ComebackCap
12.5K posts
ComebackCap
@ComebackCap
i tweet about arsenal + markets. corporate sweatshop button clicker
Katılım Şubat 2022
751 Takip Edilen2.7K Takipçiler
My math has Micron $MU at about 5.5x forward earnings here, down from 9.6x into the print:
Consensus Media@ConsensusGurus
Earnings Edge for Wednesday: Setups for Micron, Jabil, Williams-Sonoma, General Mills, DiDi Global, Five Below, SailPoint, DLocal, Weibo, and Many More $MU $JBL $WSM $GIS $DIDI $FIVE $DLO $WB $SAIL earnings-edge.com/p/earnings-edg…
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@compoundpapi @_Afcbanks He’s amazing man. After yesterday $100m floor on his mkt value. Dribbles like a small Argentinian we all know…
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@LeylaKuni Not sure how this will turn out, but @boazweinstein is doing God’s work holding others accountable for egregious capital allocation and fiduciary duty.
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This one is an interesting case study on what the price of liquidity is.
For background: OBDC II attempted a merger with OBDC late last year. Long story, but investors in OBDC II would have taken a 20% haircut (the merger was cancelled)
The fund manager is now guiding to fund liquidation (but keep in mind, the verbiage in SEC filings is pretty open)
The fund sold $600M in loans (the crown jewels of the portfolio), and is making a distribution of about 30% to all investors.
Enter Saba/Cox with their tender offer (~33% discount to NAV) for ~7% of outstanding shares.
According to Blue Owl: "Cox and Saba's offer price is inadequate, arbitrary and substantially undervalues OBDC II's assets and ongoing access to liquidity."
LOL
Three things here:
1. the remaining portfolio is not all unicorns and roses
2. the offer is voluntary - meaning, investors who want to stay in the fund don't have to sell at this price
3. I bet the 20% discount to NAV via merger with OBDC (which, again, didn't happen) is looking fairly attractive in retrospect..
I did the math to estimate the value of the remaining assets (and see what investors stand to gain - or lose - by staying in the fund vs. tendering the offers)
You can read it here:
open.substack.com/pub/accredited…
Bloomberg@business
A Blue Owl fund is urging investors to reject a share purchase offer led by Boaz Weinstein’s Saba, saying the offer price is too low bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Molly asked me the most underrated company we're invested in. I think Flock Safety is the most underappreciated company in America.
Their founder Garrett Langley should be a national hero.
Flock helps solve over 2800 cases every day, ~15% of reported crime in the US.
Just your friendly reminder that tech companies are saving the world.
Molly O’Shea@MollySOShea
BREAKING: Inside a16z's $22B AUM Growth Fund Waymo, Kalshi, Coinbase, Robinhood, Stripe, Revolut, ElevenLabs, Flock Safety, Harvey, EliseAI, Hebbia, Roblox, Anduril, Sardine With a fresh $6.75B Growth fund, General Partner Alex Immerman (@aleximm) shares how @a16z evaluates category leaders & why firms are rethinking old metrics in the AI era. “If you look at OpenAI & Anthropic alone, those two companies added as much revenue last year as 1/2 of the public cloud universe excluding the Mag Seven.” Even as AI added ~$6T in market value to the stock market in 2025, we discuss the private companies driving the next wave of growth. Topics include: • Marc Andreessen lore • Why the fastest-growing tech companies are still private • Waymo’s expansion & the future of autonomous vehicles • ElevenLabs & the breakout of voice AI platforms • Kalshi & the rise of prediction markets • The four largest tech companies adding 1% to U.S. GDP growth with $400B in spending in 2025 • How a16z grew from a startup VC to capturing 18% of all U.S. venture capital • Why engagement, retention, & product defensibility matter more than ever Full conversation ↓ 𝐓𝐈𝐌𝐄𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐌𝐏𝐒 (00:00) Alex Immerman, GP a16z (00:53) Flock Safety: Most underrated company in America (03:43) Private vs public market growth gap (04:43) Do gross margins matter in AI companies? (06:33) Waymo’s growth & $16B funding round (08:13) The future of ride sharing & autonomous vehicles (10:01) Where the value in self driving tech will accrue (12:27) Tesla FSD vs Waymo’s full stack approach (13:50) The growing brand power of Waymo (15:43) What comes after autonomous cars? (17:41) Are people really worried about AI taking over? (18:55) Inside ElevenLabs’ $500M funding round (22:12) The real world use cases of voice AI agents (22:55) How a16z invested in Kalshi (24:11) Why Kalshi over Polymarket? (26:35) Prediction markets vs g*mbling (29:33) Is fintech making a comeback? (32:44) Why stablecoins are becoming important (33:30) Lessons from Coinbase founder Brian Armstrong (34:19) How a16z evaluates growth companies (36:52) Where startups spend money: R&D vs marketing (38:44) Why startups need a strong Act 2 (40:08) Why venture outcomes are getting bigger & bigger (42:24) Why backing the market leader matters (43:49) The best books for founders (44:59) How a16z built its media machine (47:03) Who will be the first Trillionaire?
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@gordocap18 @capital_frozen Some accounts on here that ppl think are smart think Uber is toast
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@shravanrayhaan Oh apologies I thought you were referring to the equity base rate forecasting
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@ComebackCap Sir
Kazakhstan s central banks has set the base rate as 18%
1 year t bills yield 16%
Inflation is around 11 to 12%
No wonder $kspi is at such a low multiple despite the 9.7% dividend yield at current prices and exchange rates.
(I'm long)
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Whats wrong with Kaspi $kspi. It’s under 10x eps growing >20%. Margins are good. Only red flag is the thing is basically Russian.
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@dieworkwear Don’t be so simple, lots of factors - not in isolation but you fail to understand the petrodollar which is fine.
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@Lacazest Scored against Brighton. Was alright against Chelsea. Was decent against Tottenham (Everyone was tbf), and scored against Wolves. Are we talking about the same player? I know he’s not untouchable, but usually a bad spell of 3/4 games warrants a player being dropped, not 1?
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Love Saka, but Noni’s performance definitely warrant him starting for us this weekend against Everton.
Big fan of the unpredictability and chaos he brings to our right wing… 🔥
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@LumberTrading Andriods could teleport you and Apple will still win 😅
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@ChrisPavese Software produces higher returns if decently selective, but dept stores also probably OP the index from here
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@ComebackCap Yet their teams are sitting in low blocks with 10 people in the box. Should be angry at their own team.
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It’s so funny people are mad at Arsenal’s tactics but the GD is +37
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