Nagato

Sugar trade - $SB / $SUGA (LSE) Added, now in half position. Close enough to my cut zone (21EMA on daily). Risk now stands at 0.5% of trading account. Not the full position as we are yet to trend up in medium-term (past 20 weeks).

Wheat trade - $ZW / $WEAT Not disappointing when it comes to volatility. Should have trimmed when it got away from my 21EMA. It just reached the risk level there, but not quite. Something to note for the future. In any case, still full position. Every system is ultimately discretionary. Sometimes enough is enough, though, and trim is warranted, even if it technically didn't run as far so it doesn’t trigger the system to signal it.

In a hyperinflationary environment, the single most important financial decision you can make, and the one almost nobody who lives through one is psychologically prepared to make, is to maximize fixed-rate, long-duration debt against productive assets, because the entire mechanism of hyperinflation is a wealth transfer from creditors to debtors, and the only question that matters, in the moment it begins, is which side of that transfer you have positioned yourself on. The math is brutal in its simplicity. If you owe a bank $400,000 at a 30-year fixed rate of 6%, and the currency loses 90% of its purchasing power over five years, you are, in real terms, paying back the bank in lottery tickets. The house you bought with that loan retains its real value, because it is a physical asset that the inflation cannot touch. The bank, which lent you future dollars and is now receiving past dollars, takes the loss. You take the gain. The transfer happens silently, invisibly, on the loan amortization schedule, every single month, while the people around you who saved in cash, held bonds, or refused on principle to take on debt watch their lifetime savings evaporate in real time. The Weimar industrialists who emerged from 1923 with their fortunes intact, and in many cases multiplied, were not the ones who hoarded gold or moved their assets to Switzerland. They were the ones who borrowed aggressively, in the local currency, at fixed rates, against factories and farms and apartment buildings, and let the inflation pay off the debt while they collected rents and revenues that repriced upward with the currency. The same pattern played out in Hungary in 1946, in Argentina in the 1980s, in Zimbabwe in 2008, and in every other major inflation event of the modern era. The borrowers won. The savers lost. The people in the middle, who tried to be cautious and hold cash and wait for clarity, were the ones whose lives were quietly destroyed. The reason almost nobody acts on this knowledge in advance is that the human brain treats debt as danger, and treats saving as safety, and these instincts are correct in stable monetary environments and exactly inverted in unstable ones. The middle class, which has been trained for generations to fear debt, is structurally the worst-positioned group when the currency starts to fail. The wealthy, who use leverage as a tool, and who hold the productive assets that the leverage was used to acquire, are structurally the best-positioned. The asymmetry is not an accident. It is the entire mechanism by which monetary debasement transfers wealth from one class to another, every time it has happened, in every country it has happened in, for as long as currencies have existed. You do not need to predict the timing. You need to structure your balance sheet, in the years before the event, in a way that benefits if it arrives. Fixed rate, long duration, productive assets. The trade has worked for 400 years. It will work for the next 400. Almost nobody will run it, because almost nobody is willing to be the person who took on debt while everyone they know was paying theirs down, which is, as it has always been, the entire reason the people who do run it end up owning everything on the other side.

Gold & Silber dürften hier vorerst einen Bodengefunden haben. Denke wir sehen bei beiden nun eine Rally zum 50DMA, der liegt bei Gold $4950 bei und bei Silver bei $83,5, dann sehen wir weiter. Habe heute mal wieder 2-3 Minenaktien gekauft, die 40-50% korrigiert hatten.