Mike Harris

I am houred that @RUSI_org is drawing attention to my idea that may move the needle away from perpetual conflict in the Middle East. As I teach my students re the formation of the European Coal and Steel Community, leadership and the alignment of interests can change the world.

Donald Trump says US could ‘take the oil in Iran’ ft.com/content/3bd9fb… via @ft real risk Trump's grand vision will start a proxy war with China in Iran.

Either the justification was something different, or the prosecutors of this war are are negligently naive. 2/2

I am a fan of logic. If the justification of war was a fear that Iran would use ballistic missles and nuclear to threaten the world, it is preplexing that those who feared such reckless behavior from Iran did not imagine that they would be wanting and willing to close Hormuz 1/2

every country being asked to help open up traffic in the Straight of Hormuz should make this clear statement: "We are sending resources to the region to faciliate the flow of energy through Hormuz. As soon as the attacks on Iran stop, we will then activate those resources"

youtube.com/watch?v=MCAbN1… In October 2024 I was interviewed by @cnbcKaren of @CNBC. I argued Iran's excessive response to Israel's attack on its Embassy in Syria meant geopolitical risk is generationally high. I also noted that Israel's focus on security over peace is a problem

Turkiye's January Inflation was an Historic Outlier open.substack.com/pub/cribstones…

Why Turkiye's Economy needs Democracy open.substack.com/pub/cribstones…

negotiations, the Iranian regime's negotiatig power is in making Trump regret he bragged about $2 gas and the value of 401ks in his State of the Union.

importantly disruption to the global economy. A regime facing existential threat does not worry about the negative consequences to Iran's economy from sustainably closing the straight of Hormuz and attacking global commerce. Unless the US and Israel offer a palatable path to...

I'm guessing Iran's regime has something the US & Israel have already maxed out on...leverage. If you start by killing the leader with the goal of a regime collapse, you remove space for negotiation. With regime risk elevated, the bias tilts towards reward with less regard for...

feels worth a repost

An earlier mention of "AI Recession", and a middle ground between @Citrini7 and @ARKInvest. linkedin.com/posts/cribston…

Thanks to Scotland's @ScotNational for publishing my argument that UK should halt visa-free travel for Israelis until settlement expansion ends. I appreciate there will be sincere disagreement, but I do hope those that read it find it a sincere proposal thenational.scot/politics/25870…

@ojblanchard1 Nice to see he's a better Statesman than Central Bank Govenor. He and his team did nothing to end Britain's reliance on two year fixed rate mortgages (because they saw no systemic risk). A free ride for households with QE and a huge cause of the UK's stagflation as rates rose.

A very important speech by Mark Carney (17 minutes well spent if you have the time to listen). Open eyed, with a concrete, positive, strategy for what he calls the "middle countries" in a world of hegemons. Feels good to hear.

Seriously can't wait for the only important news story today...the Supreme Court Case for Fed Governor Lisa Cook

@JonathanDLamb don't disagree, but but water under bridge. Just hoping they'll take the right approach to defending UK interests today

@CribstoneMacro Since when has Starmer ever defended UK interests? Chagos is a massive act of self harm. He's wrong about any things, but not about this.

Not sure why Starmer gave Trump speech. Better off saying US President says so many unserious things, it's unserious to respond. Should irresponsible proposals materalize, don't worry. We are ready to leverage everything in our toolkit to defend UK interests. Ditto EU leaders

@tparsi Carney a good communicator and like's the center stage, but not great when it comes to actions. He knew the UK exposure to 2 year mortgage fixes would cause pain when QE ended, instead he left households vulerable and threw all the blame for UK stagflation on Brexit.

WOW!!! Never thought we would hear this level of honesty from a Western leader, and certainly not Canada, given the direction of Canada in the past 25 years. Canada's shift towards multialignment is quite clear - and this level of honesty from Carney on Western "fiction" about the old order will be warmly welcomed in much of the Global South: "We knew that the story about the rules-based order was partially false... We knew that international law applied with varying rigour depending on the identity of the accused and the victim. This fiction was useful [because of the goods provided by American hegemony]... So we placed the sign in the window. We participated in the rituals. And we largely avoided calling out the gaps between rhetoric and reality. This bargain no longer works. Let me be direct. We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition... You cannot live within the lie of mutual benefit through integration when integration becomes the source of your subordination."

Oral arguments from the Supreme Cout re Fed Gov Lisa Cook starting today. Might be bigger for markets than Greenland. Read my thoughts in @barronsonline : The Fed Isn’t Out of the Woods Yet. A Bigger Test Is Coming. barrons.com/articles/fed-i…