James Zark
20.6K posts

James Zark
@CournalWinstead
Nothing but Common Sense
Katılım Eylül 2022
3.6K Takip Edilen1.2K Takipçiler
James Zark retweetledi

TONIGHT: Tucker Carlson and Joe Kent on the America First solution that Trump can use to move forward on Iran. Watch LIVE at 6 PM ET only on TuckerCarlson.com.

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@lady_valor_07 Another tipping BOT. Insta block the stupidity
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@Agrippa_Inv I own both. Have always trimmed rips in both. Extremely volatile names that will need to raise capital throughout buildouts.
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Why I’m Not Invested in $NBIS
First of all, let me make one thing clear: contrary to what you might think, I’m not an $NBIS bear. But then again, I’m not invested either… and for good reason.
Nebius positions itself as a holistic cloud platform with superior software technology that caters to AI-native start-ups and enterprise clients.
That in and of itself isn’t a problem, but it means they're directly competing against the largest hyperscalers in the world, who are also targeting that exact cohort with their own set of software solutions (Google Cloud, Microsoft, etc.).
Nonetheless, if $NBIS can successfully differentiate itself with its core offerings, it could gain some pricing power, which is the company’s best shot at one day becoming profitable.
The problem is, $NBIS is VERY far away from that…
Looking at the last quarterly filing, the company’s gross expenses + depreciation equaled ~110% of its revenues. In other words, these two cost categories exceeded the value of the underlying revenues ($249.2m vs. revenue of $227.7m).
To be fair, last quarter Nebius still used a 4 year depreciation schedule on GPUs, which is rather short and overstates depreciation.
Adjusting for a 5 year depreciation schedule (industry standard) leads us to $144.6m of depreciation. Then, adding gross expenses of $68.5m on top gets you to $213.1m, which equals 93.5% of revenues.
And keep in mind, this figure does NOT include the hundreds of millions in costs spent on SG&A, R&D, and financing (interest).
So what’s my point with this?
The problem is, these are STRUCTURAL costs, the kind that scale with revenue, meaning you can’t easily grow out of them through sheer scale.
My point is that $NBIS' pricing power is nowhere to be seen, at least not relative to its costs.
Now, most $NBIS investors would probably argue that we are still "early" and that pricing power will show up eventually.
My problem with that argument is that the company seems to be allocating a very large chunk of its pipeline towards servicing hyperscalers through bare metal offerings, the kind of “bulk” service that does NOT command significant pricing power.
That means, fundamentally speaking, $NBIS is likely very far away from actually becoming profitable.
And while right now everyone is focused on headline figures like ARR, the market’s patience will run out eventually... it ALWAYS does for every company.
One day, the market will demand to see real profits flow down to the bottom line, and I’m not sure if $NBIS is structurally positioned to deliver on that any time soon.
To make matters worse, investors can’t even model out the economics of these large hyperscaler deals, because management provides absolutely 0 information on anything except headline figures.
We don’t even know the CapEx associated with these deals, or at the very least, the number of GPUs they have to purchase to fulfill their end of the bargain.
Contrast that with a company like $IREN, which gives you all the necessary information to build an entire P&L and cash flow model over the full course of the contract length, which is exactly what I’ve done extensively for our subscribers on Substack.
I have a VERY good idea of how much actual post-tax net income $IREN is making in every year of their hyperscaler contract.
There are other reasons that further point in the same direction, but I won’t get into them right now.
If they fix their cost structure one day, I’m happy to reconsider my stance.
But as of today, their “black box” approach to publishing details on their largest deals makes them uninvestable for me.

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Let me explain why this $TMDX drop matters.
Price action matters because it represents investors’ willingness to buy, sell, or hold an asset. And at what price they'd do each.
A -10% move on above-average volume means more shares were exchanged with sellers accepting a lower price. They are eager to get out.
This might not be concerning in many cases; it starts to be when stocks break high-demand regions (support) that have acted for a long time as buying zones - more than a year for $TMDX W50.
That means, out of nowhere, those who bought around this region are rushing to get out. That is usually a signal that something has shifted.
This can happen for many reasons. It can be driven by algos misinterpreting news/data just like with the Q4-25 EPS “miss.” The news about a kidney competitor could also be a factor, combined with some fears about fuel prices which are BS - content below goes further into this.
Or it could happen for valid fundamental reasons, which we should hear about if that’s the case, or simply due to market mechanics.
You’ve heard me say many times that markets move first on liquidity, second on sentiment and third on fundamentals.
One of my $TMDX “bear” cases was the lack of demand or “attention” for the stock. If no one knows the name, no one will buy it, it’s that simple. $TMDX is starting to get some attention but it remains a small cap with limited coverage, not AI, and outside most investors’ radar.
No one knows, no one cares - and that means no one buys. Although today, the issue is that those who do know the stock are still selling it.
Those guys know that fuel isn’t a major issue - not more than for many other industries, know that flight data is volatile and still above average, and understand the opportunity.
We aren’t better informed.
We aren’t smarter.
So, seeing a stock with such strong tailwinds being sold, breaking key buying zones on large volume, while being an inexpensive defensive name is concerning.
It means many want to get out of that name.
And they have a reason to do so.
The $1M question is: which?
For me, a one-day shakeout without clear reasons won’t make me sell my shares. The thesis still holds, and even if I value price action, I also value patience and clarity. I’ll let the market react for a few days before making any decisions. This could very well be another algo-driven move that gets bought back tomorrow.
That said, I will follow my system. I don’t marry stocks. It would hurt to sell shares of such an amazing company but I will not hold weakness.
Let’s see how the next few days play out, whether we get news, whether the stock continues to drift or is bought back. But closing my eyes and screaming “buy the dip” simply isn’t how I invest.
It's important to keep our mind open to what's coming. It might be nothing, it might be something.
I've seen this too many times to know that I can be wrong. And that can be costly.
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Some content to go through:
Kidney competitor.
x.com/WealthyReading…
Fuel price isn't an issue.
x.com/WealthyReading…
Why price action matters.
x.com/WealthyReading…
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Joe Kent, live on TCN at 6:00 pm EST tonight.
Joe Kent@joekent16jan19
After much reflection, I have decided to resign from my position as Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, effective today. I cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby. It has been an honor serving under @POTUS and @DNIGabbard and leading the professionals at NCTC. May God bless America.
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@mathlonning Selling this one will be one of the happiest days in my life....
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James Zark retweetledi

@jonnajarian No kidding. Wild how the media is rooting against the USA. Sad
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we appreciate your reporting Sully, given the pressure from media to not say anything positive must be enormous
Brian Sullivan@SullyCNBC
A ship is going from Fujairah to China right now Fully loaded. Not a sign all is well but not a negative signal
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@mvcinvesting Congratulations on the recent win. You’d be more genuine if you didn’t have a position. Why? Wealth is created on public forums to get others to buy what you own while the owner sells. Just saying.
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My new position is $NRXS.
It’s already up >30% from my initial entry less than a month ago, but I still believe this could be a multibagger from here.
I intentionally kept a low profile on this one. With a sub-$100M market cap and limited liquidity, I wanted my paid subscribers to have time to research it properly before discussing it publicly.
I also met with the CEO while preparing my article and clarified several key questions. If anything, that made me even more confident in the thesis.
It’s been a while since I’ve been this excited about a microcap. In my view, the risk-reward is extremely compelling, especially now that several key milestones have been achieved, significantly de-risking the story.
SUMMARY OF THE THESIS:
- First FDA-cleared, non-invasive treatment for chronic stomach pain in children, with no competition
- After almost a decade of groundwork, the key bottleneck (reimbursement) is now largely solved → commercial inflection started in January 2026
- Very strong unit economics (90%+ gross margins) with only $10-11M in revenue needed to reach profitability
- $5B pediatric market with clear demand already in place just needs coverage + awareness to unlock at scale
- Manufacturing is not a constraint. The company can scale from low single-digit millions to $100M+ in revenue quickly with minimal capex
- Multiple near-term catalysts + long-term upside (adult market)
- Sub-$100M market cap vs. potential for $50-100M revenue with only 1-2% market penetration (can easily go a lot higher over time) = asymmetric upside
The thesis doesn’t rely on this at all, but in 2-3 years, this could become an M&A target at a MUCH higher valuation.
Full Deep Dive (paywall removed): ⬇️
mvcinvesting.substack.com/p/my-new-posit…
Not financial advice.

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