Time bomb Climate
78 posts
AutoTweet: #Prognoza (20260322) globalnej anomalii temperatury powietrza (Prognoza #ECMWF 0p25, okr. referencyjny: reanaliza ERA5 1991-2020) #pogoda #meteomodelifs #prognozaglobalna
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AutoTweet: Rozkład anomalii temperatury dobowej i miesięcznej wg reanalizy #ERA5. #meteomodelera5 #pogoda #klimat
Polski
AutoTweet: Roczne, miesięczne i dobowe anomalie temperatury wg reanalizy #ERA5 w rozbiciu na regiony. #meteomodelera5 #pogoda #klimat
Polski
@WorldClimateSvc How can I access to those Nino 3.4 and Relative Nino 3.4 graphs?
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Daily Niño3.4 SST anomaly: 0.00
The transition is under way.
However, the relative index (rNiño3.4) still has some distance to go before reaching neutral.
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Time bomb Climate retweetledi
Ok, here is the data with uncertainty. I’ve also thrown in the Chinese global temperature dataset for good measure.
I suppose your next claim will be that it’s a grand conspiracy of all the world scientists from the US, UK, EU, Japan, China, etc.? 🙄
Steve Milloy@JunkScience
Actual garbage here. Fake data. Fake precision. No uncertainty. Zeke, if you were an actual scientist, you would be able to predict something vs. peddling nonsense graphs.
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The January 2026 global average temperature came in as the 5th highest on record in the ERA5 dataset, behind 2025, 2024, 2020 and 2016.
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Time bomb Climate retweetledi
Much of the US is experiencing extreme cold temperatures. But we should not read too much into this when it comes to climate change; its both not an unusual day for global temperatures, and there is not much evidence that climate change is making cold extremes more common.
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December 2025 is the 5th warmest December on record in the @CopernicusECMWF dataset.
2025 is the joint-second warmest on record, <0.01°C cooler than 2023.
2025 is also the warmest year without El Nino, shattering the record set in 2020 by a massive margin 0.16°C.
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Monthly update:
November 2025 ended up +0.886°C above the 1981-2010 baseline in the ERA5 dataset, ranking as the 3rd warmest November globally after 2023 and 2024
While RONI index for Sep-Nov period was -0.85
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@LeonSimons8 @ryankatzrosene Southern Hemisphere and Antarctica will have the HOTTEST October on record in ERA5!
It is only in the Northern Hemisphere, which has a cool October (still 3rd anyway but closer to pre-2023 levels) that the global temperature will be 3rd warmest October on record.
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Jaysus... Northern Hemisphere closing out the month with one helluva bang!
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@PogodaMeteo Dlaczego nie ma aktualizacji od 14 lipca? Zróbcie to teraz.
Polski
AutoTweet: #Prognoza (20250717) globalnej anomalii temperatury powietrza (Prognoza #ECMWF 0p25, okr. referencyjny: reanaliza ERA5 1991-2020) #pogoda #meteomodelifs #prognozaglobalna
Polski
@EliotJacobson Now 2025 is certain to have at least a few days above 16.80°C (set on 13 August 2016)
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This is the time of year that sees the fastest growth of Antarctic sea-ice. Growth has slowed to a crawl.
Antarctic sea-ice extent currently ranks 3rd lowest on record, behind only (you guessed it) 2023 and 2024.
English
June 2025 is the third warmest on record in the
@CopernicusECMWF
dataset, after 2024 and 2023. It was:
+0.47°C above 1991-2020 average.
+0.65°C above 1981-2010 average.
+1.30°C above pre-industrial levels for May.
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@EliotJacobson On 10 July global surface temperature is 16.74°C in ERA5
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Over the next couple of weeks the planet will reach its annual maximum global surface temperature. It's very unlikely this year will set any type of record.
The only question left is the Over/Under wager on 17.0°C. I'll take the under.
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@EliotJacobson Very close but did not fall below 1.0°C in my calculation: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
5 and 6 July is slightly up again
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Breaking News!
Code Sikey!
For the first time since Dec. 1, 2022, the global mean surface temperature anomaly for a single day has dipped below 1.0°C above the 1850-1900 IPCC pre-industrial baseline.
Temperatures are forecast to rise back above 1.3°C in the coming days.
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@EliotJacobson Which app are you using to create this graph?
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@LeonSimons8 @ECMWF @CopernicusECMWF @tugberksamur @OceanTerra The same graph except it is 1981-2010 please
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As expected (see June 2017), after two years that averaged +1.60 °C, June 2025 was 'only' +1.30 °C above pre-industrial.
The lowest anomaly month since May 2023.
Impacted by a Relative La Niña of -0.67 (RONI centred on March, assuming a 3-month delayed global temp impact).
Leon Simons 🌍@LeonSimons8
I posted this 2 years ago. After which we experienced 2 years of 1.6°C above the Paris' pre-industrial (1850-1900) baseline. We expected a big jump in global warming because greenhouse gas emissions keep increasing, aerosols decreased and Earth's Energy Imbalance had doubled.
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@EliotJacobson June 2025 is currently:
+0.476°C above 1991-2020 levels
+0.647°C above 1981-2010 levels
+1.309°C above pre-industrial
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Here's an update on the 365-day running mean for the global surface temperature anomaly.
The last 365 days have come in at 1.556°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline. But the average is dropping fast and we may be under 1.5°C by the time the year is out.
Stay tuned!
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@EliotJacobson Still more than 0.6°C above 1981-2010 average for June in the ERA5 dataset
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1.6°C update.
Based on the GFS predictions for the next 10 days and the temperatures from July, 2023 onward, I don't think 1.600°C for the 2-year running average is going to happen. Oh, so close!
Nevertheless, the rumors of the coming collapse have not been exaggerated ...
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