Lawrence McDonald
90.9K posts
Lawrence McDonald
@Convertbond
NY Times Bestselling Author, pick up "When Markets Speak" on Amazon. Long-time @RealVision @CNBC Contributor, founder of the @BearTrapsReport
New York, NY Katılım Mart 2009
13.9K Takip Edilen143.6K Takipçiler
Lawrence McDonald retweetledi
There is a giant sucking sound in the United States…in just one week diesel inventories fell by 4%, gasoline inventories fell by 3%, and the SPR fell by 2%. The “battle for the barrel” ™️ is on. Impending and inevitable record low inventories = higher floor price for oil ($80?).
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In 2020, with global interest rates near 0%, Austria sold this hundred-year bond to investors. Today, the United Kingdom is offering almost 6% (5.77%) for 30 years, think about that.
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What do Global Yields Know?
30 Year Bonds
UK 5.21%*
US 4.85%
Japan 2.30%**
*Highest since 1998.
**Highest since 2010.
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Last time stocks were at all-time highs with Home Depot $HD in a 26% drawdown?
*Special thanks to the Bloomberg terminal.
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U.S. homes with foreclosure filings rose ~26% year-over-year in Q1 2026 (119,000), hitting a six-year high, driven largely by rising property taxes, insurance premiums, HOA fees, and other ownership costs rather than mortgage rates or a broad lending crisis.
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In October 2007, the S&P 500 closed at its all-time high, the final pre-GFC peak. At that exact time, $HD was in a ~23–24.5% drawdown from its then-recent highs (some analyses put the exact figure at –23.1% on that day). - with Grok
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@McClellanOsc Thank you, Tom. I appreciate you, my friend.
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Note the divergence now, and also the one at the early 2025 top, just before the tariff tantrum.
Lawrence McDonald@Convertbond
Last time stocks were at all-time highs with Home Depot $HD in a 26% drawdown? *Special thanks to the Bloomberg terminal.
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@Convertbond Last time SPY was down 0.37% on a Monday in May in a year ending with an even number while fartcoin was up 70 bps??
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"Your profit margin is my opportunity," -- Jeff Bezos.
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Duration is another hard asset driver - nearly every person on earth in long-term bonds has been losing money since 2022.
*Apple 2.55s due 2060: 105 to 53.
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@Convertbond Hi Larry just curious what % of that $BRK.A has to maintain in cash because of the insurance liabilities? Probably about 50% of that $400B?
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Buffett's Cash Position is now near $400B
- 14 straight quarters of net selling*, Berkshire exited another $8B of stocks in Q1.
*(bought ~$16B, sold ~$24B), data from official earnings/10-Q and 13F-related disclosures.
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@ericnuttall @BNNBloomberg Very well done Eric, gratitude 🙏
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It was a privilege to be the final interview guest of Andrew Bell's storied 25 year long career at @BNNBloomberg, fittingly covering the biggest energy crisis of our lifetimes: youtu.be/V75YP7GXhTk?si…
YouTube
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Lawrence McDonald retweetledi
@Convertbond Larry, the Trend CTAs just flipped to LONG S&Ps and Nasdaq (Russell in late Apr): - (SocGen Trend Indicator)
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Lawrence McDonald retweetledi
AI is not running on renewables.
It's running on gas and coal.
Per Bloomberg, combined cycle gas + coal will fuel most new data center power demand through 2035.
Solar and wind grow but late. Nuclear same.
The AI buildout is a fossil-infrastructure trade in green clothing.
I wrote about it, in my latest article 👇
themerchantsnews.substack.com/p/the-1-trilli…
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Alert - *US ISM MFG PRICES RISE TO 84.6, HIGHEST SINCE APRIL 2022 - Bloomberg.
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Federal Reserve - "We are really committed to our 2% inflation target, we mean 3%."
*Special thanks to the Bloomberg terminal.
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