@AlPawlowski Get used to it, NIL has made it even more unbalanced. You get an occasional upset, but Mid-majors last year went 6-15 SU in the NCAA tourney against the power 4 according to Grok.
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Bob E
5.3K posts
Bob E
@ComptrBob
Sports bettor and analyst. Math skills galore. Skier and golfer.
Katılım Haziran 2013
184 Takip Edilen569 Takipçiler
Anyone else want to try and make the argument a 30-win team doesn’t belong in the NCAA Tournament because of a rating system that is built to favor the P4 conferences?
The fact Miami was forced to play in a play-in game was a joke.
The bias against the mid-majors is absurd.
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@FezzikSports Certainly good compared to the joke MLs at Circa:
Duke -30000 ......... Michigan -37500
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Yes, I bet DUKE -9500 .........
Yes, I bet Mich -9900......
NO, I did not release them (not widely available)
Great bets
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Let’s get this out of the way now.
Miami (OH) belonged in the NCAA Tournament even if it…
Loses by 1
Loses by 10
Loses by 20+
The result of this game as well as every other game has zero effect on whether or not a team should have been included.
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@DarrigoMelanie Ridiculous. Without an actual citizenship check, it's just made-up garbage to try to grab a headline. Heritage Foundation spews total crap.
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Only 10 undocumented immigrants have successfully cast ballots over the last 25 years.
There are more Trump allies in the Epstein files than there are undocumented immigrants voting.
The SAVE America Act is a voter suppression bill that protects Trump and his Epstein allies.
Ted Cruz@tedcruz
Democrats are trying to stop the SAVE America Act because they want illegal aliens to vote for them. That’s bad for America. We need to pass the SAVE America Act.
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@RioTazewell So, since they are so good, let them review voter's citizenship in real time.
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Utah reviewed 2 MILLION voter registrations.
Found 1 non-citizen registered. Zero non-citizen votes cast.
The "problem" the SAVE Act is solving doesn't exist.
The voters it would block absolutely do. #SAVEActIsPayToVote
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@WalshFreedom I paid with my FICA taxes for Social Security and Medicare. OTOH, Medicaid is welfare, eliminate it.
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Utter bullshit. A race-baiting, fear-mongering, xenophobic lie. The primary driver of our debt is Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid - paying for retirement & health care for the American people who are living longer & longer is the primary cause of our debt. There’s not even a close second. But team Trump would rather lie and blame brown & black immigrants.
Aaron Rupar@atrupar
Stephen Miller: "If all of this theft were stopped, it would be enough to balance the budget. The extraction of wealth from American taxpayers to people who don't belong here is the primary cause of the national debt."
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@alexj_421 @Aaron_Bracy @ESPNLunardi I would say his pick of Idaho as a 16 seed play-in versus what was a strong 15 seed is his most glaring misstep. The Utah State pick at a 7 should have been at most a n 8.
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Here’s how Joe Lunardi did with his final bracket compared to the actual bracket:
FIELD: 68/68
AT-LARGE: 37/37
SEED (exact): 57/68 *
SEED (+/- 1):
67/68 *
* personal best(s)
I know Joe is good at this, but that is just wild. 👏 @ESPNLunardi
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@NickViaNyte Moraga, CA (St. Mary's) is about 65 miles from Davis, CA. Not an overwhelming difference.
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@trentriker @GoodZibes Since 1989, only one team worse than a 4 seed has won the tourney. It's always been about crowning the top seeds.
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@GoodZibes Yes. Tournament needs expanding, unless you like watching the Power 4 invitational every year. Before conference realignment I’d say never expand. And…even if you do get in, your going to the first four as an 11 seed, or a 9 seed if you have 25 plus wins and great metrics.
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I better not see any Aztec fans ask for tournament expansion. I don’t think any of you would suggest that tho lol
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@BattleCattleFan NIL $$$ will be very important. Will be interesting to see.
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Here’s some Data, for those looking for an objective answer.
It’s Average NET Finish per team (since 2018/19)
New PAC12: 90
PAC5 leaving MWC: 78.
MWC, if no change : 127.
MWC6 Left behind: 168.
This is all before the PAC schools all will get a bump by playing Gonzaga and other tougher competition nearly every game
The New PAC12 is nothing like the old MW. The difference between the two leagues about the same as the Ivy League and the A10.
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@BattleCattleFan Holy crap, if you can't beat an 8 seed, there's no hope for you.
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Under seed Utah State. Put them
Essentially ALWAYS in the 8/9
Game.
Then say “oh they’ve never made a run in the tournament”
Screw it all.
Jeff Watts@jcwatts21
I love the annual tradition of under seeding Mountain West teams. This things rigged for the big conferences.
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@SenatorDurbin So Dems lunatics can target them and their families? STFU Dickie.
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Democrats have asked immigration agents to take their masks off and abide by the rules outlined in our Constitution. But Republicans shut down the Department of Homeland Security to block these common sense measures.
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A big part of not wanting the 8/9 seeds comes from the difficulty of making it past the second round since you have to face a 1 seed 99.9% of the time. Based on historical win percentages, the odds of making it to the Sweet 16 and beyond are actually higher for 10, 11 and 12 seeds than for 8 and 9 seeds.
In the 64+ team era of the NCAA, 8/9 seeds are 22-136 against 1 seeds. Since 2010, there have been 10 upsets by an 8/9 over a 1 seed, which is an average of 0.7 per tournament.
We've also not had an 8/9 upset of a 1 seed in either of the last two tournaments, so you might say we're due.
Jason Walker@jwalker_sports
Video from the Utah State press conference after the announcement that they'll be a 9 seed taking on 8 seed Villanova. Quotable from Jerrod Calhoun, said his team getting a 9 seed was "absolutely atrocious"
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@ComptrBob No, but there is noticable difference between 10.0%, 5.0% and 15.0%, 16.9% and 13.8%, which is a more accurate reflection of the odds of making it as an 8 or 9 seed and how often the 10, 11, and 12 seeds make it.
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@PattyMurray Yeah, defund ICE and border patrol. Nice try, Patty, but no good.
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REMINDER: Democrats tried SIX TIMES to fund the parts of DHS that Congress agrees on—like paying TSA workers, FEMA, and cyber defense.
Republicans blocked us every single time.
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@703Aggie @MarchMadnessMBB Miami is a virtual pick'em (KP 0.08) behind USU. The three other 7 seeds were rated better. Obviously USU should have been an 8 seed, that's why they are 2 pt favorites over Villanova. NET ratings are useless, that's why even the committee doesn't use them.
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In the west region:
9 seed Utah State (26 NET, 30 KenPom, won regular season outright conference title and tournament)
8 seed Villanova (35 NET, 33 KenPom, no conference rings)
7 seed Miami (32 NET, 31 KenPom, no conference rings)
@MarchMadnessMBB make it make sense.
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@Joshua_Newman The greater Las Vegas TV market is reasonably big, about #40 in USA size. Visitors will add a lot of attendance. Obviously, football and hockey are doing very well. MLB and NBA will be problematic since they come late.
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We’ve all been to Vegas, right?
I’m not the sharpest marble in the box, but I don’t understand how that city can support all four major sports.
Shams Charania@ShamsCharania
Just in: The NBA will hold a vote at the Board of Governors meetings March 24-25 to explore adding expansion teams exclusively in Las Vegas and Seattle, with the two franchises targeted for the 2028-29 season, sources tell ESPN. There is momentum for stakeholders to approve surveying what industry executives project will be bids in the $7-to-$10 billion range for each team.
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@ftmchronicles24 More likely Wes varies the fractional bet to win about 10u. Thus the 35/1 shot paid ~11.7u. Taking an average of a 20/1 shot at 0.5u bet. 62 losses => ~-31u, so a net -19.3u, loss for a $100 unit betsize ~ -$1,930.
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@jwalker_sports The problem is that the 10, 11 and 12 seeds don't play each other so both can advance, but only the 8 or 9 advances. Not much difference between 17%, 15%, 17% and 14%.
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If you present the numbers like that it doesn't feel like a big difference, but combining the 8/9 into one group and then comparing that total to what the 10, 11 and 12 seeds have done individually isn't the right way to do it. A more fair way to present it would be that 8/9 seeds have made the Sweet 16 a total of 24 times while 10/11 seeds have done it 51 times, which is definately a big difference.
The 8 seed has odds, based on historical win percentages, of 10.0% at the Sweet 16, the 9 seed just 5.0%. Combined, they're around 7.5%. The 10 seed is at 15.0%, 11 at 16.9% and 13.8%.
It's not an absurdly massive difference, but it's substantial enough that fan, and even team/coach, aversion to the 8/9 games is justified.
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@BryantMV2002 Utah State would have been an underdog or Pk to all the actual 7 seeds. Obviously should have been a 8 seed.
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Utah State should have been a 7. The fact they got the 9. Awful. They will beat Villanova and then give Arizona a run for their money.
Jason Walker@jwalker_sports
Video from the Utah State press conference after the announcement that they'll be a 9 seed taking on 8 seed Villanova. Quotable from Jerrod Calhoun, said his team getting a 9 seed was "absolutely atrocious"
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