ContraTurtle

In past 10 yrs, S&P500 biggest winners: 1) Nvidia (+23,671%) 2) AMD (+10,358%) 3) A??N (+3,005%) 4) Arista Networks (+2,750%) 5) Broadcom (+2,510%) No. 3 breaks this pattern, touching neither AI GPU boom nor data center infra. It also isn't part of the Mag7. This company is: $AXON To prepare for this ~8,000 word free deep-dive analysis available at contraturtle.com/the-quiet-comp…, I went through more than 25hrs of video footage on the Boldly Go Podcast and almost every interview @AxonRick has ever done, as well as decades of SEC filings and news articles dating back to 2005. With the stock down -42% from ATH, it is an interesting time to be studying this company. Enjoy! 🐢

@StockMarketNerd It’s quite the thing in HongKong

$META threads crossed 500M monthly active users. I love the company… but seriously… who are these people? 😂🙂 I have never met a consistent user of that app. And it feels like a ghost town compared to this one despite roughly similar monthly user counts.

@DRTnky Yeh prime is underrated

The learnings from this tweet was that most people agree that Fairprice sucks, and SS is the GOAT supermarket in Singapore Honorary mention was Prime Supermarket that has been quietly taking market share from FP Word on the street was that they offer really fresh produce at 50% the price of Fairprice Can someone validate? Else i may have to make a trip down myself

This was pear for the course

Cao Ni Ma

@scaling01 there could be a forbidden fruit effect on the contrary, expanding AI diffusion internally within the US where it really counts

For anyone wondering what this means: - Anthropic (and potentially future OpenAI, Google, xAI) models that cost billions to develop will make 0 revenue outside the US - a big double digit percentage of Anthropic (and potentially OpenAI, Google, xAI) workforce can no longer work there, because they are foreigners and are not allowed to use those models So Trump just made frontier model development effectively unprofitable and tremendously slowed down Anthropic (and potentially others in the future) He's handing China the win on a gold platter. *potentially: if the same restrictions are imposed on other frontier labs and models

Wtf?

"...this scenario is not bad for semis as the AI model layer leaves more of the margin to other layers, such as the data center and semis." - I thought that was a typo.. I would think more margins in fact go to the app layer that now have lower AI costs instead of semis

Today, the premise in the market is that semis and Anthropic will capture most of the value in the whole AI chain and that the SOTA model will always be used for the majority of economically valuable tasks. I think that premise is wrong to some extent and might be a small shock for the market. The reason we have used the SOTA model for almost every task so far is that its capabilities have only recently become useful enough to provide value for many work tasks, especially agentic AI. At the same time, model progress is accelerating, which means that we are getting more and more capable models faster. The main reason why we won't use SOTA for every task is because it will be too expensive for most tasks. I think that in a year, we will look back and see that the premise that the SOTA model captures most of the usage and value will be wrong. Now, don't get me wrong: SOTA models will always have value and use, especially in tasks such as drug discovery and science. So what happens to the market if SOTA models no longer capture most of the token's value? The biggest AI labs' revenue growth rates slow down, combined with pressure on their margins as competition on non-SOTA models explodes. At the same time, the ability of AI model providers to raise new funds on the market via debt or equity also gets harder as the premise of »AI model commoditization, « at least on some layers, gets attention again. This leads to a portion of their planned future compute commitments with hyperscalers and neoclouds being released (because they can't pay for it) to other companies in the market. In the short-term, it creates a gap where a portion of the compute that was »reserved« for the big AI model providers from data center builders gets released to other companies. That gap release of compute could further influence hyperscalers to reduce the steep growth curves of their CapEx spend, as the growth rates normalizes closer to the rates of non-AI model companies' ability to consume the tokens with smaller non-SOTA, more efficient models. In the long term, this scenario is not bad for semis as the AI model layer leaves more of the margin to other layers, such as the data center and semis. At the same time, data center builders' business economics improve (having multiple small clients paying for compute vs 2 or 3 big buyers means the buyers have less pricing power). In any case, the market is not prepared for this scenario, especially the gap that would happen in the short-term.

@signulll Good last point on innovator’s dilemma

i’ve owned every iphone ever made & i can safely now say this.. the new siri is a few years late but absurdly good. really good. like what it should've been from the very start. it's genuinely conversational. it has all of the context by default. it feels native as part of the iphone hardware itself. & the dedicated camera button finally justifies its existence as an instant visual intelligence trigger. the reactive layer is basically done. & apple did an excellent job here. lots of small elements to add over time though like custom instructions perhaps. but what’s still missing is proactive & agentic siri which is the siri that acts before you ask. that's the siri that notices, coordinates, books, filters, negotiates, & kills half the reasons you open apps in the first place. but that's also the version that eats the app store.

@pepemoonboy don't be afraid Pepe 🤡

Momma I’m scared $META

@DRTnky 🤡

With Singapore’s government latest measures to protect consumers, custom names on local banking payment system, PayNow (SG version of Venmo), has been discontinued Names are now “censored” versions when you make payment to another person Some results are… pretty interesting

$AXON hosts 50 times the amt of content $NFLX has in the cloud

$AXON is securing the upcoming FIFA world Cup matches with counter-drone technology youtu.be/pPGYlksB-dc?si…

@abigbluebird @DRTnky 🤣

@DRTnky How else will my cousin/uni-mate/family friend know that I’m doing better than them?

It's funny that people get into debt just to host weddings in Singapore A typical wedding in Singapore cost $30,000 and that's already considered the "cheaper" ones With the current median wage of $5,775 (including CPF), that's ~$70,000 per annum Now, imagine spending almost 50% of your annual income on a wedding and then you realise you actually still have bills to pay For some reason, lavish weddings have been normalised throughout generations A positive outcome though, is I do see my friend groups transitioning to smaller, practical weddings

@Chicky_Think Wrote a song on this topic, just released.. youtu.be/Rq1xIC7DxBg?si… 🐢

@ContraTurtleX Good sharing of your thoughts. Thanks!

The S&P 500 analysis vs property has been unlevered S&P 500 vs leveraged property all along. That's unfair. Let's fix it. If property uses 5× leverage, let's lever the S&P 500 too — at the maximum a retail investor can actually get. [1/6]

Everyone says Singapore property is a great investment. But did it actually beat the stock market over 30 years? I ran the numbers across condo, landed, HDB 4-room and 5-room — vs the S&P 500. The answer will surprise you. [1/8]

@LowAlphaHighVol That should chase the crocodiles away

Remember guys, if it flies, floats or fucks. Rent it. Sentosa Marina Fire #SentosaFire

@JapanTripFriend me too slurp

@ContraTurtleX Wow, I didn’t know that either! That’s really interesting. Either way, I love unagi😎

If I only had one free day during a trip to Tokyo, I probably wouldn't spend it in Tokyo. I'd take a train for about an hour and spend the day in Kamakura instead. Here's how I'd spend the day ↓

@Mr_Derivatives $MA is more exposed to cross-border payments. Given the current Middle East war uncertainties, not surprised

Of the 90 largest companies in the world, $MA is the worst performer ytd. Just hit a fresh 52 week low today too. Weird. 🤔