run in Feb.

A lot of people I hear from (some I know) seem to always live on the edge when it comes to their money, moving from one idea and opportunity to the next as attention shifts between big ideas. They’re chasing the big outcome with blinders on, looking for that one big leap into riches. You only need to see the bias that develops and grows on X around themes, until it’s too late. I certainly did a lot of this in my early years. Sometimes they get close and sometimes they temporarily achieve far more than expected. Success creates a hero complex that consumes them and the network effect of reinforcement compounds it. But because everything is always in such hectic motion, always at risk, one forgets how to formalize their win. What’s gained in one season or theme, is often quickly handed back before the theme runs its course, as all sense of discipline and logic escapes them. Then the cycle repeats, they move on to the next idea looking for that escape level wealth, and again suddenly believing it’s their only chance to make it big or a way to get it all back. What I’ve come to appreciate later in life is that risk alone is not a wealth strategy. It's more akin to an income source. You need a compounding strategy running alongside the speculation, something relatively predictable and structurally boring. People shy away from this because it seems (on the surface) that you can’t get rich or leverage it. But without that parallel system, there’s nowhere for winnings to go except right back into the same volatile arena they came from. And without a home, your risk is just amplified to scale at another level, but without any newfound level of risk appreciation and with a belief that the idea will just keep on giving. The problem isn’t risk itself, it’s the absence of a place to crystallize the outcome of that risk and therefore it often runs it's course, the full cycle. I think real wealth is something that is not constantly at risk. Something stable and dependable. Something that emerges at the point where volatility is converted into something that can quietly grow on its own. A mechanism that allows temporary wins to turn into a permanent foundation. Risk then becomes something that feeds the foundation versus something that is never quite yours.

The word cycle is thrown around carelessly a lot or co-opted to fit narratives. But the technical definition is Cycles are always measured from low to low. That’s the only count that is relatively consistent, the duration between one low and the next defines the cycle’s timeframe. The top of the cycle is the wildcard, and will change from cycle to cycle. It’s not a consistent duration because it’s dictated by the broader trend. In raging secular bull markets, tops form late in lower timeframe cycles to allow price to stretch upwards, deep into the cycle. In bear markets, they show up early, giving the downtrend time to dig in and extended lower. In bull phases, a common theme is price rising about three-quarters of the time, one-quarter down. Bitcoin, still in a secular bull market, has followed that pattern fairly well across several cycles so far.  Mature assets like gold have too, but they also have seen periods of only 1/4 up, 3/4 down, defined as secular bear phases. When people say the Bitcoin “4-year cycle” is dead, what they’re really saying is it’s stupid to expect every peak to arrive at the same interval from the last low, every 4 years. And they’re 💯 right, the next top could easily form later than in the last! And in the next cycle, much sooner potentially. But pretending the cycle structure can’t repeat again in this one, is equally foolish. So Cycles bring the most clarity when identifying bear market lows. On shorter timeframes (weekly or daily Cycles), although noisier, they also help time intermediate entries when the higher-timeframe trend is up. Like any tool, cycles can provide a great edge, but nothing (should go without saying) close to certainty.  They can also give many false signals in directionless markets, because not every cycle will have a clean sine wave structure.  And beyond that, there’s always discretion involved with identifying where we stand in a cycle and when key turning points (trough-peak-trough) have occurred. There are tools (like TA and sentiment) that help with this, but confirmation often has to come after the fact, because one cannot discern easily between a normal dip in an uptrend vs a dip that begins the bear (declining) phase.   Outside of the rare euphoric blow-offs, which can be easier to front-run, nailing the exact top is never easy, and in some ways, not the intent. Cycle analysis is trend-following by nature, and waiting for top confirmation means surrendering a bit (or a lot) of upside. The strategy attempts to get a good head start (more predictable lows) and then capture the meat of the upside move.

@BobLoukas @LarryBi22962432 Yes thank you Bob! I totally agree with these people sentiments. You have helped steer my ship and make good educated decisions. 🙏

@LarryBi22962432 Thanks Larry.

So many questions on where bitcoin is heading. My honest answer, at this phase of cycle we're in that zone where it's not bull only mode. So I wouldn't be surprised with bitcoin at $60k or $180k in 3 months. Bitcoin doubles in 3 months during bull phases and historically drops 50% off the highs in 8 weeks from a top. So I'm no help to you and I wont stake a position for future clout. My only goal personally here is how to get the best possible result from either outcome.

However, when assessing our exposure to gold and bitcoin, it’s worth remembering that this is a play on two trends: US fiscal dominance, which could include negative real rates and therefore the use case for gold, and a move towards a multipolar world in which the dollar standard gets increasingly challenged (hence causing gold reserves to increase). Below we see the trajectory for US growth and US yields.  The rule of thumb is that for debt to be sustainable the rate of economic growth needs to be higher than the cost of the debt. Based on the CBO’s projected growth rate and the Fed forward curve, it looks like the debt will become unstainable in a few years, barring either a growth spurt (AI?) or financial repression.  The stakes are high.

Big day!! ATH!!! Bring it home baby!!

😱 Traders have changed their tunes, swinging more and more negative with expectations of Bitcoin falling back below $100K, Ethereum back below $3.5K, and altcoins going through a retrace period. As markets move opposite to the crowd's expectations, these couple of weeks of FUD is an encouraging sign that this feared large retrace will never actually happen. 🧐 Follow along and see when the crowd gets overly greedy when markets are rising (through words like #buying, #mooning, #lambo, & #bullish spiking across social media), and overly fearful when markets are falling (through words like #selling, #lower, #ending, & #bearish. 🔗 Bookmark for one of crypto's top signals all in one chart: app.santiment.net/s/5_zoJIYb?utm…

The Perfect Storm Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Journey video. Appreciate you sharing it on other media, and a retweet. Cheers. youtu.be/lFyXznUq30A?fe…

My view is that as BTC breaks ATH's this begins to outperform again and will remain in the top 5 majors in performance in this cycle. Patience! Greed, desperation or FOMO never work...

Longer term...

For those of you in Sui, these are my chart reads... Shorter term...

Lot of questions on Cycle translation. In the illustration, it shows 3 x 60-day Cycles (Green to Green arrow is one cycle) making up 1 x Weekly Cycle (24 weeks). Weekly Cycle started April 7th. If still in rising 4Yr Cycle, this Day 1 we just printed is the 2nd green arrow.

$BTC holding up well. Each day is less time remains for a meaningful drop to cycle low. Still hope to tag $100k next 1-3 days. Main theme though it’s readying for very quick move to $125k (over 50 days) is my read. Obv not prediction, but we have some really clean cycle action.

“Sell in May and go away” The old adage exists for a reason. But will this cycle be different? Here’s what I’m seeing: Gun to my head… This is what I’d roll the dice on 👇 But for a full cycle reset I’d love to see a full panic below 100k. And then rally out of it and push. Something like this would be nice to get behind for a strong next swing high to 137k: Could this all turn into a bunch of sideways action over the US summer? Sure. In which case we’d be looking towards September and October for the big rally. But my hunch is that we see a new ATH sooner than that.