Cornwall Insight

Registration is now open for CI Live 2026 📣 Now in its second year, CI Live returns to Glaziers Hall, London on 4 November 2026, bringing together senior leaders from across the energy sector for a full day of market-leading insight, high-level debate and networking. For a limited time, save 20% on your ticket with code SUPEREARLY20 at checkout. This offer is available until 4 June 2026, so don't wait too long. Secure your place and super early bird rate: web-eur.cvent.com/event/5672b475…

If E.ON's acquisition of OVO Energy gets the green light, Britain's household energy market will look quite different. We’ve crunched the numbers to show what that could look like: 🔷 How would market share change? Our Domestic Market Share Survey puts the combined E.ON/OVO entity at around 25% of the market, which would make it the second largest domestic supplier in Great Britain, just behind Octopus at 26% - it’s very tight at the top of the market. 🔷 What share would the ‘Big Five’ control? Six energy companies currently hold over 90% of the household energy market, this will fall to five if the deal completes, with the top three together accounting for close to three quarters of all supply. 🔷 Why do market share figures differ? You might have seen different figures to ours on the E.ON/OVO deal. There's a reason for that. Domestic market share can be measured in different ways. Cornwall Insight measures market share by the total number of electricity and gas accounts a supplier has on live supply, this means dual fuel households who receive both gas and electricity are counted as two accounts. By contrast, much of the coverage is using customer accounts, here a dual fuel customer is only counted once, regardless of how many fuels are supplied. Supplier rankings may differ depending on the metric being used. 🔷 Energy accounts or customer accounts - which matters more? Neither approach is wrong, however, energy accounts are generally considered a more meaningful measure of domestic supplier scale. because they better reflect the number of supply points being served and the overall size of a supplier’s retail portfolio. 🔷 Where can I keep up to date with the energy supply market? If you want to stay across how the supply market is shifting, our Energy Supply intelligence service has you covered, from proprietary market share data to pricing analysis and financial information – find out more and book a demo: cornwall-insight.com/products/energ…

Is the island of Ireland's energy transition on track, and what does it mean for future prices and revenues? With geopolitical tensions disrupting global commodity markets and the Single Electricity Market (SEM) reliant on imported fossil fuels, uncertainty around future energy prices is growing. Against this backdrop, the strategic importance of indigenous renewable energy is coming into sharper focus and the drive to accelerate renewable deployment is gaining momentum. Join our free webinar on Thursday 28 May at 11:00am, where our independent experts will explore: - Current status: The critical role of grid development and system flexibility in enabling progress towards our 2030 renewable energy targets - Where prices are going: The long-term direction of SEM wholesale electricity prices - Key drivers: Gas prices, demand growth and future generation build-out - As well as an introduction to our enhanced SEM Power Market Forecast and SEM Flexibility Power Market Forecast Don't miss this opportunity to hear directly from our experts and put your questions to the team. Register Today: cornwall-insight.com/events-and-web…

"Why is gas setting the price of electricity?" has gone from a niche industry debate to a question people are genuinely asking around kitchen tables, and with good reason. Since gas prices spiked following the conflict in the Middle East, the pressure on electricity bills has been hard to ignore. The government has now put forward plans which aim to reduce how much gas can pull the whole market up with it. Our analyst Alex Livingston has taken a closer look at the policies: how they are designed to work, and where the challenges are likely to be. 🔷 Read the blog here: cornwall-insight.com/thought-leader… For deeper analysis, Industry Essentials customers can access 'State versus Market: A Turning Point in GB Energy Policy' on CATALYST, examining the implications of this and Reformed National Pricing: catalyst.cornwall-insight.com/energy-spectru… Not yet a customer? A 14-day free trial gets you access to this piece and more, plus daily market updates: solutions.cornwall-insight.com/industry-essen…

Today the Government announced a package of measures aimed at reforming the UK’s energy system. These include updates to market reforms under the Review of Electricity Market Arrangements (REMA) and breaking the link between gas and electricity prices: gov.uk/government/new… KEY ANNOUNCEMENTS ON DELINKING GAS AND ELECTRICITY MARKETS: 🔷 Introduction of a Wholesale Contract for Difference: A voluntary long-term fixed-price contract for existing non-Contract for Difference (CfD) renewable generators. This will be introduced later this year, with an allocation process intended to be run in 2027. Further details and the consultation are expected this year. Renewables Obligation (RO) generators would likely continue to receive top-up support, but would have their wholesale revenue fixed. 🔷 Increasing the Electricity Generators Levy (EGL) from 45% to 55% The Government will use the additional tax on excess profits of renewable generators during periods of high gas prices to support businesses and households with high energy costs. The Government hopes this will act as an incentive for eligible generators to move onto a Wholesale Contract for Difference. TODAY’S ANNOUNCEMENTS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDE‑RANGING IMPACTS IN THE MARKET, THESE INCLUDE: 🔷 Upheaval in the Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) market: ~35GW of renewable capacity is under a PPA. Any Wholesale Contract for Difference would need to beat the ~80-90% wholesale pass-through rates seen in these to incentivise generator uptake. Depending on contract details, this could see many PPAs being renegotiated. 🔷 More stability, but potentially limited cost reduction for end consumers: The need to price Wholesale Contract for Differences in line with PPA pricing could limit the energy cost reductions seen by the consumer. Additionally, Wholesale Contract for Differences could bring slightly higher balancing costs from curtailed RO generators, due to higher recoverable revenue 🔷 A route for repowering? – If available for repowering sites, a Wholesale Contract for Difference would present a good method of securing long-term income without needing to compete against new build projects in the normal CfD process, which will also help to utilise existing grid infrastructure. Look out for our upcoming post on the latest REMA announcements from the Government. If you are a customer, more analysis on today’s announcements will be published on CATALYST over the next few days: catalyst.cornwall-insight.com/home Not a customer? Our daily energy bulletins and weekly energy analysis are both included with our Industry Essentials service - sign-up to our FREE 14-day trial: solutions.cornwall-insight.com/industry-essen…

Looking for the stats shaping the energy transition - The Spring issue of @InsightEnergy1 magazine is out now, featuring Cornwall Insight’s Big Stats page from Lucy Dolton, Renewable Generation Lead. From winter generation to year‑on‑year capacity growth, the data highlights just how fast the market is moving. Want to go beyond the headline figures? Our Low Carbon services can help you track the latest developments across low carbon generation markets: cornwall-insight.com/analysis/marke…

Join us next week for our free webinar: RIIO‑ET3 and Beyond: Understanding the Future of Network Charging. With the ET3 framework now live, the energy sector is entering a critical period. Significant transmission investment to meet Clean Power 2030 goals, alongside developments in Strategic Energy Planning and the future grid design, is reshaping the network charging landscape – while cost volatility and delayed charging reforms continue to challenge confidence and planning. In this focused session on Tuesday 21 April at 10.30am BST, our experts will share practical insight on how to navigate this evolving environment, including: - Strategic Energy Planning and its implications for the RIIO‑ET3 price control period - How upcoming changes could reshape network design and charging structures - A live demonstration of our exclusive Network Charging Forecast - An interactive Q&A with our expert panel Register your place today: cornwall-insight.com/events-and-web…

Cornwall Insight’s Energy Supply Lead, Tom Goswell, joined the @WhichUK Money Podcast to discuss what the Middle East conflict means for your energy bills. As the conflict in the Middle East continues to drive volatility across global gas and oil markets, the impact on UK consumers is becoming harder to ignore. Tom shares Cornwall Insight’s latest thinking, from what’s behind rising prices, to how this could filter through to household bills, and what government intervention might look like if costs remain high into winter. 👉 Listen here: which.co.uk/news/article/w…

As the Renewables Obligation (RO) begins to wind down, many generators are approaching a critical transition. Our new insight paper, the second in a two-part series, explores the post‑subsidy options available to RO generators, the risks they face, and where opportunities may still exist. From March 2027, the earliest RO-accredited assets will start rolling off the scheme, with no direct replacement subsidy currently in place. While a range of post‑subsidy routes to market exist, our research shows that none fully replace RO revenues, and viability varies widely depending on technology and asset characteristics. Read here: cornwall-insight.com/thought-leader…

Make sure you get ahead of the changes shaping storage revenues. Join our free webinar next week, on Tuesday 14 April at 10:00am BST. With flexibility revenues softening this winter and commercial innovation accelerating across the market, storage owners are reassessing how to build greater stability into their commercial strategies. In this focused webinar, our experts will break down the key trends shaping storage revenues and what they mean for long‑term investment. Our experts will explore: - Key market trends affecting storage revenues - The rapid growth of lower‑risk routes to market - Emerging revenue‑stabilisation models - What these developments mean for the future of storage investment Don’t miss this opportunity to gain clarity and strengthen your commercial strategy. Register here: cornwall-insight.com/events-and-web…

One month on. How has the Middle East conflict moved energy markets? The world's largest LNG plant has been damaged. 17% of Qatar's export capacity is offline. Repairs could take three to five years. One month into the Middle East conflict, Cornwall Insight Analyst Alex Livingston has dug into the data - wholesale prices, supply constraints, and why the post Russian invasion of Ukraine energy landscape may have helped cushion the overall impact. Get the full picture by downloading the blog: cornwall-insight.com/thought-leader… Finding it difficult to keep up with developments? Daily Middle East conflict updates and weekly energy analysis are both included in our Industry Essentials service - sign-up to our FREE 14-day trial: solutions.cornwall-insight.com/industry-essen…

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are sending ripples through global energy markets, and the effects are being felt at home. In the UK retail energy market, suppliers have started withdrawing household fixed tariffs, tightening availability and adopting a more cautious approach as wholesale volatility grows. Written by our analyst Cecilia Fonseca, Cornwall Insight's latest blog - using data from our Domestic Tariff Report - explores what’s driving these shifts, how today’s response compares with the 2021–22 energy crisis, and whether strengthened regulation is helping stabilise the market. Download our blog here: cornwall-insight.com/thought-leader… Find out more about our Energy Supply Market Intelligence, including our weekly Domestic Tariff Report: cornwall-insight.com/analysis/marke…

Ahead of April’s price cap fall, we have released new forecasts for the July 2026 cap. Forecasts for July now sit at £1,929 per year for a typical dual‑fuel household. While predictions have dipped slightly in the past few days - £44 since 19 March - the forecast still represents a rise of £288 or 18% percent on the April 2026 level of £1,641. The slight reduction in the forecast follows a partial steadying in wholesale markets after a pause in energy infrastructure strikes and signals of a potential ceasefire in the Middle East conflict. However, markets are still feeling the impacts of the conflict and remain highly volatile. With @ofgem's price cap announcement just weeks away, infrastructure damage and continued disruption to marine traffic through the Strait of Hormuz are limiting the potential for any meaningful wholesale price fall. As a result, some of the increase is already effectively baked in. A rise in July is pretty much unavoidable, but how high prices go remains to be seen. Despite the rise, it is worth noting that current wholesale costs remain well below the extremes of 2022, which means that, despite the turbulence, the scale of this crisis is not yet comparable to the price shock households faced three years ago. Read our full release here: cornwall-insight.com/press-and-medi…

Rising energy market volatility is creating real challenges for UK businesses. Analysis from our Business Energy Cost Forecast – featured in @thetimes - shows that wholesale price increases linked to the Middle East conflict could mean significant bill rises for some organisations: thetimes.com/uk/politics/ar… For small industrial and commercial businesses - think larger retail and leisure sites, or small manufacturers - renewing contracts right now means: ⚡ Electricity bills up £96,000 on early February levels, now averaging £578,000 for a 12-month contract. ⚡ Gas bills up £376,000, now averaging just over £1.02mn a year As our Energy Users Lead Jacob Briggs says, these shifts are landing at a particularly tough time. April is one of the busiest renewal periods of the year, and many businesses are already carrying tighter margins than usual. Businesses that have been able to plan, by hedging energy costs, fixing prices ahead of time or investing in on-site generation to lower the need for grid imports, are better placed to weather spikes like this one. However, for companies entering into new contracts right now or with limited hedging exposure, continuing high wholesale prices are feeding through into increased energy bills. If you’re exploring ways to future‑proof your energy costs find out more here: cornwall-insight.com/analysis/forec…

Exclusive from @oliver_wright Businesses across the UK are facing “eye-watering” rises in their energy bills because of the conflict in the Middle East, analysis for The Times suggests Unlike households, companies are not insulated from volatility in gas and electricity prices, which have almost doubled since the Iran war began The problem is particularly acute for the thousands of companies that fix their annual price tariff at the start of the financial year in April and will face an immediate sharp rise in their bills Analysis by the energy consultancy Cornwall Insight found that as a result of the conflict, business users’ electricity bills would rise by up to 30 per cent, while the cost of gas could go up by as much as 80 per cent This would mean that a business such as a larger retail and leisure site, on an average 12-month electricity contract, would have an annual bill of £578,000 — £95,000 more than early last month For gas, bills have risen by £376,000, reaching just over £1.02 million a year, an increase of nearly 60 per cent, based on the latest wholesale prices thetimes.com/uk/politics/ar…

As GB's renewable capacity accelerates toward 2030 targets, price cannibalisation is becoming one of the defining challenges of the energy transition. When renewables generate simultaneously at high levels, the system becomes saturated with low or zero-marginal cost energy, supressing wholesale prices during peak output hours. Renewables can essentially erode their own market value. So, what does this mean for the future of the energy transition? Our Analyst Alexander Livingston explores this critical issue in his latest piece for @Energy_Global , covering: 🔷What price cannibalisation is and why it matters 🔷Lessons from GB's 2020 COVID lockdowns and international markets 🔷How CfDs, Reformed National Pricing, and the Clean Flexibility Roadmap could shape the path forward With wind and solar set to grow exponentially over the next few years, understanding, and mitigating, this effect has never been more important. Read the full analysis in March’s Energy Global: energyglobal.com/magazine/energ…

De-risking energy storage revenues is becoming increasingly essential – are you prepared for what’s ahead? With flexibility revenues softening this winter and commercial innovation accelerating across the market, storage owners are reassessing how to build greater stability into their commercial strategies. In this focused webinar, our experts will break down the key trends shaping storage revenues and what they mean for long‑term investment. Join our free webinar on Tuesday 14 April at 10:00am GMT, where our experts will explore: - Key market trends affecting storage revenues - The rapid growth of lower‑risk routes to market - Emerging revenue‑stabilisation models - What these developments mean for the future of storage investment Don’t miss this opportunity to gain clarity and strengthen your commercial strategy. Register here: cornwall-insight.com/events-and-web…

Transmission spending is expected to increase sharply from £18bn across RIIO-ET2 to £70bn across RIIO-ET3. In addition, both Transmission Network Use of System (TNUoS) and Distribution Use of System (DUoS) charges are rising. For developers and generators, understanding what’s driving these shifts, and where the uncertainty sits, is essential. In case you missed it, our blog pulls together five critical developments that are likely to shape the trajectory of electricity network costs over the coming years. We break down what’s changing and why it matters for future investment and operational decisions, from ET3 uncertainty mechanisms and Ofgem’s charging reforms to the system-wide planning shift under NESO’s Strategic Energy Planning. Read the full blog here: cornwall-insight.com/thought-leader…

Escalating conflict in the Middle East is reshaping global energy markets – our overview shows you how. In just days, we’ve seen major LNG disruptions, shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz, and the sharpest gas and oil price movements since early 2023. ⚡ What does this mean for GB and Europe? ⚡ How exposed are we compared to 2022? ⚡ And what happens if disruption continues? We’ve written a short overview of the impact of the conflict on energy markets, and why the industry is watching developments so closely: cornwall-insight.com/thought-leader… Industry Essentials customers can read the full analysis on our CATALYST portal: catalyst.cornwall-insight.com/article?id=69a…