MNSportsNation
108 posts
@JerryCap It’s so brutal. Can’t believe he hasn’t tried anything with CoStar at all. American Tower was truly his really great pick but that era is over. I’m choosing to believe he has no involvement at all at this point.
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@atelicinvest Some of the software they sell is laughably outdated and the only piece of technology the Gen X owner has ever learned. When they retire and if they hand off these businesses to someone younger like their kids (who are probably in college doing something else) churn will rise
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Does anyone actually have updated, group wide churn number for CSU please
It's not near zero.
Dalius - Special Sits@InvestSpecial
Giverny Capital thinks $CSU.TO is way too cheap - Critical, data-rich SaaS that's near impossible to rip out - Switching=data nightmare, so churn is near zero - FCF compounding 18%/yr while the stock barely moves - At 8% fwd FCF yield, mkt pricing in disruption that won't come
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@evrgn11112231 Yep. Off balance sheet commitments coming back to bite
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Still true, literally free money IMO and hilarious that anyone would own literally any stock over having every available free $ in $META.
Evergreen@evrgn11112231
$META right now is probably one of the best examples I've seen in recent memory of Buffett's "dollar bill on the sidewalk in front of you". People will contort themselves to no end to not buy something with a bad chart IMO. Same group will buy this at $1000. In the meantime, thanks for the $.
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@AustinsStocks @stock_vals @marc_slans Disruption takes a while to appear but when it does it strikes
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@stock_vals @marc_slans Why use search when you can ask an LLM anything. Gotta think on-device LLM’s will take lots of share when bots get more personalized
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@Larryjamieson_ Makes sense. Tri-merge in the bureaus exist and bonds are rated both by Moodys and S and P most of the time. Maybe a dual-score environment forms where vantage gets some relevance but doesn’t seem like a competitive one or the other environment makes sense for the industry
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@svocktigon 94' adoption by then private GSEs
08' reforms
2018 credit reporting reforms
Does not exist because of predictiveness, exists because there are multiple parties to a conforming loan and they need a common standard
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TLDR:
>sees 40% vantage market share by 29-30
>thinks Fico classic and VS4.0 are virtually interchangeable
>ALSO assumes that VS will be more favourable to worse credits(?)
>thinks there won’t be much of a spread in the sec market
>also assumes that VS4.0 has been released(?)
Buyback Capital@Larryjamieson_
Here we go
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@Larryjamieson_ Why did it become a monopoly in the first place? Maybe this is a rare industry where there’s only room for one player
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>no talk of the non conforming market
>no talk of auto, ploan, or credit card
>concedes complexity of mtg leads to pxing power
>stock apparently has no bottom because easing prices is BAD
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@DurableCreators That’s what happens when the TAM gets too big, competition gets incentivized to move it. Why most compounders eventually flatten out without the extreme entry barriers
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What happened to Zoetis? Down 40% YTD and now trading at 12x forward earnings. I get growth has slowed but this seems like pretty extreme reaction. Feels like one of those cases where the stock was way too expensive but now the market overcorrects to the downside. $ZTS
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@evrgn11112231 Absolutely. Eaton, caterpillar, and engineering firms look cheap because of the data center buildout boosting returns but once the data centers are built they will lose lots of revenue. P/E doesn’t tell the story
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@joecarlsonshow What exactly was he wrong about? He still holds alphabet and correctly surmised they had a data advantage that would benefit them. He just said that the future is more uncertain, competition is increasing, and there is chance of search fragmenting. It’s still too early to tell
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The people reading this as a diss on Chris Hohn are entirely missing the point.
Hohn is an amazing investor. He sold Google and bought GE, and Ge did about as well as Google anyway. Hohn is literally one of the best investors alive.
But the point is that he was wrong about Google, very wrong, and he sold for the wrong reasons. And this shows *he could be wrong about Microsoft too.*
Hopefully this clarifies things.
Joseph Carlson@joecarlsonshow
Chris Hohn sold most of his Microsoft position out of concern for AI disruption. Also, Chris Hohn sold most of his Google position in 2023, at around $100 per share, due to concerns for AI disruption. Also, Chris Hohn wrote a letter to Sundar criticizing Google over their employee compensation, and saying they should shut down Waymo and return that capital to investors through buybacks. This was before Waymo was a massive success and has created hundreds of billions in value in Alphabets portfolio. Chris Hohn is for sure a smart guy, and even a good investor, but he's not always right. Think for yourself, make decisions for yourself.
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@artilexy @joecarlsonshow Exactly. The fact that he still holds Microsoft and Google shows he’s not bearish on them, just his conviction is lower and he’s adjusting his portfolio size to reflect that
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@joecarlsonshow Hindsight is easy. Just because Google worked out later doesn’t mean Hohn’s sale was wrong with what we knew at the time. Microsoft has real uncertainty. AI is reshaping how businesses use productivity tools.
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Chris Hohn sold most of his Microsoft position out of concern for AI disruption.
Also, Chris Hohn sold most of his Google position in 2023, at around $100 per share, due to concerns for AI disruption.
Also, Chris Hohn wrote a letter to Sundar criticizing Google over their employee compensation, and saying they should shut down Waymo and return that capital to investors through buybacks. This was before Waymo was a massive success and has created hundreds of billions in value in Alphabets portfolio.
Chris Hohn is for sure a smart guy, and even a good investor, but he's not always right.
Think for yourself, make decisions for yourself.
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@stefrich45040 @joecarlsonshow Losing your money is the biggest risk
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@joecarlsonshow The takeaway from Chris Hohn: Strict cost control works in a flat market, but in an age of exponential growth, playing it too safe is the biggest risk of all.
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@joecarlsonshow Do not bet against Chris Hohn. Sold charter at the top while others took years to get out
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@long_equity Screeners are too backward looking, would have missed GE and others
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RELX might just be one of the highest quality companies in the UK.
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@itsintheprice @evrgn11112231 @Beutty @PrefShares @rev_cap @viggy_krishnan Did you see his safran presentation? He has the exact number of engines in service and when they will need to come in for service modeled out. If he’s still holding he sees 15% + returns
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@evrgn11112231 @Beutty @PrefShares @rev_cap @viggy_krishnan The risk/reward just doesn't look good when you consider those things + the high multiples (especially ge). Obviously rn they are going down for entirely other reason
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@P_Remarks Not shocked. Celsius has way too much caffeine per can to attract regular usage. Need to find a different way to differentiate
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