@withqwerty No problem. Please keep up the content, definitely have a fan 🤙
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ErikTao
88 posts
@Chumastic1280 that is a good question, and better suited to the many betting experts on here than myself i'm afraid
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no surprise. just a matter of time before the PL inks a deal, even though betfair, fully regulated, has existed here for more than 25 years. i wrote a short piece about the upcoming world cup and prediction markets, but really we need to start with frank and his hair: thisismy.team/footnotes/pred…
Polymarket@Polymarket
We're honored to be named the Exclusive Prediction Market Partner of LALIGA — the 1st major European soccer league to strike a deal with prediction markets. The official event contracts for teams like Real Madrid & FC Barcelona now live exclusively on Polymarket.
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@L8rG8r007 @Puppetbet @BettingIsCool Yep. Its extremely easy to make money gambling, the hard part is getting money down. You have 3 options, 1) give up 2) get creative to get money down or 3, hardest of them all 3) beat sharps/exchanges.
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Interesting take, but is this based on actual data or more of a general opinion?
From 25 years of experience, I've found the exact opposite. Bookmakers absolutely do limit you because you win — consistently beating CLV is the #1 trigger.
Which bookmaker(s) did you target with this strategy? How much longer did those accounts last compared to just sharp betting?
Here are my own findings on this topic:
x.com/BettingIsCool/…
WinnerOdds@winnerodds
Bookmakers don't limit you because you win. They limit you because you don't look like one of them. Thread 👇
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@Puppetbet @L8rG8r007 @BettingIsCool Nah, because his steamers model can only be executed on soft bookmakers, not exchanges or sharp books. user was asking if he uses exchanges, you cant for his steamers tool. No idea on the rest... same will apply.
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@Chumastic1280 @L8rG8r007 @BettingIsCool If he is kicked out of the softs, doesn't matter the market what market his steamers target, does it?
I believe the other guy's question is more along those lines.
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@L8rG8r007 @BettingIsCool No he doesnt use exchanges, he chases Norwegian handball or Lithuanian Basketball steamers on softs.
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@BettingIsCool Id assume it be using exchanges right? The issue there is the odds are much worse
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@BettingIsCool When you bet Norwegian handball for a 4% edge your accounts never going to last is it.
If you make smart money instead of chasing it you will be better off in the long term, regardless of closures
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@sprintvalley @geoffbanksbet Read it again, friend. Never said racing was thriving.
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I predicted the effective demise of betfair over a decade ago
They scoffed then too
ErikTao@Chumastic1280
@geoffbanksbet What abut you geoff, will you be gone? BTW, if you think 365/flutter will be out of business you're deluded.
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@nellbergcricket Id love there to be a minute market on reviews. Just back overs each time
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Hi can I bet on over 10.5 balls in an over today please
Account holder name is A Singh
Max bet please
Tyty
#IPL2026
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Gods work
rahul@withqwerty
matching player IDs across opta, transfermarkt, fbref, fotmob and 25+ other football data providers sucks. spreadsheets, fuzzy matching, hallucinated IDs. the reep register fixes this: an open source crosswalk of 430k players and 45k teams across all of them. updated weekly. github.com/withqwerty/reep
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@geoffbanksbet That doesn't make sense Geoff, you know it doesn't. Also 14 new sportbooks have entered the regulated market in 6 months. 4 since Rachel Reeves announcement. All of them have punitive deposit limits at sign up (anticipating regulations). if so bad why enter market?
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Because we do not service millions of customers
ErikTao@Chumastic1280
@geoffbanksbet Allow me to counter - Betfair markets on Football & Cricket are thriving, UK & Abroad. If you mean the demise of racing liquidity, then yes. Back to the point, why does Flutter & 365 die in 3 years but not you?
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@geoffbanksbet What abut you geoff, will you be gone? BTW, if you think 365/flutter will be out of business you're deluded.
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In the current environment, I cannot see any of these companies lasting more than 3 years
Flutter
365
Entain
Evoke
All of them will be gone. The list is long and distinguished of major corporations who died at the hand of poor business decisions
The 'millions of customers' model is slaughtered by regulations their customers will simply not sign up to. Is impossible to administer or enforce.
The share prices in these companies is tanking. None of them depend upon oil!
So they become the offshore entities they used to be.
Or they die. As does every sport and entity that depends on their money
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@geoffbanksbet Flutter, B365, Unibet and Smarkets to name a few have all rolled this largely out, some more recent than others. The issue is if friction-less doesn't work, which in many cases it does, but concede sometimes doesn't.
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Along with many gambling businesses
But that won't bother this regulator
Chris Fawcett@chrisgambler247
🚨 Rumour is frictionless affordability checks pilot has failed. Despite this in a few weeks the Gambling Commission could sign off on mandatory checks on anyone losing £1k a day or £2k over 90 days. If this happens higher stakes betting in the UK online regulated market is over
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@Jojoofafrica01 @DeItaone AI engagement slop. conjure your own words
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RUSSIA'S LAVROV: MIDDLE EAST CRISIS MAY SPILL OVER INTO A WIDER CONFLICT
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@CaiseyPaul @chrisgambler247 Paul knows! Been saying this all evening.
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@chrisgambler247 It doesn't need to be mandated for it to be widely implemented across the industry, if it's in the LCCP guidance it's used. Unless your betting with small firms who may not have the team/tech to do so.
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🚨 Rumour is frictionless affordability checks pilot has failed. Despite this in a few weeks the Gambling Commission could sign off on mandatory checks on anyone losing £1k a day or £2k over 90 days. If this happens higher stakes betting in the UK online regulated market is over
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@betwithjake @chrisgambler247 @bazapeps Ultimately, if you are worried about bfex (im impacted too) the checks are largely done already. Im not saying its good, but it wont get worse (unless CRA matching fails altogether)
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@betwithjake @chrisgambler247 @bazapeps Profiling doesn't just work on -net losses; it also looks at failed card attempts; session lengths and volume btw. Depends on when you racked up losses as some have become more recent than others in oversight
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@betwithjake @chrisgambler247 @bazapeps You will get a crap depo limit (like most do already) and can only raise via docs. Keep a big balance
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@Chumastic1280 @chrisgambler247 @bazapeps ah ok so if this comes in, it doesn't mean mandatory bank statements etc?
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@betwithjake @chrisgambler247 @bazapeps .... the number 1 goal of frictionless is to avoid things such as doc submission, easiest way to do this is enforcing a punitive depo limit, job done
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@betwithjake @chrisgambler247 @bazapeps .... because on bfex a frictionless check has happened and your deemed ok to continue gambling.... you will no doubt have a deposit limit as of now unless arrangement with client manager.
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