Cowboy Moth

what

@DustinGouker Truth machine did pretty good relatively speaking x.com/Chicago_NFL/st…

🚨Alysa Liu allegedly told reporters: “GPT-5.3 Instant still doesn’t have the big model smell of GPT-4.5. I’m looking forward to GPT-5.4 this week, but if it disappoints, I may have to switch to Claude.”

@canzhi @sprotzbettor @luanalopeslara Kalshi API changelog docs.kalshi.com/changelog

@CowboyMoth @sprotzbettor @luanalopeslara wheres this from

Bloomberg praises the “consumer protections” of the... gaming industry where companies like BetMGM have been accused of sending marketing emails to entice 14-year-olds. Every gambling operator limits winners while preying on losers, their KPI is simple: make customers lose more. Meanwhile Kalshi welcomes winners: has nationwide self-limits, self-exclusion, responsible trading tools - and no house targeting consumer losses. Bloomberg you're one of the must trusted source of news that I read, please do better research.

@sprotzbettor @luanalopeslara pretty sure these are gone now right

@luanalopeslara you should probably remove transparent user IDs from the RFQ mechanism if you want "winners welcome" to be an honest reflection of the situation Luana

I am about to unveil an app where ppl can enter their big boards (2011-2022) and analytically have them graded. As well as submit big boards between 2021 and 2025 for the official consensus (provided they also submit proof board was published prior to draft date of w/e year)

@mikegrib8 Love it

@MappingFL Do you think there is a place for prediction markets as info tools without the promotion to the average uninformed young person we see now?

The market was at 90% Talarico before the polls closed, which was an objectively stupid position (even as I firmly wanted Talarico to win) Prediction markets are a hive of gambling addicts and should never be taken seriously or treated with respect I will die on this hill

@LoganR2WH Will give it a listen! ty

@CowboyMoth So that's how I get the odds of winning for each candidate. Explaining the forecast in a few tweets is tough, but I'll try to do a deeper dive in a thread sometime soon. If you're really into it, I go deep into explaining it on this podcast open.spotify.com/episode/2h1oNu…

Here's my final projection for the Texas Democratic Primary. Projection: Talarico 52.3%, Crockett 46.6%, Chance to Win: Talarico 62.4%, Crocket 30.6% Goes to a Runoff: 7.1% Chance

@GeoffZochodne Either they open up their API and allow independent market makers to undercut their pricing, or this is really just a sportsbook by another name.

So the DraftKings "Super App" may have different plumbing in California (where sports betting is not yet legal) compared to New York (where online sports betting is legal and DK is licensed), but the UX will be basically identical. Difference is "predictions" in CA and OSB in NY.

@MattZeitlin If markets were open 24/7 so there was never a time you could attack when futures were closed:

My predictions for State of the Union: Trump is going to declare a state of national emergency, invoke the insurrection act, and strike Iran and while streaming it from the chamber

@CSP_Trading no KT rep smh

Angry at Kalshi but cant do anything about it? Now you can! Throw eggs at Real Kalshi employees on Kalshi.gay Using openclaw on my mac mini to scrape linkedin every 30 seconds looking for any new kalshi employees, scraping their faces, and importing them

@Nostroah @TIME Super interesting dynamic where as an mm you have to consider how much you charge for the extra adverse selection that comes with the reward. If there’s no way to distinguish the user sponsored markets, users may also start disguising their amounts to look like the exchange.

I wonder if people who have an edge in certain markets (or insider information) will sponsor liquidity so that they can get more size down. Imagine an insider at @TIME getting down a lot of size on the person of the year market because they sponsored market rewards.

@lippredicts lip you gotta start sizing up

I love it when the money is free

@Nostroah @Kalshi @KalshiTrade Very true but interesting that the market correctly identified that Wildflower was the right benefactor when Golden started to fall throughout the day. Could of course be that voters got to talking, but more likely imo that the sharp flow held on to their beliefs until the end

Some traders have noticed an inefficiency in prediction markets. The “Song of the Year” Grammy award has never been given to the favorite. Here is how the last few years have played out! 2026: $0.03 2025: $0.11 2024: $0.35 2023: $0.01 2022: $0.12 This information should definitely be taken into account when trading the “Song of the Year” event in the future. Before you get any ideas, remember this quote from Howard Marks. "Investors must appreciate that, while there is a pattern to events, no pattern is perpetual."

@eightyhi @Kalshi I am a vendor who just ordered 1 million souvenir "heads" coins I plan to sell to rabid NFL fans. I need to hedge this risk or my life savings could go up in smoke

I am genuinely proud of @Kalshi for not listing this market, and not going down the path of markets based on "synthetic" risk. Meaning, markets that are purely luck based, like coin tosses, roulette, slots. The market would certainly be successful, drive some growth, and make a great chunk of change for any exchange. Leaving that money on the table is the right thing to do here.

“Making a living betting on prediction markets just might be one of those era-defining occupations — like being a Wall Street trader in the 1980s, a dot-com founder in the 1990s or an influencer in the 2010s.” Thank you @nytimes for writing about the real force behind prediction markets: the traders.