CoffeeBear 🐻☕️

Day 39 of my Polymarket grind: Started with $210. Now sitting at $2,854 - 13.5× growth. 📍 War-map trades backed by public intel 📍 Earnings whispers with ~93% accuracy 📍 BTC up/down trading using live market data 📍 A few small YOLO informed 'bets' 📍 And now building a bot to arb spreads automatically Target: $10k portfolio by year-end. This has been one hell of a ride so far.

@DogPay_ What's your regulation / licensing allowing you to service and advertise to Indonesia?

🇮🇩 It seems Indonesia is a very strong market that has long been overlooked. Drop a number 1-100. Closest wins a free DogPay card. Follow @DogPay_ Like + RT Tag 1 friend Winner announced Monday. DM in 24h to claim.

@shipper_now Shipper

Today, we've ended vibe coding as a whole. I just watched my Mac build a complete business in 183 seconds. This is just absurd.

@hyperbeat @HyperliquidX I'm down to try. Does it come from a named IBAN?

Introducing the first $IDR (Indonesian Rupiah) offramp on @HyperliquidX Send $IDR to any Indonesian bank account 🇮🇩 Liquid banking.

@VECERTRadar Mm... doesn't seem like the dark web then without a .onion ;)

🚨 ALERT: New Forum on the Dark Web 🚨 Activity has been detected linked to a new leak site: LeakZone. 🔹 Domain: leakzone[.]org 🔹 Associated IP: 142.44.160[.]98 🔹 Status: Active / Monitoring Required The forum features a classic hacking community interface (like XenForo or MyBB), designed for fast navigation. Unlike purely .onion sites, its availability on the "Clear Web" suggests a strategy of mass user acquisition and SEO to quickly index leaks. #CyberSecurity #DarkWeb #LeakZone #CyberCrime #Infosec #FinancialResearch #OSINT

@0x0smilex @shodanhq Which Shodan package do you use?

👁️Smilex-Eye v20.0 IS LIVE! I just dropped my ultimate @shodanhq tool. Hunting made easy. Smilex-Eye is now available for the community. 🛠️ Advanced Mining 🎯 Honeypot Detection 💾 Clean Exporting,User-Freindly 📂 Repo: github.com/0x0smilex/smil… #BugBounty #bugbountytips #Trending

@xmayeth How to lose all your money rapidly.

Here’s the Tutorial of how to build your Arbitrage Bot for Polymarket $900 per day exact Formula. Feel free to bookmark while it’s public.

@gusik4ever @Polymarket

i honestly can’t remember the last day i started @Polymarket with zero profit yeah, i do take some Ls sometimes. like yesterday i accidentally bought the wrong position and lost a bit but overall i really like the trend i’m seeing i feel like i’m leveling up: > better instincts > better pattern recognition > and just more maturity in how i trade hopefully soon i’ll have some bigger insights (and wins) to share with you guys

@securezer0 @xmayeth Yep after running bots for 5 months with incredibly good latency to Polymarket's services, I've seen the pair price be ~99c a handful of times, not even hitting 98c. You've got waaaay too many institutions doing this.

@xmayeth Literally impossible. Nice larp

Just DM'd a dev who turned 7k into 324k in 28 days on Polymarket by building pure arb bot. Thought it was cap until he sent his logs. Then he said he deleted the repo 2 days ago because "API crackdown is coming soon & my code started gaining too much attention". What he told me in DM: "I got tired of losing to bots every day, so I built my own. Why let free money go to waste when retail keeps messing up prices? You debate yes/no, I wait for YES + NO < 0.98, buy both sides, and pocket the difference." Sat there like damn…we're stressing over charts and news getting rekt, while some script quietly prints off our mistakes. Feels kinda weird how easy it is. Quick rundown from what he said & code he showed me: > Scans BTC 15m Markets every 5–10s (py_clob_client) > Jumps in only when sum < 0.98 (happens a lot on vol) > Buys both sides, exits seconds later, no overnight > Telegram alerts on big ones, simple loop, no ML needed Logs he shared: $324k in 28 days ~4200 trades, 88% win rate Peak day: 18.7k (BTC spike early Jan) ~$74 avg per arb Polymarket isn't about smarts anymore. Stop being farmed by bots trading against you. Bookmark if you’re done getting rekt by scripts. Watch or get watched.

@leshka_eth Go on then, share the Polymarket link + have it link to your X?

I locked in for 30 days to make a HFT bot for Polymarket with Claude Code And it works In: $20k initial deposit 1 month later: +$195k My setup: • Trades BTC/ETH on 15-minute Up/Down markets • Almost 500 trades in a week, only 55% win rate • Compounds tiny positions nonstop How it works: • Exploits pricing gaps between Polymarket & big CEXs • Polymarket updates slower, so the bot buys mispriced YES/NO contracts before the market catches up It doesn’t predict direction - it detects market ineffinciencies and just buys misspricing I think that's THE way to make money right now: • Tiny edge × thousands of repeats = smooth, consistent profits curve • Same setup, same size, repeated constantly • Works the best with small bets (2-3 figs) This bot is running 24/7, doing what traders can’t: repeating a proven pattern at insane speed (Countless iterations on one specific market) It won't win forever, I'm aware it's mostly luck But I have few ideas on how to improve it I'll share this bot with 2-3 random followers to see how it performs with different setups Let me know in the comments if you're down to help me test it 👇

@marlowxbt Mmm, actually you see the price of shares on Polymarket move before the price updates on the UI. The UI is delayed and buggy - backend works fine. It's a hell of a lot more complex than this. Share us YOUR Polymarket account?

Insomnia made me rich. 2am. Found a $47K/day trading bot on GitHub. No password. Just sitting there. Downloaded it. Owner deleted it by morning. But I already had everything. The code was clean. Simple. Almost boring to read. One script watching BTC on Binance. Another script connected to Polymarket. That is it. → Account: @0x8dxd?via=marlowxbt" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@0x8dxd?via=ma… The trick lives in a 30 second gap. BTC moves on spot. Polymarket freezes. Old odds. Stale prices. Reality already shifted but the prediction market is still sleeping. Think of it like football. You sit in the stadium. See the goal. Your bookmaker watches a stream 30 seconds behind. For him it is still 0-0. You bet on what already happened. This bot does exactly that. Every 15 minutes. Sees the move on Binance. Enters Polymarket while odds are frozen. Waits. Window closes. Collects $1 for 30 cents. The wallet running this code: 0x8dxd. Profit chart goes straight up. $629K total. 98% green trades. A human cannot do this. We hesitate. We think. By the time you see the candle, the bot already cashed out. I integrated parts of this code into my scanner. Now it flags wallets exploiting the same lag. One sleepless night. One random GitHub scroll. One download. Sometimes the best alpha is not the strategy you build. It is the code someone forgot to hide.

@the_smart_ape @Polymarket Now what's the API? 👀

Just subscribed to a $450/month API to build a new tool on top of @Polymarket. You're going to love this one. Some bot owners are going to hate me hahaa.

@the_smart_ape @Polymarket How's it going with the new fees on 15 min markets?

My @Polymarket bot has reached 54 consecutive wins. 54 trades triggered, 54 wins, 0 losses. Each trade generates 1.5% of the traded amount. I coded the logic myself, so I know these 1.5% are guaranteed, but nothing beats testing it in real conditions. To truly confirm it, I need to go beyond 66 consecutive wins, which should happen in the coming days. But I won’t stop there, I plan to go to 200 consecutive wins to remove any doubt. For now, I’m only testing, so each trade is $10. After 200 trades, I’ll scale to $1,000 per trade, meaning $15 profit per trade. With an average of 20 trades triggered per day, that’s $300 per day. No, this isn’t a bot that will generate $1M per month. For now and for me $300 per day is enough, no need to be greedy, I try to scale step by step. While this runs, I’m working on another strategy that I’m not sure anyone has implemented yet. You’ll hear more about it soon!

@the_smart_ape @Polymarket Is the bot buying after the market time finishes?

My @Polymarket bot is still running on my Raspberry Pi. 2 days ago: 26 trades triggered, 26 wins, 0 losses Now: 42 trades triggered, 42 wins, 0 losses I could change the parameters to increase the number of triggered orders, but that would make it less conservative. At these settings, I believe the bot can never lose, and each trigger guarantees ~1.5%. I could aim for more, but that would mean taking more risk. I prefer a guaranteed 1.5% per trade rather than higher returns with any chance of loss. I’ll keep the bot running until it reaches 200 triggered orders before scaling it with much more capital. In the meantime, I’m building an analysis tool for Polymarket, not a trading bot this time, but an analytics tool that doesn’t exist yet and could be very useful. Will keep you posted!

@alo45682028 @the_smart_ape WSS sits around ~1.5ms on average.

@NeuralCoffeeDev @the_smart_ape 1.5ms? Really? I've tried several cloud server providers, including AWS; in Frankfurt, Ireland, Amsterdam, Belgium, and other Western European regions, the latency is generally between 40-60ms.

@alo45682028 @the_smart_ape Yep. :)

@arndxt_xo @the_smart_ape @Polymarket Unfortunately @the_smart_ape didn't take into account fills... Their backtesting assumes they get filled 100% of the time.

study @the_smart_ape‘s polymarket bot, backtested with +86% roi in just a few days most ‘arb bot’ threads are just PnL screenshots. this one is has undergone a through a research methodology tldr: @Polymarket arb is a parameter + execution game. this is a case study in microstructure + parameter design: - the same both show 2 vastly different results with diff parameters: conservative +86% (fees+spread), aggressive –50% in 2 days - the strategy is exploiting temporary orderbook dislocations early in each 15-min round, then engineering a hedge where UP + DOWN < 1 (after costs). - so he did the correct thing by building a first hand dataset (6GB of 1s best-ask snapshots) and replay deterministically - record more stress slippage/latency, model fill probability, and define kill-switches. - then optimize infra (colocation/VPS, Rust, dedicated RPC) only after the strategy is robust. the bot is the easy part. the hard part is building a repeatable calibration + risk framework.

@crypto_betty @Polymarket p.s. if you do successfully get an arb trade... you don't need to wait for the market to finish on @Polymarket, you can 'merge' your shares back for USDC instantly.

The issue is, all execution is non-atomic - you could get filled on one side of the order, but not the other... then that leaves you unhedged. It's massively more complicated than you're making it out to be. People should look at Rust too; Python is great for quick testing, but when you really want the best advantage for processing orderbooks, Rust = gg.

how to actually build a Polymarket arbitrage bot (the simple version) +$300/day PnL if you run it right everyone overcomplicates this. Polymarket arb is literally: buy YES + NO when they cost < $1.00, wait, get $1.00 back.polytrackhq​ the part that matters isn’t “strategy” - it’s execution + not getting rugged by bad code.pypi​ where the +$300/day comes from it’s not one big bet. it’s small edges repeated across liquid markets, all day, every day.polytrackhq​ if you’re consistently locking ~1–3% per cycle and actually getting fills, +$300/day is just throughput + discipline, not “genius alpha”.polytrackhq​ first, the edge (why this isn’t a meme) polytrack’s writeup cites research showing ~$40M extracted via arbitrage and 86M bets analyzed - meaning this is a real, repeatable edge, not a one-off lucky trade.polytrackhq​ so the goal is simple: find mispricings fast, size small at first, automate the boring part.polytrackhq​ what you actually need (minimal) Python + official trading client py-clob-client (this is the standard base layer).pypi​ A VPS so the script runs 24/7 (don’t run this from a laptop). A small bankroll to test (start small, then scale after you confirm fills + slippage). where people mess up: they copy random GitHub bots and get burned, so start from official libs/docs first.pypi​ the bot loop (in plain English) Pull live prices / order book for a market.pypi​ Compute: price(YES)+price(NO)price(YES) + price(NO)price(YES)+price(NO).polytrackhq​ If the sum is < 1.00 by enough margin (to cover mistakes/slippage), send both orders.polytrackhq​ Log everything: timestamp, market, prices, expected edge, filled/not filled. Repeat forever. that’s it. no “AI alpha”, no predictions, no news scraping.polytrackhq​ where to get real references (not vibes) The simplest “how-to” style arbitrage guide with concrete logic: PolyTrackHQ’s arbitrage bot guide.polytrackhq​ Official building blocks / client: py-clob-client on PyPI (use this instead of sketchy wrappers).pypi​ If you want a ready-made automation framework directionally (not necessarily arb-only): Polymarket’s own Agents repo.github​ Reddit angle: people discussing arb tooling and calculators (useful for thinking about execution + “non-atomic” risk): r/arbitragebetting thread about Kalshi x Polymarket arb calculator.reddit​ two real-world gotchas (that decide profit vs loss) Non-atomic execution: you can get one side filled and the other not, especially in thin books (this is why people talk about “execution risk” in arb threads).reddit​ Threshold selection: “sum < 0.99” is a meme number - in practice you want margin for slippage and failed fills, otherwise you’ll churn.polytrackhq​ how to make it feel “pro” fast Run it only on high-volume markets at first (fills matter more than theoretical edge).polytrackhq​ Start with tiny sizing until logs show stable behavior (then scale).polytrackhq​ Treat every GitHub bot as malicious until proven otherwise; build on official libs.pypi

@securezer0 Does this take Kalshi's fees into account?

The reason most polymarket arbitrage bots don't make money is that they don't calculate how much you can actually buy I've had at least a dozen people approach me in the last few days reporting that they subscribed to a trading bot only to instantly lose money! Polymarket uses orderbooks, that means there a finite amount of shares available at each price level If you buy a lot, or if there isn't much for sale, you will quickly end up moving the price And if you move the price too much when arbitraging you will be buying at over $1, which is the onchain equivalent of setting your money on fire. You also have to consider both the orderbooks- the orderbook on Polymarket and the orderbook on Kalshi or Opinion. You’re moving both at the same time. The algorithm required to figure all of this out is very complex, and that's simply the reason why most arbitrage bots don't have it, but without it you can't profitably arbitrage. I had to consult with a math professor in order to help me write the code You can see these calculations at play on AlertPilots arb finder when you calculating the profit on your investment