Ben See
66.7K posts
@ClimateBen
Literature Teacher sharing info/news on Rapid Extinction & Earth Systems Collapse. Urging radical, systemic, political-economic change to try to limit the doom.
3.5-4.6°C 2069-2100 Back of an envelope calculations: Warming levels 2100 A. 3.47°C (0.27/dec, 1.44°C in 2025) B. 4.16°C (0.35/sec, 1.54°C in 2025) C. 4.6°C (0.4/dec, 1.6°C in 2025) Warming levels 2069: A. 3.51°C (0.45/dec, 1.5°C in 2025) B. 4.56°C (0.65/dec, 1.7°C in 2025)
See: A) 0.35/dec carbonbrief.org/pace-of-global… B) 0.27 [0.2–0.4] °C per decade over 2015–2024 caused bycombination of greenhouse gas emissions being at an all-time high over the last decade (2014–2023), as well as reductions in the strength of aerosol cooling essd.copernicus.org/articles/17/26…
Claiming "societal collapse brought about by a collapse of global harvests before 2050" is a "deeply unlikely outcome" helps nobody. The question is: are we in a rapid minor/major mass extinction with societal collapse(s) due to a range of overlapping factors already beginning?
1. 'Large negative impacts' on food production at 2°C according to IPCC report AR6, the consensus on climate science 2. "Mass death" of billions of people will be certain at 3°C according to at least one IPCC Lead Author of AR6 3. 'Extinction' at 3-4°C by the 2050s? Plausible.
We've got a new pre-print just out The Economics of Climate Adaptation Optimism led by @matthewgburgess with @PatrickTBrown31 @mattkahn1966 Check out Matt B. for some excellent threads on the paper More summaries coming soon to S*bsta*ck! osf.io/preprints/soca…
2°C by 2030-55, then 3°C by 2048-83 (SSP5-8.5). 2°C by 2046, then 3°C by 2092 (SSP2-4.5). esd.copernicus.org/articles/12/25…
Establishment scientists are lying to themselves and to all of us. 3°C and rising is close. Mass media newspapers should have this chart on their front pages every day.
1. 'Large negative impacts' on food production at 2°C according to IPCC report AR6, the consensus on climate science 2. "Mass death" of billions of people will be certain at 3°C according to at least one IPCC Lead Author of AR6 3. 'Extinction' at 3-4°C by the 2050s? Plausible.
BREAKING: scientists agree risk of worst-case 2°C global warming by 2030-55 (still totally ignored by mass media) is now painfully clear, extreme, and intensifying
Dear Journalists, What will be the consequences of 2°C and rising by 2030-55? 'Large negative impacts' on food production? "Mass death" of billions of people? 'Extinction'?
