
Sambath
120 posts

Sambath
@sambath47
Gaining wisdom through actions. Interested in learning leadership, productivity and digital leverage




Great find. Basically from old investor deck + fundraising amounts: Looks like Celestial has been direct customers of $SIVE. So: $MRVL is likely buying lasers direct from $SIVE now instead of through Poet (which bought Sivers lasers to package them). Since Celestial is designed around Sivers lasers originally. Marvell probably prepared to vertically integrate away packaging IP + assembly for higher margins anyway. Going direct to $MRVL is very bullish for $SIVE.









Saw a few numbers today around Google's cost savings. To pull down the equivalent level of compute, they would like need to spend somewhere between 50-60b more on capex vs. where they are now. OAI also obviously doesn't have the ad engine to fund their capex. They need to fund with losses. The problem is that if you do not have an obviously leading/more capable model, your pricing is capped against competitors. They can't raise sub fees, they can't raise API. Google has massive distribution and data sets to train on. They can continue to optimize inference to the TPU. They can deploy Gemini across dozens of surfaces, not just a chat bot app. To make things even worse, Anthropic's models seem to have cracked the single biggest current enterprise/agentic use case in coding and are holding their advantage. From this moment in time, only a few things can reduce OAI's losses: 1) Google prices way higher to give them space to raise 2) They come out with a novel breakthrough (unlikely) 3) infra providers making money absorb some with them (Azure - no, ORCL-can't, Neos, oooooff tough) 4) NVDA cuts the prices of racks They are going to have to research very hard to get through this moment. Google, as I've said before needs to step on their neck with pricing






Drillship day rates always move in strong trends, either sharply up for years or sharply down for years. Now firmly up: from $250K in 2022 to $400K today. And remember, that’s just the cost to rent one for a single day. Long $VAL.








