Stephen McIntyre

90.4K posts

Stephen McIntyre

Stephen McIntyre

@ClimateAudit

Katılım Ağustos 2015
843 Takip Edilen72.4K Takipçiler
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Stephen McIntyre
Stephen McIntyre@ClimateAudit·
another engineering accomplishment by @detgodhab.
Savonarola@detgodehab

@ClimateAudit @marcelcrok Yes, the MBH diagram is for the post-1820 step. You are right that the statistical significance (in the corrected map) is due to the inclusion of instrumental temperature series in the proxy network. These only extend back to 1760. Before that, very grey maps.

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Alexander's Cartographer
Alexander's Cartographer@cartographer_s·
Views of Upper Canada - Elizabeth Simcoe, late 18th century
Alexander's Cartographer tweet mediaAlexander's Cartographer tweet mediaAlexander's Cartographer tweet mediaAlexander's Cartographer tweet media
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Stephen McIntyre
Stephen McIntyre@ClimateAudit·
I think that you've under-estimated the degree to which the religious distinction is an alter ego for ethnic nationalist distinction. In Iraq, for example, the demarcation line between Sunni and Shia almost exactly corresponds to the Bronze Age demarcation line between Assyria and Babylonia. In Iran, can you really distinguish between Iranian nationalism and Shia? I think that commenters are often too quick to ascribe foreign passion to religious fanaticism when it is really little different from national patriotism of the sort encouraged in USA. x.com/ClimateAudit/s…
Stephen McIntyre tweet media
Stephen McIntyre@ClimateAudit

re-upping something I noticed when ISIS first arose. The below two maps compare (L) modern Shia-Sunni-Kurd territory; (2) Late Bronze (~1250 BC) Babyonia-Assyria. Border between Shia-Sunni and Babylonia-Assyria has changed only slightly in 3000+years.

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Going Underground
Going Underground@GUnderground_TV·
Col. Lawrence Wilkerson: 'The world is SLEEPWALKING into the potential use of NUCLEAR WEAPONS in the war on Iran.' 'I think the diplomatic instrument for the war on Iran is moribund because we have no diplomatic instrument. We have Witkoff and Kushner, who are making money. That's about the size of it. I don't know what we're trying to do other than affect by bombing and missiles what we couldn't affect any other way, and it's not going to work. It's simply not going to work... Particularly when you have the depth of China🇨🇳, the world's largest economy, on the other side, and I would say also the depth of the world's most accomplished military right now, to include its defence-industrial base, Russia🇷🇺, on your side. This is unparalleled, in terms of its potential for going much wider, much deeper, much more profoundly, maybe even to nuclear weapons use. And everyone seems to be sleepwalking into it.' —Col. Lawrence Wilkerson, former Chief of Staff at the US State Department Watch the full interview in the quoted post below👇
Going Underground@GUnderground_TV

🚨NEW EPISODE OF GOING UNDERGROUND⚡️ Col. Lawrence Wilkerson: The World Is SLEEPWALKING Into Potential NUCLEAR WAR Over Iran -Is the war on Iran really a war on China? -What is the threat of possible nuclear escalation caused by the war on Iran? -What dangers do Americans face at home? All this and more on this episode of Going Underground with former Chief of Staff at the US State Department Col. Lawrence Wilkerson

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Maryam Jamshidi (msjamshidi.bsky.social)
The extreme heat makes it nearly impossible to inhabit these areas without accessible and reliable drinking water. This seems designed to force the civilian population from these areas. Which is partly why these kinds of attacks are treated as war crimes
Ryan Rozbiani@RyanRozbiani

U.S. Strikes Water Infrastructure in Jask, Iran Missiles hit power facilities and desalination pumps at the port of Bonji village, according to Hormozgan provincial officials. The attack cut drinking water supplies to several villages in western Jask County. Authorities are assessing the damage and working to restore water service.

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Stephen McIntyre
Stephen McIntyre@ClimateAudit·
at-Tanf controls the main highway between Baghdad and Damascus - a trade route that has existed for millennia.
Al Mayadeen English@MayadeenEnglish

Speaking to Al Mayadeen on Friday, Professor Mohammad Marandi said that the general policy of the Iranians is that the #US "must leave the region" and that the US, alongside the Israeli entity, is the source of all "the misery that the people of the region are going through." Discussing the significance of the al-Tanf base in #Syria, Professor Marandi said that the US used that base in violation of Syria's sovereignty, which continues to this day. He explained that the US uses that base in order to "maintain control" over Syria, #Iraq, and #Jordan, stressing that "it is a very key base. Its geography is key. It's close to Saudi Arabia. It's close to Jordan. It's close to Syria." @s_m_marandi #USBases #IranWar #USAttackIran #USIran #WarOnIran

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Stephen McIntyre
Stephen McIntyre@ClimateAudit·
Shia "militias" in Iraq are part of the Iraqi military. But you raise an interesting question about who paid for ISIS and all the jihadis in Syria and Iraq. When Trump stopped funding of Operation Timber Sycamore, the number of deaths in Syria dropped almost immediately. So who was funding ISIS, al-Nusra, Ahrar al-Sham, Jund al-Iqsa, Jaish al-Islam? Why hasn't anyone been sanctioned and prosecuted? Is it because the money came from Operation Timber Sycamore, the Gulf States and Israel?
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Edward N Luttwak
Edward N Luttwak@ELuttwak·
Iran can no longer export oil. Because its usable foreign exchange reserves are v small, the Gov of Iran was spending the money credited each day for that day's oil loadings. Now there are none, hence the Shia militias of Iraq, Hezbollah & the Houthis are, or will soon be, unpaid
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Stephen McIntyre
Stephen McIntyre@ClimateAudit·
@BitcoinArchive I'm old enough to remember US officials criticizing Justin Trudeau (rightly) for de-banking Alberta truckers protesting against Canadian federal government vaccine mandates.
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Bitcoin Archive
Bitcoin Archive@BitcoinArchive·
TRUMP ADMIN TO USE “DE-BANKING” TO TARGET GROUPS
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Stephen McIntyre
Stephen McIntyre@ClimateAudit·
@AnnCoulter Grok is actually pretty good at finding stuff. In many cases, I'm finding it more useful than Google for searches.
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Stephen McIntyre
Stephen McIntyre@ClimateAudit·
for sure. Role of Obama administration in initiation of the pernicious Operation Timber Sycamore was totally laundered by US media. Unfortunately, Pompeo et al continued key Uniparty policies in Syria during Trump 45 administration. Under the radar (due to preoccupation of media and public with Russia collusion hoax), Uniparty implemented Uniparty anti-Iran policies in Trump 45 which even Cheney and Bush II neocons had been unable to implement in second Bush II term. Trump 47 has turned into Bush III. (George the Third so to speak.)
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Chris Martz
Chris Martz@ChrisMartzWX·
Forest fire burn rates in Canadian and Alaskan boreal forests were higher than they are today prior to 1900. Chavardès et al. (2022) found that, 🗨️ “𝘍𝘰𝘳 𝘮𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 16 𝘧𝘪𝘳𝘦-𝘩𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘺 𝘴𝘵𝘶𝘥𝘺 𝘴𝘪𝘵𝘦𝘴, 𝘣𝘶𝘳𝘯 𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘴 𝘣𝘦𝘵𝘸𝘦𝘦𝘯 1700 𝘢𝘯𝘥 1990 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘸𝘦𝘥 𝘢 𝘱𝘢𝘳𝘵𝘪𝘤𝘶𝘭𝘢𝘳𝘭𝘺 𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘰𝘯𝘨 𝘥𝘦𝘤𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘳𝘦𝘯𝘥 𝘥𝘶𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘭𝘺- 𝘵𝘰 𝘮𝘪𝘥-1900𝘴... 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘺𝘯𝘤𝘩𝘳𝘰𝘯𝘪𝘤𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘥𝘦𝘤𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘳𝘦𝘯𝘥 𝘢𝘤𝘳𝘰𝘴𝘴 𝘮𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘴𝘪𝘵𝘦𝘴 𝘴𝘶𝘨𝘨𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘭𝘢𝘳𝘨𝘦 𝘴𝘱𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘢𝘵𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘯𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘢𝘵𝘮𝘰𝘴𝘱𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘤 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘥𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘴 𝘥𝘳𝘰𝘷𝘦 𝘢 𝘥𝘦𝘤𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘦 𝘪𝘯 𝘧𝘪𝘳𝘦 𝘢𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘢𝘤𝘳𝘰𝘴𝘴 𝘣𝘰𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘭 𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘕𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘩 𝘈𝘮𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘢.” And while these declines have continued to present day throughout central and eastern Canada, increases have been observed at the northwestern sites since the 1980s, which the authors attribute to increasingly favorable “fire weather” conditions (i.e., hotter and drier). They also state that global warming may reverse the trends in central and eastern Canada. 🔗connectsci.au/wf/article/31/… While increased dryness may indeed be a contributing factor, it's worth noting that a wet springs are arguably more important as precipitation allows vegetation to grow lush then dry out once summer and fall come. As far as temperature goes, I have seen some compelling data suggesting that air temperatures are not all that important for fire severity. Keeley et al. (2021) studied this in California; there was little correlation between maximum air temperature reached during a fire and its overall burn area. 🔗science.org/doi/10.1126/sc… Recent increases in fire burn area (in my assessment) are primarily due to two things: 1⃣ The buildup of small-diameter ground fuels (e.g., leaves and twigs) on the forest floor from decades of fire exclusion (though this is a more significant factor in the Western U.S. than it is in Canada). 2⃣ A return to normal pre-industrial fire conditions. What occurred in the 18th and 19th centuries is the norm; we have been in a rather benign period and need to learn to adapt and live in harmony with nature as opposed to trying to control it.
Chris Martz tweet mediaChris Martz tweet media
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Stephen McIntyre
Stephen McIntyre@ClimateAudit·
This is Steele dossier level "intelligence". You savaged the intel agencies for using Steele dossier allegations, sourcing of which did not meet standards. And now you are presenting equally questionable material as gold standard. One side is as bad as the other.
Richard Grenell@RichardGrenell

This is why @GavinNewsom doesn’t want IDs to vote. Just look what he did with China during Covid.

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Stephen McIntyre
Stephen McIntyre@ClimateAudit·
here's a plot of deaths from war and terrorism in Syria and Iraq from 2000-2025, highlighting the Operation Timber Sycamore period when US and Gulf states were financing and supplying Al Qaeda, ISIS and other jihadis. Death toll was FAR higher than in the main Iraq war. Trump's decided to end financing to Timber Sycamore in July 2017 following his meeting with Putin. But this unique sensible decision received no commendation at the time as it was overwhelmed with collusion hoax allegations.
Stephen McIntyre tweet media
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Thomas Massie
Thomas Massie@RepThomasMassie·
@alexbruesewitz CCP didn’t spend $30 million to buy a congressional seat in Kentucky, or give Trump $300 million to start a war.
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Stephen McIntyre
Stephen McIntyre@ClimateAudit·
Here is an estimate of biomass burned since mid-Holocene from "Regional paleofire regimes affected by non-uniform climate, vegetation and human drivers" #MOESM" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">nature.com/articles/srep1…. Massive wildfires are part of Canadian CLIMATE, not climate CHANGE. It's partisan to blame current wildfires on poor management or climate change. They are part of the cycle of life in boreal forest. ingonyama bagithi.
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Chris Martz
Chris Martz@ChrisMartzWX·
We are being told that the wildfires in Ontario are being driven / fueled by climate change. Specifically, more extreme heat and increased drought. So, unlike the journalists and most meteorologists regurgitating these talking points, I looked at the actual data since 1910. The average number of heatwave days (HWDs) in Canada (which are defined as ≥3 consecutive days with Tmax ≥90th percentile against the 1991–2020 mean per station) was 8.58% lower during the 60-year period 1965–2025 compared to 1911–1960, but the linear trend is not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. The last eight years have exhibited an unusually high number of HWDs, but it's far too early to tell if that's a sign of things to come or simply an artifact of natural variability. I used 113 long-term (≥80 years of daily data) GHCNd stations to complete this analysis. The only way one can get a meaningful increase in HWDs is to cherry-pick the x-axis starting date and ignoring pre-1960 data. Looking at droughts, I examined the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) from CRU (data is available through 2024). I then calibrated that to the Drought Monitor over the same period that I analyzed HWDs. There isn't much of a trend there; in fact there is a significant decrease in the worst of the drought categories despite the spike in 2023–24. Very few people these days in this line of work build datasets from scratch. But I do it because if someone makes a claim, it's very easy to test said claims against observational data. In most cases, alarmist narratives crumble with scrutiny. While alarmists get the basics right about the physics of Global Warming Theory in an “all else being equal” hypothetical, the real-world is a far more complex and details are hairy.
Chris Martz tweet mediaChris Martz tweet media
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