County Line Forecast

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County Line Forecast

County Line Forecast

@CountyLineFcst

Forecasting every state in the ‘26 midterms, county-by-county. Every model, even betas, are rigorously backtested with 35+ yrs of data. Model goes live on 5/1

Katılım Mart 2026
89 Takip Edilen62 Takipçiler
County Line Forecast
County Line Forecast@CountyLineFcst·
The model is based on 35 years of data compiled from senate, presidential, and governor races in NC. It’s then weighed against current polls and the national environment. It’s also been backtested against 4 NC senate races with an average miss of 1-2 points. If the model showed Whatley winning, I’d post it just the same. It’s data driven and tested, but people like you get mad just because the data doesn’t show what you like. Sorry your feelings are hurt.
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InteractivePolls
InteractivePolls@IAPolls2022·
NORTH CAROLINA POLL - Senate 🟦 Roy Cooper: 48% 🟥 Michael Whatley: 34% —— NC Generic Ballot 🟦 DEM: 43% 🟥 GOP: 38% —— Supreme Court Generic Ballot 🟦 DEM: 43% 🟥 GOP: 36% —— Net Approval Gov. Stein: (+22) Sen. Tillis: (-5) Pres. Trump: (-13) Catawba College/YouGov | 3/9-18 catawba.edu/news/all-news/…
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Chaz Nuttycombe
Chaz Nuttycombe@ChazNuttycombe·
FWIW IMO the generic ballot is likely heading for D+10 ATM. In like the actual results controlling for uncontesteds not polling.
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Joe
Joe@electionsjoe·
The Massachusetts State House 5th Essex District Special Election is currently at D +38. A 4-point shift left from 2024 (Harris +34).
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NBC News
NBC News@NBCNews·
President Donald Trump said that he plans to take the extraordinary step of attending Supreme Court oral arguments Wednesday in a case that could end birthright citizenship in the U.S. nbcnews.com/politics/supre…
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County Line Forecast
County Line Forecast@CountyLineFcst·
@NBCNews Let’s see how this plays out in the midterms. According to my most recent county by county models, not so good:
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County Line Forecast
County Line Forecast@CountyLineFcst·
@atwaSDOK @IAPolls2022 This is a beta model, so top line numbers are sometimes not fully calibrated/running off of stale data. But I’d love to hear your thoughts on why this won’t be a close race.
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County Line Forecast
County Line Forecast@CountyLineFcst·
@IAPolls2022 And it’s these margins with independents that are leading to the Dem surge in my Senate models. Ohio and Michigan shown below. Full interactive county-by -county results for every state in the 26 midterms goes live on 5/1!
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InteractivePolls
InteractivePolls@IAPolls2022·
📊 Gallup Q1 2026 Party ID (with independent leaners) 🟦 Democrat: 49% 🟥 Republican: 39% D+10 — the widest Democratic edge in 16 years (was R+4 in Q4, 2024)
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wauk 🇺🇸
wauk 🇺🇸@rep_favorite·
Top 20 counties that have shifted the most to the right from 1984 —> 2024
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County Line Forecast
County Line Forecast@CountyLineFcst·
@electionsjoe Now that we likely have a known R nominee, we’ll have to see how it affects our county by county model. We’ll also start seeing more Talarico/Paxton polls. Below is the current Texas beta model, showing essentially a toss up. Full model goes live on 5/1!
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County Line Forecast
County Line Forecast@CountyLineFcst·
@GregTSargent Trump’s low approval rating is affecting statewide races, including NC, where Roy Cooper has opened up a sizable lead. County by county projection for NC shown below. Full model, mapping every county in every state in the midterm, goes live on 5/1!
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.@GregTSargent·
Milestone: Trump's approval has fallen below 40% in NYT polling averages for the first time:
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County Line Forecast
County Line Forecast@CountyLineFcst·
North Carolina county-by-county Senate map complete! Couple notes: - I dialed back the sensitivity of the NYTimes style prediction ticker, as its outputs were too aggressive. - Polling average is 70% of the input for this specific model, and polls are showing a very sizable Cooper lead. If polls tighten, so will the model. -This would be the biggest democratic Senate blowout in NC since Kay Hagan in 2008.
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Chaz Nuttycombe
Chaz Nuttycombe@ChazNuttycombe·
GALLUP LEANED PARTY ID FOR 2026 Q1 NOW OUT: 2025 Q3: 48-41 DEM (+7 D) 2025 Q4: 48-40 DEM (+8 D) 2026 Q1: 49-39 DEM (+10 D) This is the largest recorded party ID advantage DEMs have had in any quarter since Gallup started tracking it in Q1 2015. GOP has never fallen below 40!
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Keşfet

@IAPolls2022 @tencor_7144 @kingsofkc1738 @electionsjoe @NBCNews @atwaSDOK @USA_Polling @speedobandit