Convallax

Convallax testnet is now live! The first options exchange on prediction markets. Trade calls and puts on event probabilities Prediction markets made outcomes tradable. Convallax makes the probability itself an underlying. A whole new era of trading market belief is here!

Nailed it!

Buy call options on World Cup markets!

Most people utilize prediction markets the same way - predict what will happen This is where @convallax is different, they are letting you bet on the price movement and action You heard that right; options for prediction market movements Calls and Puts on both YES and NO positions. In this case, I think that France is not winning the World Cup, and I can bet on the movement through their last 2 games. If they give up a goal to Spain early, their price will fall and I’ll bank! Check out @convallax and their testnet is live: convallax.com/predict

@THELamce @0xHvdes Its options on options

@0xHvdes @convallax hmm this is quite interesting so it's futures of futures?

prediction markets aren't just about being right at resolution most traders are already trading on how probabilities move before the event happens a poll drops, CPI comes out, a player gets injured, a major headline hits 40% becomes 55% this is exactly what @convallax is building around, and they're worth following the first options exchange for prediction markets, letting you trade options on prediction market probabilities with calls and puts on YES and NO markets instead of only buying YES or NO, you can trade the move before the outcome with defined downside and leveraged upside testnet is now live try it and become an early bird ↓ convallax.com/predict

@nftbotx @WYdaGOAT Sure can!

@WYdaGOAT @convallax can trading probability moves beat betting on final outcomes?

exploring a new trading concept today when most people think of prediction markets it's usually about picking the final outcome but in reality the probabilities behind those outcomes are constantly moving before the event is decided a YES share trading at $0.40 means the market is pricing roughly a 40% chance of that event happening every headline, cpi print, debate, sports result or crypto event can move that probability what if you could trade those probability moves instead? that's the idea behind @convallax, the first options exchange for prediction markets it lets you trade options on prediction market probabilities by buying calls and puts on YES and NO markets so you're trading the move before the outcome is decided their testnet is now live so it's a good chance to see how the concept actually works in practice it's a very new concept and could be the first of its kind i'll definitely be trying the testnet out and see if i can understand it better through some hands-on experience

@Edgewise_to @WYdaGOAT Well said!

@WYdaGOAT @convallax True — prices reflect the evolving belief distribution, not just the eventual call. Watching how the spread narrows as expiry nears reveals where the market’s confidence actually shifts.

@FuryMetaa @WYdaGOAT That's right!

@WYdaGOAT @convallax so we’re betting on betting now

@Kael_robiu @kozei convallax.com/predict

@kozei @convallax Link to the testnet?

Prediction markets tell you what the market thinks will happen. @convallax lets you trade how those probabilities move before the outcome. France is currently priced at 39% to win the 2026 World Cup. Will that probability rise or fall? As the first options exchange for prediction markets, Convallax brings calls and puts to YES/NO markets so you can trade the move, not just the result. Testnet is now live. 👀

Proud to have been audited by the best in class in the industry! @sherlockdefi audited the core Convallax contracts ahead of mainnet, covering the infrastructure behind our RFQ, collateral, minting, and settlement flow. One step closer to mainnet!

Link: docs.convallax.com/guides/securit…

Convallax has completed its security audit with @sherlockdefi. As we gear up for mainnet, this audit marks an important step in strengthening the protocol infrastructure ahead of launch. Security remains a core priority at Convallax. Full report below: 👇🏻

@0xd1namit Nice strat @0xd1namit

Really glad England and Argentina won yesterday, my World Cup winner trade is now guaranteed to be won Even though I faded the guys who were posting about this strategy, I still decided to try it myself as an experiment I bought the top 7 teams at 78.3c, 7,500 shares each. As you can see on the image, after the quarterfinals the position is already on 100c

This is beautiful, and exactly the kind of trade Convallax is being built for. The trader is long France, England, and Spain on the World Cup market and already sitting on solid gains. But buying all these YES positions means putting up full capital for each outcome. With options on these same markets, you could express similar directional views for a much smaller premium,and still get exposure if the probability moves in your direction. Same thesis. More capital efficient structure. That’s the power of options on prediction markets.

@waleswoosh @Polymarket Looks good here! Looking even better here @waleswoosh x.com/convallax/stat…

Hmmm @Polymarket looks good here

@breezyjpg @Polymarket @PolymarketSport @PolymarketTrade Looking good here

Hmmm Polymarket looks good here

We’ve seen mixed reactions to this. From a revenue perspective, it makes sense. Sports prediction markets are already a major part of volume, and platforms are clearly moving toward better monetization. This is how markets naturally evolve. As prediction markets scale, the next evolution is more capital-efficient instruments to trade probability outcomes. Options are one of the cleanest ways to achieve that. Convallax is building options on prediction markets, giving traders a way to get targeted exposure to probability moves with lower capital requirement, multiple timeframes and no liquidation risk. As prediction markets mature, the next layer is not just more markets. It is better instruments on top of them.

$25B/month in prediction market volume. $0 in options infrastructure. How long do you think that lasts?

@Maximilian_evm Great trade!

This trader has one of the largest positions on the World Cup Winner market on Polymarket. @rjw1#KHd3BAAG" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@rjw1#KHd3BAAG The wallet is sitting on over $1.6M in total profit across Polymarket, with its largest position currently on France winning the World Cup. That position is massive: 2.46M France YES shares, bought at an average price of 16.4c. France is now trading around 32.9c, putting the position value at roughly $809K, with around $405K in unrealized profit. Great trade, no doubt. But France is now deep in the knockout stages, and if they get knocked out, this position gets smoked almost overnight. For a position this large, the trader still has no clean way to hedge the downside without selling. There’s no native protection, no options chain, no way to lock in part of the gains while still keeping upside if France goes on to win. So the choice is pretty brutal: either hold the full event risk, or sell and give up the upside. This is exactly the gap Convallax is building for. With a put option on this exact market, the trader could hedge a portion of the position for a premium, protect against the downside if France loses, and still stay exposed if France keeps going. Prediction markets already have massive positions and real PnL. What they don’t have yet is proper risk management. That changes soon with Convallax.