Cornwall Insight

CI Live is back for its second year, bringing leaders from across the energy sector together on 4 November for a full day of in-depth insight and high-level debate at Glaziers Hall, London. Expect: • Headline addresses from policymakers, regulators and energy CEOs • Expert-led panels and focused breakout sessions • Cross-industry perspectives on what is transforming the energy landscape • Opportunities to connect with senior leaders and decision-makers We’re also delighted to announce our continued partnership with Evolve Energy, founding sponsor of CI Live 2025 and now a headline sponsor for both CI Live 2026 and CI Live 2027. Partnership opportunities are now open, with packages offering brand visibility, senior level engagement and potential speaker or panel roles. There’s limited availability, so get in touch with Robert at r.buckley@cornwall-insight.com for more information. Save the date and sign up for updates on registration, agenda announcements and speaker reveals: www2.cornwall-insight.com/l/1108203/2026…

Transmission spending is expected to increase sharply from £18bn across RIIO-ET2 to £70bn across RIIO-ET3. In addition, both Transmission Network Use of System (TNUoS) and Distribution Use of System (DUoS) charges are rising. For developers and generators, understanding what’s driving these shifts, and where the uncertainty sits, is essential. In case you missed it, our blog pulls together five critical developments that are likely to shape the trajectory of electricity network costs over the coming years. We break down what’s changing and why it matters for future investment and operational decisions, from ET3 uncertainty mechanisms and Ofgem’s charging reforms to the system-wide planning shift under NESO’s Strategic Energy Planning. Read the full blog here: cornwall-insight.com/thought-leader…

Escalating conflict in the Middle East is reshaping global energy markets – our overview shows you how. In just days, we’ve seen major LNG disruptions, shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz, and the sharpest gas and oil price movements since early 2023. ⚡ What does this mean for GB and Europe? ⚡ How exposed are we compared to 2022? ⚡ And what happens if disruption continues? We’ve written a short overview of the impact of the conflict on energy markets, and why the industry is watching developments so closely: cornwall-insight.com/thought-leader… Industry Essentials customers can read the full analysis on our CATALYST portal: catalyst.cornwall-insight.com/article?id=69a…

Data centres are often seen as a strain on Ireland’s energy system, but could they be one of the energy transitions greatest assets? As Ireland transitions towards 2030 renewables targets, high levels of dispatch down continue to present a barrier to the rollout of renewables. Too often, clean energy is generated but can’t be used, slowing progress and frustrating developers. By connecting large energy users such as data centres, Ireland could tap into additional demand that absorbs excess renewable generation. That means lower curtailment, fewer locational constraints, and a more efficient path to net zero. Download our new blog to explore the latest policy and regulatory developments shaping data-centre connections and flexibility, and how they could unlock a faster, more resilient clean‑energy future: cornwall-insight.com/thought-leader…

The Renewables Obligation (RO) is preparing for major reform. From April 2026 the buy‑out price will shift from the Retail Price Index (RPI) to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), lowering expected ROC values. In addition, later this year government is due to provide an update to its potential introduction of Fixed Price Certificates (FPCs) from 2027. While the changes aim to reduce volatility, our research shows mixed views from developers and generators. Across the market, uncertainty around pricing and implementation remains a key concern. Our new insight paper, the first in a two-part series, breaks down the upcoming reforms and what they could mean for RO generators and developers. Read here: cornwall-insight.com/thought-leader…

In our latest episode of the Energy Essentials Podcast, Tom Edwards (Principal Modeller) and Dr. Craig Lowrey (Principal Consultant) discuss the recent volatility in wholesale energy markets following developments in the Iran conflict. Craig & Tom explore how geopolitical tensions are influencing natural gas and electricity prices, what has driven market movements over the past week, and what it could mean for the energy sector going forward. They discuss the short and long-term implications across domestic and business energy bills, as well as the implications for investors. Listen here: bit.ly/4cxtnpu

@ronlondoncon We will be putting out a new price cap prediction today.

@CornwallInsight Hello, when will you be doing next refresh of the July price cap please? Thank you

Would you like a clearer understanding of Power Purchase Agreements? Join our expert-led Power Purchase Agreements – Structures, Markets & Pricing training on 25 - 26 March. In this advanced online course, our experts will explain the main parties involved in Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs), how different types of contracts work and the key terms. This short course also focuses on how electricity is priced, the treatment of other cost elements, and considerations for different types of generators and purchasers. Ideal for project developers and investors, legal advisors, electricity suppliers and generators. Find out more and register today: cornwall-insight.com/training/power…

Over the weekend, the United States and Israel launched joint missile strikes against Iran, prompting retaliatory action, with Iranian missiles striking countries across the region. While the human consequences of escalating tensions will rightly remain the primary global focus, the repercussions are already being felt in international energy markets. Key developments: 🔷Joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran have triggered Iranian retaliation that is impacting major oil and gas producing states in the Arab Gulf. 🔷Iran has warned ships not to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20% of the world's oil and gas travels, with some vessels having been attacked. At least 150 tankers have now dropped anchor in open Gulf waters beyond the Strait of Hormuz. 🔷Qatar's state-owned energy company, QatarEnergy, has halted its production of LNG following Iranian attacks on some of its facilities. 🔷Since markets opened this morning, April 2026 gas prices have risen to 119.5p/th from 78.6p/th on Friday, with winter 2026 contracts rising to 101.0p/th, from 80.7p/th on Friday. 🔷Since Friday, Day Ahead Power Prices have risen from £76.00/MWh to £99.25/MWh. This increase is likely driven by forecast low wind generation in the days ahead, although higher gas prices may also be contributing. Wider context and impacts: 🔷Gas storage levels in GB and Europe are naturally lower as winter ends. Current levels are not an immediate concern, but steady injections from LNG over the coming months are important for plans to rebuild stocks for next winter. 🔷GB storage currently sits around 28.8% full, up from 27.5% last week, and EU storage is around 30.2% full, compared with 31.1% the previous week. 🔷The GB system expected six LNG cargoes in the coming week: three from the USA, one from Qatar, one from Nigeria and one from Algeria. 🔷The UK is less reliant on Qatari LNG than during the post‑Ukraine crisis, with Qatar supplying around 6.5% of UK LNG imports over the past year, compared with around 69% from the USA since 2023. 🔷Other countries are more reliant on Qatari LNG and will therefore be more affected by interruptions to supply. This could lead to greater competition for LNG from other sources, pushing up global LNG prices. 🔷Looking ahead, prolonged uncertainty in regional supply could make summer refilling more demanding and gradually increase price pressure for next winter, but there is no suggestion of immediate system stress.

Non-domestic gas demand is widely expected to fall as businesses transition to lower carbon energy, but our latest research shows a more detailed story. Although gas volumes have declined by 19% over the last five years, the market remains competitive and increasingly consolidated specifically in I&C gas. SME suppliers are strengthening their gas portfolios, supported by stronger gas profitability compared to electricity. Our new blog breaks down the latest gas volume trends, the drivers behind rising supplier interest and what this means for the sector as decarbonisation accelerates. Read here: cornwall-insight.com/thought-leader…

The price cap is falling in April, but will this trend continue? Ofgem has confirmed exactly what we forecast - the price cap for April-June 2026 will be falling to £1,641 per year for a typical dual-fuel household, a saving of £117, or 7%, on current bills. This will bring real relief to households after a prolonged period of pressure on their energy bills. The fall is largely down to policy rather than market forces. Moving 75% of Renewables Obligation costs into general taxation, combined with the end of the Energy Company Obligation scheme in March, accounts for the bulk of the reduction. We have also seen a slight fall in wholesale prices over the past three months. So, will bills keep falling? Our early forecasts suggest July's cap will come in at £1,645, broadly similar to April, but the picture is getting more complicated. Wholesale markets have turned more volatile since the start of the year. The April cap benefited from calmer conditions in late 2025; July is being priced against a more turbulent backdrop, with geopolitical pressures adding to the volatility. In short, the direction of travel for the rest of 2026 is far from certain, and the next few months of data will be telling. We've published our full analysis here: cornwall-insight.com/press-and-medi… Want price cap forecasts out to 2030? Find out more about our price cap service: cornwall-insight.com/predictions-an…

Looking to understand how heat decarbonisation will evolve? Join our expert-led Net Zero Transition: Low Carbon Heat training on 17 - 18 March. In this advanced online course, part of our ‘Net Zero Transition’ training series, our experts will unpack the challenges to decarbonising the heat sector. The course also covers the latest policy and regulatory developments, low carbon heat technologies, and the range of pathways to meet net zero heat demand. Ideal for professionals across the energy sector, including investors, regulators and local government. Find out more and register today: cornwall-insight.com/training/net-z…

Electricity network costs are entering a period of major change and the implications for developers and generators are significant. With transmission spending set to rise from £18bn to nearly £70bn and both Transmission Network Use of System (TNUoS) and Distribution Use of System (DUoS) costs rising, understanding these changes early is essential. Our latest blog outlines the top five developments you need to be aware of, including ET3’s uncertainty mechanisms, Ofgem’s changing reforms, and the system-wide planning changes emerging through NESO’s Strategic Energy Planning. It sets out what these shifts mean and why they matter for future investment and operational decisions. Read the full blog here: cornwall-insight.com/thought-leader…

To know where Contract for Difference AR8 is going, you first need to understand how AR7 went. Two auctions, record-breaking capacity & a reshuffled competitive landscape, AR7 broke the mould. But it also exposed limits & capacity gaps that AR8 has to fix. Cornwall Insight's latest blog is an honest breakdown of what AR7 and AR7a got right, what it got wrong, & what that means for the road to Clean Power 2030. Download the free blog: cornwall-insight.com/thought-leader…

Our final price cap forecast for April to June 2026 predicts the cap will fall by £117 to £1,641 a year for a typical household. That’s around a 7% drop from the current cap. ❓ Why are prices going down? The drop in energy bills is driven mostly by the policy decisions included in the November 2025 Budget. 75% of the Renewables Obligation has been moved off bills and into general taxation, and the Energy Company Obligation is ending in March. Together they take about £145 out of the cap for an average household. ❓So why won’t people see the full £145 cut in bills? Increases in the charges associated with the operation and maintenance of the country’s energy networks have offset part of these savings. ❓What’s going on with wholesale prices? Wholesale gas and electricity prices for the cap period have risen slightly since our December Q2 forecast, with gas prices in particular having been volatile since the start of 2026 due to geopolitical factors. Despite this rise, the comparatively lower prices seen in the final weeks of 2025 mean wholesale costs are still down compared with the January cap. ❓What happens next? Looking ahead, we currently expect the price cap to remain relatively steady throughout 2026, with only a small rise forecast in July. But a lot can happen between then and now. Read the full statement on our website: cornwall-insight.com/press-and-medi…

New to the GB energy sector? Join our expert-led Introduction to the GB Energy Markets Academy training on 10 - 13 March. This interactive online course gives you a clear, practical introduction to the GB energy market. Our experts break down how the retail and wholesale energy markets operate in Great Britain, covering key policy programmes aimed at decarbonising the sector, and how network infrastructure is regulated and charged for. Ideal for those starting a career in energy, moving into the sector, or supporting those within the energy industry. Find out more and register today: cornwall-insight.com/training/intro…

Great Britain is sitting on a £750bn global opportunity that could actually reduce the cost of reaching net zero. The secret? Getting industrial and commercial energy users like factories, hospitals, and supermarkets to shift when they consume and generate electricity. New research from Cornwall Insight, in partnership with @IntegrateToZero, reveals that embracing Industrial and Commercial (I&C) flexibility is one of the most cost‑effective ways to balance the electricity grid and can lower the need for expensive grid upgrades. This, in turn, helps lower energy bills for households and businesses while strengthening the resilience of the grid. The study reveals the benefits of I&C flexibility and market barriers stopping this from happening, not just in GB, but across Germany, Australia, Ireland and Texas. Find out why some countries are already racing ahead while others fall behind. Read the full report - Global I&C Flexibility: Market Structures and Participation: cornwall-insight.com/thought-leader… Find the press release: cornwall-insight.com/press-and-medi…

Do you fully understand the commercial drivers shaping clearing prices and how they could impact your revenues? Our Capacity Market Forecast provides detailed analysis of clearing prices for both the T-1 and T-4 auctions. We use a combination of our long-term power market forecasts, as well as our auction simulation tools to produce both auction-specific forecasts based on prequalification registers, as well as a 30-year outlook for T-4 auction clearing prices. We detail expected trends and competitive dynamics expected for the auctions, and provide updates when auction parameters change. Our Capacity Market services are built on a unique combination of: - Advanced power market and dispatch modelling - Deep insight into policy, auction design and regulatory change - Detailed technology-specific cost and performance analysis - A strong track record of supporting successful auction outcomes With the T-1 auction held from 3 March, and T-4 auction 10 March, preparing bid prices now is essential to be successful. Get in touch today: cornwall-insight.com/analysis/forec…