@TheMichaelEvery Disputed does a lot of the heavy lifting here lol. As I recall you said this war was all about containing China – not about giving them nuclear material and a stronger hold over the biggest player in the M-E.
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Coniglio
90 posts
This is huge *if true* and would be the ‘disputed’ US win I expected in my previous geopolitical base case - if Trump accepts China’s role, as I also expecte(d).
However, lots of fake news in this crisis so far, and Iran’s hardliners could still try to shoot it down if true.
Al Arabiya English@AlArabiya_Eng
🔴 Iran wants to transfer enriched uranium to China with pledge not to hand it to US, Al Arabiya sources say 🔴 Many points pertaining to Iran’s nuclear program have been resolved, the sources say 🔴 Iran has agreed to international monitoring of nuclear facilities to prevent decommissioning them, according to the sources
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@JustinWolfers “Additional adjustments” is an easing bias as its latest moves were cuts
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It's funny that Hammack, Kashkari and Logan voted against the inclusion of an easing bias in the statement, given that a plain English reading of the statement shows no such bias.
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Surprising exactly nobody, the Fed kept rates on hold.
More interesting: This is the most divided I've seen a committee vote. They're not divided over the decision (except Miran, but who cares), but over the language, and whether to signal the next step is lower rates.
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@chriswithans @E_M_Richmond If there is one sport that doesn’t take the Olympics serious it’s football. ⚽️
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@E_M_Richmond I’m fair on this. Like I’m not a huge soccer fan but that one medal should count much more than a single swimming event. It should be worth 100 swimming medals.
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This is of course insane because the U.S. will have won gold in the most prestigious event, women's figure skating, and gold in the team skating event; plus gold in women's hockey and either silver or gold in men's hockey.
But Norway wins 25-odd medals in Long Walks with Skis and they get the top spot.
Like hey, I won the Secretary-Treasurer position for all the clubs I created in high school. I am therefore a better politician than Clinton, Bush, Obama, and Trump combined!
Political Election Projections@tencor_7144
Today's Winter Olympics saw Norway beat their best-ever performance at a games, while the United States seemed to have secured 2nd over Italy. The Netherlands secured 2 golds today to be within 1 gold of overtaking Italy, but they lack medal favorites in the remaining contests.
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Calling the job market as "frozen" sounds pejorative. One data point supporting this: the hiring rate is what it was in the Great Recession.
But separation rates also near the lowest on record, as are layoff/discharge rates. Should we call the job market secure?
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Official data is in today, and America set a new record-high for solar power in June, with generation up 25% compared to last year!
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@thijszonneveld Als Lipowitz zijn regenjasje overboord had gegooid had ie het gehaald.
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@AdamSinger @kareem_carr On productivity and growth and other macro stuff he wasn’t wrong… sectoral impact and non-market economy impact was huge though.
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wild to me how much of a nothing burger AI has been so far. it’s been 2.5 years and the most tangible effects of AI are students cheating more and slightly more realistic facebook slop.
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@mousa4346 @besttrousers Demand adjusts lower too, so unemployment
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@besttrousers Idk economics like that. What would happen in that scenario?
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A supply shock without a corresponding increase in prices?
Axios@axios
NEW: Lutnick says 10% tariffs here to stay, but insists consumers won't pay for it axios.com/2025/05/11/tru…
Somerville, MA 🇺🇸 English
The Governing Council met in Porto for our annual retreat.
Thank you Governor Mário Centeno and the colleagues at Banco de Portugal for your impeccable organisation – sinto-me muito grata!
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@RaoulRuparel What a complicated way of showing EURGBP is basically flat
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A further (probably unpopular) addition to this. From a currency perspective GBP and EUR has both fallen by the same amount against the USD over past 3 months. Still reasons to be concerned, but again this isn't only a UK sell off...combo of global & UK factors at play
Raoul Ruparel@RaoulRuparel
Short thread on UK bond market. First thing to say is that the rise in 30yr yield isn't unique to the UK. But the UK has seen the largest rise & it has also seen both short & long term yields rising (though long more than short). All this matters for 3 reasons...(1/2)
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@rik_rutten Kort antwoord: 1) de VS financiert dit tekort met eigen geld (dollars), Frankrijk financiert dit tekort met 'vreemd' geld (gemeenschappelijke euro's), 2) de potentiële BBP-groei ligt hoger in de VS waardoor de schuldquote eerder 'houdbaar' is en 3) USD is reservemunt, EUR niet.
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Oprechte vraag aan de economen hier: waarom draait elke analyse van de Franse economische malaise om het begrotingstekort (6,1%) en de staatsschuld (112% van bbp), terwijl de Amerikaanse economie een hoger begrotingstekort én een hogere staatsschuld heeft?
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@MickPersson Onlogische argumentatie, hij bewijst zichzelf een goede dienst. Wat heeft hij aan zijn legacy als zijn enige overgebleven zoon voor wellicht de rest van Joe’s leven in de gevangenis zou zitten?
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Ons commentaar: over de gratie voor Hunter Biden
volkskrant.nl/columns-opinie…
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@JustinWolfers @chrislhayes Good luck to Betsy trying to sell her services in China.
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Interestingly @chrislhayes asked two INDEPENDENT experts, and BOTH agreed that there were significant problems with Trump's tariff threats.
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@ernietedeschi My suspicion is they will react: by not cutting rates any further.
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The final effect of a tariff hike on the price level will depend on lots of factors: dollar appreciation, consumer substitution, supply chain shifts, and, above all, the Federal Reserve's reaction (my strong suspicion is the Fed would not react to a one-time price level shift).
Ernie Tedeschi@ernietedeschi
A broad 25% tariff on all goods imports from Canada and Mexico would, before substitution & other 2nd stage effects, put upward pressure on the level of consumer prices of +0.6%. That's the equivalent of an average loss in after-tax income of about $980 per household in 2023$.
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@Sywert @bgroothuis Zo werken valuta niet maat. Als de roebel in waarde daalt tegenover de dollar maar de yuan niet, dan daalt de roebel dus ook met exact hetzelfde percentage tegenover de yuan.
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@bgroothuis It is questionable whether the ruble-dollar exchange rate is still the key indicator of the Russian economy's state, as both we and they have reduced Russian dependency on the dollar in favor of the Chinese yuan
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Russia’s economy is in big trouble. Inflation 9%, interest rates over 20% (coming close to 30%), reserves will run out in a year and the Ruble is falling fast.
Time to hit hard.
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@ChrisGiles_ Well you guys know how to export it to my country ;) independent.co.uk/climate-change…
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Shocking misinformation here from @DanNeidle
He claims in this video that farms are 5% of the UK economy. It’s 0.74%…
… and that includes fishing and forestry
ons.gov.uk/economy/grossd…
Get it right, Dan
(Obviously, everything he said about tax was spot on)
The Rest Is Money@therestismoney
How many farmers will actually be affected by the changes to inheritance tax? @DanNeidle does the math...
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@ChrisGiles_ Sewage is just 0.2% of GDP. But that doesn’t make it irrelevant.
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The truth is that farming is a bit of an irrelevance for the UK economy
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@eelcobvr @mattgaetz Deze nominatie wel een lakmoesproef van Trump te zijn om de loyaliteit in de Senaat te peilen.
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Een van de, zo niet dé grootste fan van Trump in het Congres, @mattgaetz, roept al jaren dat Trumps politieke vijanden vervolgd moeten worden, en wordt nu voorgedragen voor de op papier meest onafhankelijke baan in DC: Justitieminister. Toch benieuwd of Senaat dat goedkeurt
Sam Stein@samstein
Matt Gaetz has been nominated as Attorney General
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