Lawrence McDonald

Looking forward - not backward. Join us @BearTrapsReport - CIO - high-level PM discussions daily (buyside only). Since 2010, ideas dinners in more than 20 countries. The highest-quality financial market intelligence curation ever assembled. 1 million+ books sold / 12 languages.

@jackfellingham @jimcramer @TheJudgeCNBC Appreciate your efforts Jack.

@Convertbond @jimcramer @TheJudgeCNBC I have three working papers on this. I have to get my you know what gear and get at least one of them published.

The bigger passive investing becomes the FAR more game-able the outcome. $SPY ETF Size - S&P 500 2026: $81T 2016: $27T 2006: $19T cc @jimcramer @TheJudgeCNBC

Looking forward - not backward. Join us @BearTrapsReport - CIO - high-level PM discussions daily (buyside only). Since 2010, ideas dinners in more than 20 countries. The highest-quality financial market intelligence curation ever assembled. 1 million+ books sold / 12 languages.

Thank you, X (Twitter), since 2009, it's been rewarding in so many ways. Goodbye for now.

Mag7 + ORCL 2024–2028 free cash flow: Massive destruction underway. Strong 2024 baseline crushed by AI capex surge (hyperscalers $600B+ in ’26 alone). ORCL already –$24B FY26; group-wide stagnation/declines mid-period likely total hundreds of $B to $1T+ foregone cash. Front-loaded pain for the long awaited AI moat harvest. Power & compute bottlenecks key.

@phil_hellmuth @nick_hellmuth @WSOP Have a great time, Gents.

And, my youngest son @nick_hellmuth and I are still alive, still battling, in @wsop Main Event It’s Day 2 of the Main…Great to have my son Nick in da house! #POSITIVITY

Data centers are going to be a big campaign issue in November.

The Steel Manufacturers Association warns that surging data-center demand is driving up steel production costs by tens of millions of dollars annually. Canton, Ohio-based Metallus reported its electricity costs up roughly 70% since 2024, adding about $15 million per year, with its COO calling the trend “not sustainable.” While AI construction has boosted demand for steel products, steel executives say the rising energy costs threaten their competitiveness and operations.

WSJ - “AI Data Centers Have Been Great for the Steel Industry. Now, a Power Crisis Looms,” U.S. steelmakers that rely on electricity-intensive electric arc furnaces are facing sharply higher power costs as AI data centers compete aggressively for electricity on regional grids. Wholesale power prices in the PJM Interconnection region (home to many steel mills) jumped 76% year-over-year in Q1 2026.

A. Multipolar World - Iran Conflict + B. $1.9T Fiscal Deficits + C. $2.1T AI Capex Overdose = "6.0% PPI (producer prices) y/y is the highest since Dec 2022... time to tote out those 1970s inflation charts." via @MikeZaccardi

Waller - Fed policymakers remain committed to the 2% inf target and that commitment is credible.

Inflation - What happened to the Fed's beloved "2% target", the "dual mandate"? Warsh's new breakout groups need to find a way to ignore the core PCE reading. *Regime change; trimmed mean (aka, let's move the goal posts) is incoming fast.

As said on the pod last month…the price of poker is going up.

@BillAckman Thank you 🙏 Bill, all the best, have a great weekend.

If you find yourself on Lake Como, our family’s favorite restaurant is Navedano, ristorantenavedano.it/en/ a family-owned, beautiful restaurant set in spectacular gardens with superb food at reasonable prices. You will love it.

Hard assets, sound money thinking, and fiscal discipline are not fringe ideas anymore. They are survival. Happy Independence Day. Now let’s earn the next 250 years.

We see it clearly in Argentina, Turkey, and Venezuela. America is not immune. Celebrating our 250th birthday is right and good — but we must stop pretending the math works. The upward path of empire ends in abundance. The downward path has already begun.

On this 4th of July we celebrate 250 years of American independence and the birth of the greatest experiment in liberty. That said, a quote long attributed to 18th-century historian Alexander Tytler rings louder than ever: