Salvetti Claudio

Threads v2 Kung Fu: twitter.com/ClaudioSalvett… Music: twitter.com/ClaudioSalvett… Games: twitter.com/ClaudioSalvett… Movies: twitter.com/ClaudioSalvett… Books: twitter.com/ClaudioSalvett… Chirping about investing, is all over there, and my work for the Nuclear Industry is nowhere to be found.

@DariusDale42 @42Macro I did some research on this regard. For anyone who wants to spice things up. 🤪 x.com/ClaudioSalvett…

Btw, we make it very easy for @42Macro clients to implement a customized version of KISS. For example, instead of 60/30/10 Stocks/Gold/Bitcoin, young investors can allocate to 10/30/60 Stocks/Gold/Bitcoin using the same tools. Moreover, older investors can allocate to 60/30/10 Stocks/Bonds/Gold. We just settled on 60/30/10 Stocks/Gold/Bitcoin because A) it is likely to remain highly effective at navigating this Fourth Turning and B) it resonates with most investors. The quantitative risk management overlays that we use to determine the volatility targets and dynamic position sizing in KISS are customized for all asset classes and published to @42Macro clients six days per week. It's super easy to follow along with KISS using customized allocations or alternative asset classes.

@bleichenberg @42Macro 👍

@ClaudioSalvetti @42Macro Thanks Claudio, @ClaudioSalvetti

Here's a small contribution for the @42Macro community, and anyone else who is interested in simple portfolios created using Python and Machine learning. There's quite a bit of distilled effort in these few pages, hope it's useful. scribd.com/document/83958…

@tdarling1 No new nuclear needed, shelf those small and micro modular reactors!

On the heels of the DeepSeek upset, the market is pricing as though we are suddenly oversupplied with energy $URA -10.2% $SRUUF -4.9% $XLU -3.5% $WTIC - 2.5% $XLE -1.35%

@Atypical_CA @tdarling1 Jajajaja, that escalated quickly 🤣

@tdarling1 Ah fuck… I’m buying calls now 😭

I smell something brewing…

@BilalTariqBTC @shawnsyx68 @DariusDale42 Same here, I spend a lot less time warching the markets and implement a variation of KISS. What I work on, is generally built on top of what I get from @DariusDale42

@shawnsyx68 @DariusDale42 I feel the exact same way and that's why i signed up

Good morning and God bless to our global #Team42 community! Today’s Key Macro Question(s): Will 2025 resemble 2024? That’s a loaded question given that we know there will be a lot of CHANGE from a macro thematic perspective including, but not limited to (in no particular order): 1. Growth (e.g., US slowing + Europe and Japan accelerating + China temporarily suspending its decline) 2. Inflation (e.g., bottoming and accelerating from cycle troughs in the US, Europe, and China) 3. US fiscal policy (e.g., DOGE + tax cuts) 4. US regulatory policy (e.g., much more M&A + much more production of fossil fuels) 5. US immigration policy (e.g., closing the southern border to millions of illegal migrants + opening the Silicon Valley and NYC borders to more H1Bs)  6. US trade policy and likely retaliation (e.g., China counters fresh US tariffs with fresh tariffs of their own and/or yuan devaluation) 7. Side effects of CHANGING US trade policy and likely retaliation (e.g., stagflation domestically + sympathy currency devaluations across Europe and Asia to counter China’s increased competitiveness) 8. US monetary policy (e.g., stop cutting policy rates + ending balance sheet runoff + new backup Fed chair) 9. Relative monetary (e.g., Fed stops easing + ECB, BOE, SNB, PBOC continues easing) 10. US Treasury net financing policy (e.g., Debt Ceiling impasse = TGA spenddown + Debt Ceiling resolution = TGA replenishment + less bill issuance and more coupon issuance) That is a lot of CHANGE. Some good for asset markets (e.g., tax cuts, much more M&A, and DOGE) and some bad for asset markets (e.g., tariffs, a too-strong USD, and stagflation lowering the strike price of the “Fed put”).  Probably the most concerning dynamic regarding all this CHANGE is the fact that our global liquidity cycle analysis confirms 2025 features one of the most significant global refinancing needs ever across both public and private sector debt. How much balance sheet capacity will global investors have to roll this debt? How much will they want to in the context of the laundry list of CHANGES we just detailed? 2024 YTD performance of key asset classes: Stocks $SPY +25% Mega Cap Tech $QQQ +28% Small Caps $IWM +11% Long Bond $TLT -12% US Dollar $UUP +13% Gold $IAU +26% Commodities $PDBC -4% #Bitcoin +121% #Ethereum +50% #Solana +87% That is a lot of potential energy in the form of lopsided positioning associated with these exaggerated moves. Lopsided positioning is not a catalyst in isolation, insomuch that valuation alone will not cause any of these markets to reverse course. Lopsided positioning does, however, act as an accelerant to market performance — both to the upside and downside — when significant CHANGE is digested well or digested poorly. Be careful out there not to extrapolate 2024 or even post-election performance well into your expectations of future asset prices until you develop a high-probability scenario for the SIZE, SEQUENCE, and SCOPE of the aforementioned key global macro thematic CHANGES. Our fundamental research can help with that and our KISS and Dr. Mo signals can help you risk manage your portfolio profitability amid the heightened uncertainty.  Please like and repost if you found this note helpful. Thank you! Consistently making money and protecting gains in financial markets requires a lot of time, expertise, and computational power. Investors partner with 42 Macro because we do the heavy lifting and answer the hard questions for them. See for yourself: 42macro.com/42-macro-sampl…. Have a great day! -Skipper

@tdarling1 Same 😅

Worst day of the year for me It is what it is…

@tdarling1 Thanks!

@ClaudioSalvetti 3M time series price momentum. Actually, instead of 60 trading days (3M), I use 55 days as of the Friday close for the week ahead. Gives a slight edge on where the puck is going.

You know what day it is! 🐫 US #CPI on tap this morning with the @ClevelandFed projecting headline +0.26% m/m and +2.7% y/y and core +0.27% mom and +3.3% y/y. An acceleration ♨️, but a "known-known" Only deviations will move markets Let's dig into the market 🧮! x.com/NickTimiraos/s…

@VaidotasSegenis Thanks!

Yes, I will talk about it

@tdarling1 Thank you in advance, and I completely understand if you’d rather not disclose any trade secrets behind your process.

@tdarling1 I want to define a "financial landscape" to experiment with some genetic algorithms, and the first step is identifying a handful of tickers and classifying them as bullish, bearish, or neutral.

@VaidotasSegenis @myfractalrange Can you say how you determine the "bullish", "neutral" or "bearish" of the instrument without revealing trade secrets?

$BTC update Beautiful @myfractalrange

21/ Instead, it offers a thoughtful exploration of revolution, morality, and the enduring struggle between hope and despair.

20/ At three books long, the Mistborn trilogy is an accessible, highly recommended entry into epic fantasy. It’s already complete, well-written, and avoids the pitfall of being pure escapism.

An update on the books thread, partly because there has been a big upgrade on the library itself. Link to the old thread: twitter.com/ClaudioSalvett…