Condensed Insight

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Condensed Insight

Condensed Insight

@CondensedI

Adventuring and Life Weekly to bi-weekly posts https://t.co/AUZ54FQOWy

Katılım Mart 2016
688 Takip Edilen254 Takipçiler
Condensed Insight
Condensed Insight@CondensedI·
@lazereater @Randall7575 Thank you so much. It’s very interesting. By the way on the unrelated note is this $celh much less profitable than monster? The business is still growing, which requires lots of capital investment.
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Randall Henri Steinmeyer,
Randall Henri Steinmeyer,@Randall7575·
$TPB story: “Growth is balanced. Profits improving.” Actual math: Revenue ↑ 29% Modern Oral ↑ 266% EBITDA ↓ 10–20% Then they guided it lower Stock −20% You weren’t early. You were misled.
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Invert Man
Invert Man@lazereater·
@Randall7575 @CondensedI You cannot sell into major C store chains without paying slotting fees to have access to the back bar. Zyn pays them, Velo pays them and now $TPB is paying them for ALP and FRE as they break into the large retailers. If you understood the market you would know that.
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Invert Man
Invert Man@lazereater·
@Randall7575 This is nonsense. "then they guided it lower" ... what is "it"? Also, how were shareholders mislead? $TPB's nictone pouch sales continue to grow faster quarter over quarter than most business grow year over year. Maybe I am thick, but opertationally they apear to be crushing it.
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Condensed Insight
Condensed Insight@CondensedI·
@nachkari That was also the thesis of $oxy. Long-term trend, new technology occurring for a hydrocarbon extraction and changes the economics. We also find more ways to use it and we also learn to use it more efficiently as price increase. It’s long gamma.
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Condensed Insight
Condensed Insight@CondensedI·
@nachkari I’m starting to understand more of it. I think the current state of the market people tend to over extrapolate technology over resources. Due to super super cycle nature and lack of understanding of the technology involved.
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Cody
Cody@codytrades·
So $5.15 is the TBV ex-YPF. Still not bad in the $4s but margin of safety is nowhere near what I thought.
Cody tweet media
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Cody
Cody@codytrades·
$BUR: Fintwit darling with uncorrelated returns. Except the returns are -70%.
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HFI Research
HFI Research@HFI_Research·
At ~130 vessels a day, that’s $94.9 billion a year.
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sportsguy 🐍
sportsguy 🐍@Mktsurfer·
@The_Analyst if refinery capacity is reduced, crude demand is reduced until it balances with max refinery capacity. Demand for products outstrips production supply, so product prices rise.
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Icecube-Born 1776
Icecube-Born 1776@icecube2000000·
$FF Grandma: “why did your girlfriend leave you” Me: “I didn’t factor in a 40% increase in Methanol costs into my Bio Diesel penny stock”
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Condensed Insight
Condensed Insight@CondensedI·
@YoloCapMgt He seems to be a b******* artist taking things from other people and mixing it with his own thoughts. This implies that are society has become so under educated that It can't notice to nuance anymore.
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Icecube-Born 1776
Icecube-Born 1776@icecube2000000·
Companies like LG Chem and Sinopec are major global suppliers of methacrylate. They are shut down. $FF makes methacrylate. Should be a tailwind for them, despite higher methanol costs to them.
zerohedge@zerohedge

While everyone is focusing on the supply side of energy, here is what nobody is discussing (yet): demand is falling off a cliff, as either prices are too high, or there simply aren't any physical inputs. First in Asia: With over half of Japan's naphtha imported, petrochemical producers are trimming output: - Mitsubishi Chemical and Mitsui Chemicals have reduced ethylene runs -Sumitomo Chemical may delay restarting Keiyo Ethylene and expects reduced rates even after restart. South Korea is also seeing pressure build across the sector. - YNCC, one of the region’s largest ethylene producers, has declared force majeure and is running its cracker at significantly reduced rates. - Both Lotte Chemical and LG Chem have warned customers that they may follow, and the government has temporarily designated naphtha an “economic security item” to manage dwindling stocks. In China, Sinopec has cut March refinery runs by about 10% to conserve crude stocks. - A Shell–CNOOC joint venture has shut its Huizhou ethylene cracker and told customers that polyethylene shipments are suspended indefinitely effective March 5 - Wanhua Chemical has declared force majeure for Middle Eastern customers amid severe LPG feedstock disruptions. In Indonesia, Chandra Asri is operating at reduced rates and has declared force majeure following a sudden halt in feedstock arrivals. In Taiwan, Formosa Plastics Group’s Taiwan Petrochemical declared force majeure on March 10 and indicated that, if shortages worsen, volumes will be allocated based on actual availability. India suspended shipments of LPG to commercial operators to prioritize supplies for households, leading to worries from hotels and restaurants that they may be forced to close.

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Vancouver Island Guy 🌊
Vancouver Island Guy 🌊@VanIsleInvestor·
Canadian AECO Natural Gas Prices Update: Imagine if 11 years ago we started rapidly building the LNG Export Facilities on the West and East Coast of Canada. Canadian Natural Gas: US$1.20–1.30 per MMBtu Asia Natural Gas : $20.175 per MMBtu
Vancouver Island Guy 🌊 tweet media
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