Barely Investible Capital Management Ltd

This is my quant

@pandawatch88 Vibe check

@LowAlphaHighVol waiting... quiet...

Interesting that out the new "new three" China policy sectors (AI, robots, biotech) the latter hasn't moved much the last 6 months. I'm watching. Smelling. Throwing grass at the wind. The sector had a great +100% during Jan-Sep 2025 on the back of IP licensing deals, then peaked with the rest of the market early October and rangebound since. Valuations are outrageous for Akeso and Kelun (and Insilico, but that's seen as AI). Innovent and Beigene are punchy at 10-7x P/S but just turned profitable growing at 40%. With a bit of imagination and a moderately optimistic attitude towards life, you can model a 2x here at 30x exit PE. You can always sell if you are wrong, you know that yes? I like Innovent, consensus name. Sector ETF may also be good, saves you from drug failures. Wuxi Apptec is doing great, but more of a global story. China is 20% of revenue. Besides IP licensing deals validating the tech, domestic policy is changing a bit in terms of drug pricing (negotiations to be included in the refund list were publicly broadcasted and brutal, with the government official only feeling a good job was done after squeezing max price from the poor pharma sales rep in front. After a lot of complains from end users about getting Temu quality drugs, there's guidance now to be more gentle on price). Since last year I've also noticed more and more mentions of China biotech innovation in US/EU interviews with industry CEOs, industry analysts, a16z and MTS podcast pundits etc. Unfortunately no names are usually mentioned (unlike when China AI is discussed) so there's no poster child for retail to buy. The only mentions about China biotech names tend to come in the US sanctions lists. PD: for economic historians, the old "new three" were EVs, batteries, and solar. there's even an "old three", I forgot what it was.

@DRTnky The level of enjoyment you get driving a car in Singapore: 0.1/10

POV: When you realise that the average price of a brand new car costs $160,000 in Singapore And you’re only allowed to drive it for 10 years

@pandawatch88 Tencent down 23% YTD is pretty wild to me. Not that I have a clue, but just checked and it's much worse than I expected.

Ready bois? national team and mainland uncles still on holis 2 more days, no one is here to save you.

@PauloMacro He’s a politician now. Has nothing to do with having been a fund manager.

Hard to believe he used to run money - either he knows better about how futures mkts work and is lying to himself and the audience, or he has no clue. These are mutually exclusive, and neither makes for a good money manager

@ASvanevik Achieving clarity in markets is an illusion. There’s always clarity 6 months away…

H2 should be good: 1/ CLARITY passed 2/ Hormuz open 3/ Rates down

@jukan05 Schroders Asia Total Return loves Mediatek, been in their top 10 forevs

Let’s admit what needs to be admitted. I was guilty of this as well, but North America-based analysts, across both the sell side and the buy side, have significantly underestimated MediaTek.

@wassielawyer It’s high status, it’s just hard to see when you’re young.

Some comments that having children is already “high status” - it isn’t. High cost does not equal high status. Female status games in Singapore in the millennial generation revolve around career, material goods, travel, general worldliness and aesthetics. Having a child directly fucks with all of the above. You lose out in your career to other women who delay having children. In fact the mere implication that you are married reduces your social climbing capacity. Your body gets nuked while your friends are posting bikini / workout thirst traps on Instagram. Cute coffee / night out selfies are replaced with far more expensive but less glamorous hospital visits. It gets worse when you give birth. Your entire identity becomes “mom” which the Singapore government has implied to be low status by aggressively encouraging women to outsource maternal functions to poorly paid Filipino and Indonesian domestic workers and infant cares / childcares. Your cost of travelling, another high status activity, increases and your travel efficiency goes down. This compounds with more children so what previously was a glamorous trip with no children and your boyfriend / husband taking pics of you to make your friends jealous instead becomes a dowdy family trip where you have to herd kids and change diapers. Child related costs are high but none of this directly translates to status. 2-3 months of premium childcare translates to a Chanel bag but has none of that Instagramability. An expanding family also makes it far more expensive to live at a high status address bc a 600 square foot apartment in a desirable neighbourhood is arguably affordable at $3000 per square foot but becomes oppressive at 1000+ square feet when you account for children, forcing very visible lifestyle “downgrades”. Post partum and breastfeeding body changes also makes it far harder to regain the petite Asian beauty standard (that was low effort to maintain pre childbirth), especially coupled with pressures of working, parenting and shitty sleep. So yeah, not hard to see why Singaporean women don’t want to have children or delay motherhood.

@MikeFritzell No photonics, no memory …

No offence, but this feels like the 2026 consensus

@agnostoxxx Buy the dip in 5, 4, 3, 2, 1…

Market closed. War resumes in 3,2,1…

@citrini @rennyzucker Honestly one of the sickest comeback stories and I’m here for it.

In August 2024, our analyst @rennyzucker wrote this section of our optics piece “Can You Hear Me Now?” on RAN with Nokia at $4. In early 2025, Nokia completed its acquisition of Infinera which strengthened its data center optical footprint and is now resulting in favored vendor status for Nvidia’s AI-RAN push. One must be pretty locked in to talk about this while telecom is in a brutal drawdown, hated by nearly everyone and Nokia has traded sideways for more than a decade. We still think $NOK has more than 100% upside from here.

@aguyandhisgirl1 @DRTnky My brother in Christ, WHERE are you eating?

@LowAlphaHighVol @DRTnky I’ve gotten Singapore belly more than Indo belly.

Cost in Singapore: $92 Cost in Bali: $30 Capitalism and currency arbitrage at its finest

There’s a Franklin Technology Fund I have in a retirement acc. PM is one Jonathan Curtis, global tech, but ZERO Samsung and SK Hynix. Missed memory in general. No $SNDK $INTC $QCOM $LITE $Q @FranklnTempletn please replace this 🗑️ with @citrini thanks.

I think I’ve fully come around to soccer. If I could change once thing, it wouldn’t be making the goal bigger or anything like that. But just if it’s a tie game, rather than going to penalty kicks, the winner should be whichever team had the higher Attack Momentum implied score.

@babyfolio Omg Asia value enjoooyyoooors might finally see their discounts narrowed because US retail is finally buying their value traps. Beautiful. Amazing. Capitalism at its finest.

Exactly. If you have an $IBKR account, take a look at SK Square($402340), it's a holding company that holds 20% of SK Hynix and is trading at 43% discount to NAV, you're basically getting SK Hynix for $350B 5Y Performance below 👇

@pandawatch88 Opinionated rant is the Scott Fitzgerald prose of the 2020s

I asked Claude to assess if my monthly letter is written by AI. Just a simple prompt, I did not ask it to be mean. It chose violence, and did not hold back 😭 😂 , brutal. Claude: "You'd have to *prompt* an AI to write this messily, which is more work than just writing it." "If AI is involved at all, it's at most for proofreading, and even that seems unlikely given the residual roughness."

It's time to PAnasoNIC. "Osaka, we have lift off"

@SantiagoAuFund Everyone knows by now, but the question is if there’s actually not going to be enough to go around and it doesn’t seem so obvious. SK and Samsung were able to secure new long term supply agreements. Helium was in mild oversupply pre war.

How many people know that Helium is more important to the semiconductor industry than it is to birthday balloons…? 🤔