Chuck Will

@BurggrabenH I think this author’s perspective is much more realistic than Kagan’s.

The Atlantic piece by Robert Kagan is interesting not because it proves “America lost” or “Iran won”, but because it reveals how seriously parts of the US foreign policy establishment now view the Hormuz problem. Some of the article’s strongest points are actually correct IMHO: First, Hormuz does not need to be fully “closed” to create a strategic and economic crisis. A Strait that is selectively dangerous, politically conditioned or commercially unreliable already changes the entire equilibrium. As I explained in a Substack, it’s remarkably simple to stop vessel traffic. A threat is enough. Second, the key issue is not military maps but commercial confidence. Oil molecules do not teleport through Hormuz because politicians announce a ceasefire. Shipping is a human business run by fleet managers, insurers, charter desks and exhausted seafarers trying to avoid getting trapped in a warzone. That’s why I keep repeating: what matters is not some outbound Iranian or Indian tanker during a ceasefire window. That’s only a sign of people trying to escape the Persian trap. It’s noise. The signal is whether ballast vessels voluntarily go BACK INTO the Persian trap to restore normal tanker schedules. That is a much higher hurdle. I would certainly not send my vessel in there, not for any kind of premium. The article is also right that the current restraint by the US and regional actors reflects the enormous escalation risks tied to Gulf energy infrastructure. Markets still underestimate how vulnerable refining, LNG and export systems really are. But the article overreaches massively. “Checkmate”, “American surrender”, “Iran controls the global energy system”, “nobody can reopen Hormuz” etc. is rhetorical excess masquerading as inevitability. The current reality is not “can’t”, but “won’t yet”. The US, Israel, Japan/Korea, China, France/Britain (in other EU NATO combo), India or the Gulf states all ultimately possess plenty of latent military capability to destroy a (weak) Iranian military/resistance if political will emerges. The issue is that nobody wants to pay the political price of full escalation for now, which is entirely rational. A few weeks back this useless & under-resourced conflict wasn’t even on the radar. Why rush into a full blown war now? With what political support while diesel & jet fuel remains available? It’s early. Likewise, markets have a way to adapt. Painfully, slowly and with enormous friction, but they adapt. By H2 2027 we will see: - workarounds/bypass infrastructure; convoy systems, new insurance structures; - bilateral arrangements; altered trade flows; smuggling; new alliances etc; - and permanently higher geopolitical risk premia for the region (Asians in particular will be fat up with all this the Middle Eastern groundhog day bullshit, rightly so); Between now and then? A messy muddle-through phase attached to recessionary pressure, with significant pain in Asia & Africa and lesser pain in Europe and the US, huge inventory draws and massive SPR releases, inflation scares and periodic political panic. Meanwhile, forecasting neat “deal” outcomes is useless. Nobody knows: - how stable the Iranian regime really is, - how its populations react after a prolonged ceasefire and hyperinflation; - how long Western political tolerance for this nonsense lasts; - whether Israel escalates further; - how Saudi/UAE/TUR positioning evolves; - what China or India tolerate; - or when commercial shipping confidence returns (my biggest concern by far). There are simply too many moving parts and stakeholders, including global consumers which so far remained remarkably calm. That doesn’t have to stay that way. At some point they may demand to “bomb” it open. This is fog of war/peace territory. The most likely outcome for now is not a clean victory for anyone, but an ugly global shitty muddle-through regime with a proper recession by Q3, higher inflation & a structurally nervous energy market well into 2027.

@BillAckman @Jason @ROLEX @Bremont Rolex is the Jersey Shore of high end timepieces. So many nice brands out there (Breguet, Patek, VC, IWC…) Research and find one that feels like “you”.

@Jason @ROLEX If you want something actually cool, check out @Bremont us.bremont.com/products/super…

Going to buy my first watch... the @Rolex speaks to me. I need to learn how to buy a new one. Do you just go to the Rolex website or store? educate me please

@thegresearch Buffets earning $4B a quarter risk free on this money. He probably thinks there’s no better risk adjusted alternative out there at that scale.

@josephcotten2nd @JohnStossel @charlesmurray A lot to unpack here but I doubt the “elite mob” thinks about you much at all.

@JohnStossel @charlesmurray Eugenics is pseudoscience. Anthropological geneticists debunked it decades ago. Every time a “race” box is checked, the “intelligence quotient” of the human race diminishes. Sowing hatred and division is a game for the elite mob that rules us.

“I’m deeply depressed,” @charlesmurray tells me. He’s talking about America’s growing welfare state. The man who influenced both Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton to try welfare reform now says, "I don’t see a way back out.”

@BillOzinga @RealChaosOrder @GovWhitmer Why shouldn’t we give free food to adults, too? More more more more handouts. Seriously. When will this end?

@RealChaosOrder @GovWhitmer You give Elon Musk more per month for that blue checkmark than this would cost you.

When our kids can count on free breakfast and lunch, they show up ready to learn. It’s helping all 1.4 million students stay focused and prepared every day and it’s time to make it permanent.

@Goyim_Replies @TodayinHistory You must be really fun at parties.

@TodayinHistory A multiracial economic zone is not exactly what the founders intended.

This may be the most articulate response I’ve ever heard to this question.

@elerianm I’ll add it to the list!

Neither words nor photos can truly do justice to the immense magic of Bhutan. Beyond the breathtaking landscapes and vibrant culture, it is the feeling of the place that stays with you. It is a land of profound kindness and quiet reflection—one that has opened my eyes to the rare beauty of a life where the ancient and the modern don't just coexist, but meld together in a seamless and engaging harmony. #bhutan

@HoagieD233382 @RyanSaavedra I listened to his show and heard it myself. He said it. But obvs everyone is trying to spin it without context.

@RyanSaavedra The quote is out of context which is why this clip doesn’t show him saying Trump in it. No one cares what NYT thinks anymore and Tucker’s show is 50 times more relevant and important than the better versions of mainstream news.

NYT: "You've been talking on your show about whether Trump is the Antichrist" Tucker Carlson: "I have not said that" NYT: You said, "Here's a leader mocking the Gods of his ancestors, mocking the God of Gods, and exalting himself above them. Could this be the Antichrist?" TC: "I actually did not say 'could this be the Antichrist?'" NYT: ***plays clip of him saying exactly that*** TC: "I don't know where that comes from, but I know those words never left my lips"

@ThatRetiredDude @DataRepublican It’s locked down now

@DataRepublican Did they already lock this down or do I just suck? Let me get that file cuz.

🧵🚨 BREAKING: Miles Taylor: "Anonymous," former DHS Chief of Staff, Google security executive launched a website called GTFO ICE that collects your full name, email, phone number, and zip code to join an anti-ICE "rapid response network." And publishes the user infromation via a public API. 🚨 17,662 people have signed up. The sign-up data is exposed on a public REST API. No true authentication. No rate limiting. Full records: names, emails, phone numbers, zip codes, timestamps. The man who ran the third-largest federal department (250,000 employees, $60 billion budget) who oversaw election security architecture and led counterterrorism operations, then served as Google's Head of National Security Policy... ...can't secure a sign-up form. But he does milk hundreds of thousands of NGO dollars on these credentials. While freeloading off his fame as the person who wrote the infamous NYT article "I Am Part of the Resistance Inside the Trump Administration." And despite me pinging @MilesTaylorUSA about this 12 hours ago, the REST API is still wide open and exposed as of now. Everything has been turned over to FBI, HSI, ICE, and more agencies. As always, patience as I pull together the thread. 👇

@Th_Midwesterner My favorite is the DEPORT MILLIONAIRES, keep the money sign next to her 😂

Indivisible protest in Michigan today. They apparently are unhappy the attempt last weekend was a failure.

@ChrisMurphyCT @MalloryMcMorrow Disingenuous misrepresentation of reality.

Just landed in Detroit to campaign for @MalloryMcMorrow and stopped at a gas station. $6 A GALLON. Trump’s war is ruining our economy - in Connecticut, Michigan and all over the country.

@DaveBondyTV It really doesn’t bother me. The signs don’t deter the bad guys.

This is the video of when Ann Arbor, Michigan City Council voted to spend $18,000 to remove neighborhood watch signs because they are not inclusive. What's your take?

@LisaForCongress I really couldn’t care less. They’re signs.

10 people sit on Ann Arbor’s city council. 10 voted to spend $18k taking down "unwelcoming" Neighborhood Watch signs. 0 said "wait, this sounds insane." At every level of government, Democrats prioritize the feelings of criminals over the citizens they were elected to serve.

@EndWokeness Who cares?

Ann Arbor, MI removes 600 anti-crime signs to be "inclusive" & "welcoming"

Detroit’s new skyscraper is a stunner

@crypto_scope1 @cyrilXBT @grok Thanks!

@Chuckwill @cyrilXBT @grok It’s on YouTube in the anthropic channel and it’s quite an old video. Most of the guys posting these I feel like are just farming engagement instead of actually giving up to date info on Claude. You can find up to date stuff on their site and YouTube.

ANTHROPIC JUST PROVED MOST PEOPLE HAVE NO IDEA HOW TO PROMPT CLAUDE. Their applied AI team dropped a 24 minute free workshop. Not a creator who reverse engineered it. Not a Reddit thread. ANTHROPIC. The people who wrote the weights. And what they showed is uncomfortable. There are 6 elements to a properly structured Claude prompt. Most people are using 1. Maybe 2. That is not a skill issue. That is an information issue. And it has been quietly costing you every single day. The outputs that felt slightly off. The responses you had to rewrite 4 times. The prompts that worked once and never again. All of it traces back to the same 6 missing elements. The people who watch this 24 minute workshop tonight will understand something about Claude that most daily users still do not know exists. The people who skip it will keep getting 30% of what the tool is actually capable of and wonder why the results never quite land. I watched it twice. Then I built a Claude Skill that applies all 6 elements to every prompt automatically. No more thinking about structure. No more guessing what Claude needs. The framework runs in the background every single time. Full breakdown and skill setup is below. Bookmark this now. Watch the workshop first. Then read the guide. This is the one that compounds. Follow @cyrilXBT for the exact prompt architecture, Claude skills, and systems I use to get outputs most people do not believe came from one person working alone.

@KoreaPistonsFan @GoBlueLexi117 Thank you for visiting. Hope you come back, soon!

Hello everyone! I just wanted to address some things about my stay in Detroit as I've seen some wild theories out there. Visiting Detroit is extremely costly. It cost me around USD 3k for the flights alone! I paid for most of the food I had (excluding a few times like when the Dearborn mayor showed me around). I eat tons as you've seen so that's again a lot of money. The collaboration instagram posts with restaurants and Detroit accounts like Greektown, Dearborn, Riverwalk, DIA etc were to help promote and highlight various areas in Detroit, mostly requested collab from them and were definitely not paid for at all. The only paid collaboration I had during my visit was with Sam Bernstein - because they offered to pay for my hotel during my visit. (and a signed Cade jersey, I probably would've done collab posts just for that alone lol) I have a pretty regular job here in Korea. I constantly save my money just to visit Detroit and spend my savings away there. It's my passion and I love every moment of doing it, although I know it's not the smartest way of managing my finances. So yeah, I just wanted to get that off my chest. I'm no sleeper agent, industry plant, looking to steal your culture, or someone looking to profit off my fame. I did get some special treatment from teams and I understand if some of you are frustrated at that - I also agree that local fans need as much love. I'm not saying that you should like me, but I just want you to know I'm human too so I do get hurt by hateful comments. I just wanted you to understand I'm just a fan of the city like you and it just happens that I live 7,000 miles away. I love Detroit, and can't wait to be back!

@KHicksJr @tigers Soooo gooooood

@tigers This is what happens when you drink lead contaminated water

Y'ALL WERE SAYING?

@JamesSurowiecki Are you suggesting we should change the Senate, too? Logically it seems so.

There's no good civic argument for the electoral college. It was arguably necessary to ensure the ratification of the Constitution, but it's an anti-democratic device that gives some American citizens far more voting power than others, based purely on where they live.