Bandit-Red-One

@BullTheoryio Just buy your own BTC or Sats with after tax fiat. Then ignore it for 5 years, 10 years if you can.

If you invested $1,000,000 in this company a year ago, Today you would have nearly $6,000. A Bitcoin treasury company Nakamoto $NAKA crashed -99.30% in less than a year from its peak market cap of $24 billion to just $180 million erasing $23.3B in value. They company came under fire after the filing revealed that they just sold $20M worth of BTC at $70K which they bought at an average buying price of $118K, booking a -40% loss. The core issue is simple. Bitcoin is trading far below their cost basis, so the value of their treasury is shrinking while liabilities remain fixed. At the same time, the stock has collapsed below $1 for 30+ consecutive days, which directly triggers Nasdaq non compliance. If this is not fixed, the stock is expected to be delisted by 8 June 2026. Once delisted: liquidity drops → institutional access reduces → raising capital becomes extremely difficult. Now look at the debt side. Nakamoto originally raised $510 Million through a PIPE and $200 Million in senior secured convertible notes when it launched. In December 2025, it refinanced that convertible debt with a $210 Million Bitcoin-backed loan from Kraken. That loan is backed by the same Bitcoin that is now 40% underwater. With the stock collapsed and equity financing unavailable, their only options left are cash reserves or selling more Bitcoin at a loss, which is exactly what just happened. So the company is losing on every side. Bitcoin holdings are underwater 40% below cost. Equity value has collapsed -99%. Capital access is weakening due to delisting risk. And with no strong stock price, they cannot raise new capital to buy more Bitcoin or service their debt. This removes the main advantage of the treasury model, the ability to raise new capital against a strong stock price. Now compare this to MARA Holdings and Strategy. MARA holds 38,689 BTC with a cost basis of around $80,900 per BTC. Their Bitcoin is also underwater, but the gap is smaller. They recently sold 15,133 BTC at $65,300, also below cost but that was a strategic decision, not a survival move. They used the $1.1 Billion in proceeds to pay down debt, cutting total convertible debt from $3.3B to $2.3B, a 30% reduction. By retiring those notes at a 9% discount, they captured $88 Million in immediate value. Their market cap sits around $3.8 Billion. They still have $2.3B in convertible debt remaining, but they have Nasdaq compliance, institutional access, and the ability to keep raising capital. They are not being forced to sell to survive. They are selling to restructure and pivot toward AI and data center infrastructure. Now Strategy. MicroStrategy holds 762,099 BTC as of March 29, 2026, the largest corporate Bitcoin treasury in the world. Total acquisition cost is $57.69 Billion at an average purchase price of $75,694 per BTC. Total debt stands at $8.2 Billion in convertible notes. But here is the key difference from everyone else. MicroStrategy has $2.25 Billion in cash reserves sitting on the balance sheet enough to cover more than 2 years of dividend payments and debt obligations without selling a single Bitcoin. No major debt repayments are due until 2028. Their debt-to-equity ratio is just 0.16. They also have $11.4 Billion in remaining common stock ATM capacity and $30 Billion in preferred stock issuance capacity, meaning they can raise massive amounts of fresh capital at any time without touching their Bitcoin. Even if Bitcoin dropped to $25,000, their debt coverage ratio would still be 2.0x. They are not selling. They are still buying. Target is 1 million BTC by end of 2026. This is what separates the three. Nakamoto: completely broken. Cost basis $118K. Bitcoin now at $70K. Stock down -99%. Delisting risk by June 8. Selling Bitcoin at a loss just to survive. No cash buffer. No capital access. MARA: stressed but managing. Cost basis $80,900. Holds 38,689 BTC. Debt cut to $2.3B after restructuring. Sold Bitcoin below cost but used it strategically. Still Nasdaq compliant. Still has capital market access. MicroStrategy: built for this. Cost basis $75,694. Holds 762,099 BTC. Debt $8.2B but $2.25B cash on hand. No repayments until 2028. Debt coverage 2x even at $25K Bitcoin. $41B+ in remaining capital raising capacity. Still buying. The Bitcoin treasury model only works when three things align, a low enough cost basis, a strong stock price, and continuous access to capital. The moment any one of those breaks, the entire model flips against you.

@vrexec Did you mention: (1) capital gains tax on the $46K? (2) opportunity cost on the $200K?

I'm doing some back of the envelope math on buying vs renting. Say you buy a $1M house with 20% down at about 6% mortgage rate and plan to stay there for five years. Your principal paydown in the first five years is about $57,000, but you've paid about $230,000 in interest. You've also paid roughly $100,000 in property taxes, insurance, and maintenance. Say the house appreciated 2.5% every year — so when you sell it's worth about $1.13 million. Your all-in costs to sell are about 7.5% — brokerage commissions, transfer taxes, attorney fees, title insurance, and the inevitable post-inspection negotiation. On a $1.13M sale that's about $85K in fees. So you net about $1.046M. You still owe $743K on the mortgage. You walk away with about $303K in cash — your $200K down payment back, your $57K in principal, and about $46K in net profit from appreciation. Your non-recoverable costs — interest, property tax, insurance, maintenance — were about $330K over five years, or about $5,500/month. That's your effective rent. But you "made" $46K selling, or about $770/month — so your effective rent was about $4,700/month. Not bad, but you tied up $200K for five years to get there. And if appreciation was 1.5% instead of 2.5%, that net gain basically disappears and you're paying $5,400+/month in effective rent. And this assumes there's appreciation at all — and that something doesn't go wrong with your house that needs a major remodel or repair. On a five-year horizon at 6% rates, you need everything to go right on appreciation just to make ownership competitive with renting. The transaction costs eat most of your upside. What am I missing? Anything?

@HedgieMarkets Time to start that landscaping business.

🦔 Oracle laid off between 20,000 and 30,000 employees Tuesday morning, roughly 18% of its global workforce, via a single email sent at 6am EST with no prior warning. System access was revoked almost immediately after. The cuts are expected to free up $8-10 billion in cash flow. Oracle's stock has lost more than half its value since September 2025 and the company now carries over $124 billion in debt, up from $89 billion a year ago, with free cash flow running negative $10 billion last quarter. My Take Oracle posted a 95% jump in net income last quarter and still eliminated 18% of its workforce by email before most people finished their morning coffee. This is not a company in distress in the traditional sense. It's a company that made an enormous debt-funded bet on AI infrastructure and is now converting its workforce into cash flow to service that debt. We've covered Oracle's AI gamble for months. The $300 billion OpenAI deal through Stargate, $50 billion in capital expenditure this fiscal year, over $124 billion in total debt. Multiple US banks have pulled back from financing Oracle-linked data center projects. Bondholders have sued Oracle claiming it concealed how much additional debt the OpenAI deal would require. The credit default swap spread hit a three-year high earlier this year, meaning debt investors are genuinely nervous about getting paid back. The workers who got that 6am email built the products Oracle has monetized for decades. The bet that eliminated their jobs was made by people who were already paid regardless of how it turns out. That is the part of the AI infrastructure race that doesn't show up in the capex announcements. Hedgie🤗

@Handre Any chance we can know who in government? Who drew up the plan and signed off on it?

Cash for Clunkers destroyed $2.4 billion in working capital in 2009. The government paid dealers to pour sodium silicate into 690,000 perfectly functioning engines -- rendering them permanently inoperable. These weren't junkyard cars. The program required trade-ins to be drivable and insured. You had working vehicles that poor families desperately needed, and bureaucrats systematically destroyed them to boost GM sales (while GM was under government ownership, naturally). The environmental impact? Pure theater. Most clunkers got 18+ mpg -- hardly gas guzzlers. Meanwhile, building new cars generates 25 tons of CO2 per vehicle before they leave the factory. The program likely increased net emissions while making transportation less affordable for everyone earning under $50k.

Yes. If they'll abuse children, they'll take your organs. Recent and Notable Pediatrician Abuse Cases - Dr. Gabriel Moses Perez (2025): A San Antonio, Texas, pediatrician was arrested following allegations of aggravated sexual assault of a juvenile male patient. - Dr. Bryan Shanley Sack (2026): A pediatric urologist at Nationwide Children's-Toledo, was arrested and charged with possessing over 100 images of child sexual abuse material. He was immediately terminated from his position. - Dr. Earl Brian Bradley (2009-2011): A Delaware pediatrician sentenced to 14 consecutive life sentences without parole for sexually abusing at least 127 children over a 14-year period. - Dr. Anthony Barto (2018): A Pennsylvania pediatrician charged with sexually abusing patients, including an incident where he allegedly touched children's genitals during a checkup.

Do you believe there are doctors who would let you die (or worse) for the sake of harvesting organs? Not just in Canada or Spain, but here in the US?

@Igottafigh64510 So damned funny @Igottafigh64510 This is the exact music playing on The Weather Channel while "Snowpocalypse" was wiping out Atlanta and a school teacher gave birth on I-75 because she was stuck in the traffic 🤣🤣🤣

The accuracy tho😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

@Jetskigrizzly They've launched their own food trucks. Convenience. Consumption. Constipation.

90% of restaurants are competing to see who can microwave Sysco slop better btw

@N8actual @MattWalshBlog This is true.

@ClydeBandit @MattWalshBlog "Life is hard." ~Everyone, ever~

It's ridiculous that NASA is launching a mission around the Moon this week that will send humans farther into space than ever before and it's getting almost no attention. A landmark moment in the history of our species. History books will care about this moment even if you don't.

@darenadam8 Freedom just falling from the sky. Who knew it could be so easy?

More Western Civilization!

@poffin_iceland @LimitlesCobz Spot on, @poffin_iceland. Extend the timeline and every generation endures the same basic circus.

I have to say, I think millennials are just used to the world changing (for the worse) in about 10 year increments. Millennials : 1981-1996 Global catastrophes: 2001 - 9/11 2008 - the financial collapse 2014 - Normalization of large-scale migration and refugee crises 2020 - covid 2026 - ?

🚨 Do you understand what happened in the last 72 hours.. > Egypt shut down its shops at 9pm, mandated work-from-home Sundays, and the government internally called it "war economy mode".. four days after the IMF praised them and unlocked $2,300,000,000.. > Turkey's central bank burned through $30,000,000,000 in March defending the lira.. the finance minister everyone called a genius is now considering SELLING the national gold reserves.. > Pakistan's PM went on national TV on Eid and announced government salary cuts and a 50% fuel allocation reduction.. they approved a $358,000,000 "austerity fund" and nobody asked austerity from what.. > Russia banned cash exports above $100,000 and gold bars above 100 grams.. Putin signed it March 26.. called it fighting the shadow economy.. > Iraq banned 22 banks from USD transactions.. cashless mandate for ALL government institutions coming July 2026.. > South Korea launched a literal wartime economic response body on March 25.. the prime minister chairs it.. > India secretly created a $6,700,000,000 Economic Stabilisation Fund.. it wasn't in the news.. it was buried in a budget supplement.. > Lebanon's currency collapsed 98%.. the war added $14,000,000,000 in damage on top.. every single government on this list told their citizens "the economy is doing fine" within the last 30 days.. all of this.. a single week.. if you're not following me you're finding out about this 48 hours late from someone who read my post.. it's only getting crazier from here..

@not0nlin3 @MattWalshBlog Step right up, tough guy: The official website for U.S. Army recruiting and to start the enlistment/signup process is:goarmy.com You can also call for help: 1-888-550-ARMY (1-888-550-2769) Steps to join: goarmy.com/how-to-join/st…

@ClydeBandit @MattWalshBlog Your kids are volunteering to fight in the Middle East?

@BTC_RC_BTC @MattWalshBlog Hey tough guy, the official website to join the U.S. Army is: goarmy.com Find a recruiter near you or call 1-888-550-ARMY (1-888-550-2769)

@ClydeBandit @MattWalshBlog What a gay response

@Deeznutsback @MattWalshBlog Agreed . On both points.

@ClydeBandit @MattWalshBlog A you should be watching this with your children and grandchildren, B you should learn to do preventative maintenance

@KathMLee1 @MattWalshBlog Okay Dr PhD. Look up the difference between recruiting and the draft.

@ClydeBandit @MattWalshBlog Oh dear god. There isn't a military draft. Get your shit together you big baby. It sounds like you can't even take care of your family

@davewillis619 @MattWalshBlog Crazy he creeped my account like a middle school girl.

@ClydeBandit @MattWalshBlog What's also crazy to me is that your post wasn't necessarily about basketball as you were celebrating the success of someone fron Indiana. I'm beginning to question Matt's ability to perform basic reading comprehension.

Okay but you posted about basketball literally an hour ago. If you don’t have time to care about our country sending humans into space farther than they’ve ever been — a landmark achievement in the history of our species — then how do you have time to carve out for March Madness?

@autumnsdad1 It's just so good, Chris @autumnsdad1

The best song put out by The Guess Who..I have to go with These Eyes.. how about you?

@punt_rd This is so good. Thank you bassoon man!

Guitar solos re so overrated. What ‘Hotel California’ needs is a bassoon solo, right!?

@davewillis619 @MattWalshBlog Thanks, Dave. Everybody needs a wing man. But this combat veteran tank commander/tank platoon leader will stand on his desk in my tanker boots and tell him to his smug face that I don't give a damn what he cares about.

@MattWalshBlog Matt, you have 4 million followers and you are criticizing an account with less than 3,000 followers. What the hell are you doing?

@Bludwurm @MattWalshBlog I hope your mom's okay.

@ClydeBandit @MattWalshBlog Lol. I'm reading this at the hospital. My mom just had surgery. I had to leave my 2016 up on wheel jacks to come here in my 2012 Ram. I'll be finishing the with in my tranny when I get home.

@MattWalshBlog I'll decide what I care about, Matt.