Criostasi

@hungryhorsepokr Checking turn doesn't guarantee you will reach the showdown. Suppose a J on the river and b150 from your opponent...

one of the biggest mistakes i see players make is “monkey betting” with their hand on the turn. they have a showdown value type hand (think 88 on q743). i see so many players bet here because they’re: - trying to charge draws - want to avoid facing a bet on the river - trying to get better hands to fold - trying to get worse hands to call all of these ^^ reasons to bet are based on fear, instead of maximizing ev. when we have a showdown value hand, our goal is to *GET TO SHOWDOWN*.

@VanjaPoker If we always bet b33 (not tange except in spot 1) do we lose a lot of EV? Personally I like it.

90% of poker players have no idea about flop heuristics. Here are some for SRP BTN vs BB: 1. Range bet small: - A92, K83, JJ3 2. Bet small, not range: - A53, 643, mono boards 3. Large size: - 853, 954, T86 4. Overbet: - AK2, Q97 FD, T92 Vs fish can do whatever hand prefers.

@PokerJermz You are focusing your attention on non important things. Is bb a weak player? Open button wider? Is it a good aggro reg? Better to open a bit tighter. Really it doesn't matter if you open 43s on the button every time or fold it every time.

I used to think almost any suited hand was good enough on the button. Then you look at the sim and realize some of these opens are just torching money. Even 43s and 64s are folds here. Where do you draw the line?

As I said in yesterday's #gold cycle map, “If we can see a swing-low emerge, that low can be used as a protective stop for any long positions.” Today's candle should give us that swing-low on $GDX. A day 40 low is long, but certainly not unheard of. A more conservative entry can wait for price to close back above the MA10. Please like/RT.

@FrankieCPoker What about the squeeze size when you are OOP against the raiser and the caller? Isn't it a lot bigger than what people usually do?

One of the most common, undetected errors in poker is overcalling too wide against multiple callers. The mistake is based on a sound human heuristic that all poker players know; increase pot odds = more calling. While this is true, the greater offsetting force is an increase in range domination. Meaning hands like QTo or A9o now have to deal with an increase in better kicker combos like KQ, AQ, AT, etc. The blinds have the additional issue of greater positional disadvantage. A weird hand class that proves this point further is increases in calling hands like 45o because they can make many unique strong hands and when they make 1 pair it is not challenged as often by better kickers as opponents' ranges lack hands like Q5, J4, etc. Of course, multiway pots tend to have recs involved which may allow higher calling than theory but very unlikely to be wider than if heads-up. The gravity of the aforementioned headwinds will still weighs heavy.

@wazzo11 But here did t you get called and lost?

River bluff raises are massively misunderstood In the wrong spots they can torch money, because population actually overdefends in a lot of nodes But if you’re precise, they can become a huge source of exploit EV Discontinued aggression lines are some of the best spots to attack because population massively overfolds once they stop betting turns and then re-open on rivers And if you combine that with strong combo selection, the EV becomes huge To understand why, check out this hand: Here we bluff raise river after facing a pot size bet Looks scary at first glance, but remember that population doesn't slow play value or equity often enough So here villain lacks: Boats Trips or QT that checked turn Most players don’t protect their checking ranges nearly enough after flop c-bet You can combine this with premium combo selection by: Blocking rivered value Blocking premium bluff catchers Unblocking folds That’s where river bluff raises start printing

@wazzo11 Depends on the fish of course, but usually yes. Instead I overcall fish medium size bets in discontinuous lines. I don't have an MDA database but for my experience it's an overbluffed line (by fish).

@Criostasi Yeh fish tend to underbluff when they get really big, it’s a good adjustment

1/ Most players are bluff catching completely backwards They obsess over blockers, removal effects, and how high up they are in range while ignoring the only thing that matters first: Is villain bluffing enough? Below is a complete guide to bluff catching (Thread)

@FrankieCPoker Does this graphs relate to 100bb deep cash games? Does it change when 200bb deep or more? How huge can be a 4bet and we can call even if OOP?

You should never be calling against large 4-bets when out of position. When a raise or bet size becomes large enough, we will always reach what I refer to as the calling horizon— the point where calling no longer becomes a viable strategy. Medium-strength hands like JTs lose the ability to realize their equity post-flop and aren't strong enough to shove; therefore, they are forced into the fold bucket. The exact opposite happens with stronger hands. As the 4-bet sizing increases, their incentive to win the pot immediately grows, leading them to prefer a shove only strategy (thus increasing their equity realization). This concept doesn't just relate to pre-flop 4-bets; same concepts applies to 3-bet pots and SRPs.

@wazzo11 Basically I never bluff catch a non pro non maniac player for huge bets. You can't go wrong. Sometimes you get bluffed of course, but most of the time you save a lot of money.

@wazzo11 I think knowing which are the most overbluffed and underbluffed lines can be helpful. Then you adapt on the specific players. Personally I play live 2/5 and 5/10 (stakes available at my casino) and if you exclude pros and maniacs big bets are always underbluffed

@NautilusCap This is what everyone is looking at...

A few requests for an SPX overlay to early 2020.

@raiseyouredge Does it apply to cash games also?

Another good poker tip: The bigger your edge in poker, the fewer marginal spots you should take. Here’s why: The core concept of GTO is to neutralize your opponent's EV when neither player has an edge. If you're frequently taking marginal spots in tournament poker, because they're solver approved, you simply do not believe you have an edge. Solvers don't account for your edge. Solvers don't account for future game. If solvers could think about future game, they would likely advise against taking many of the marginal spots you do.

@nataninvesting Already in my portfolio... What about MSFT instead? I would like to know your opinion.

$META growing 30%+ and trading at 18x fwd PE is just ridiculous imo Big opportunity? 👀

@nataninvesting What I have noticed is that when the market goes up usually good stock picking does better, when the market goes down anyway, who did better during the up move, now does worse. Rarely I see someone lose less than the market.

It wasn’t easy to lose almost 20% since the beginning of the year, but I managed it. Change strategy? Absolutely not. I’m still outperforming the index over the long term, and I’m convinced that the stocks I own are worth much more than their current prices. No FOMO.

@ColinSt30481392 So February was the low and it's going higher now?

$BTCUSD has likely printed a HCH on day 38 and now commenced its decline into a HCL to create the pivot for the daily inclining trend line. With a HCH on day 38 it almost guarantees a right translated daily cycle 2

@nataninvesting Some toutghs about the recent TMDX drop? Hold, sell, buy more?

𝘼𝙋𝙍𝙄𝙇 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 𝙋𝙊𝙍𝙏𝙁𝙊𝙇𝙄𝙊 𝙐𝙋𝘿𝘼𝙏𝙀 Natan YTD: -13.0% S&P500 YTD: +5.3% TOTAL RETURNS (Jan 2022) Natan's portfolio: +94.2% *Benchmark: +41.6% S&P500: +60.7% My positions: $TMDX $PDD $HOOD $META $BABA $PYPL $PRCT $WIZZ $REGN $MRNA $CRSP TRANSACTIONS: 🟢 Increased positions: $PRCT 🔴 Sold positions: ALLOCATION BY COUNTRY: 🇺🇸 US: 68% 🇨🇳 China: 26% 🇭🇺 Hungary: 5% 🇨🇭 Switzerland: 1% Follow me: @nataninvesting - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - * 𝘉𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘩𝘮𝘢𝘳𝘬 𝘪𝘴 𝘤𝘢𝘭𝘤𝘶𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘢𝘴 𝘢 𝘸𝘦𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘢𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘨𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘧𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘰𝘸𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘳𝘦𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘯𝘴: - 70% 𝘕𝘢𝘴𝘥𝘢𝘲 𝘊𝘰𝘮𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘪𝘵𝘦 𝘌𝘛𝘍 - 30% 𝘊𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘢 𝘐𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘯𝘦𝘵 𝘒𝘞𝘌𝘉 𝘌𝘛𝘍 ** 𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘦𝘥𝘶𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘶𝘳𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺. 𝘐'𝘮 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘴𝘰𝘳 and all the 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘥 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦.

@DonAlt Did you buy some?

$BTC weekly Support 78k Resistance 86k The more I check the charts the better BTC looks Now could we get fucked over by some geopolitical dumb shit? Of course But the technicals are quite alright to me

@wazzo11 What about the super exploitative strategy of donking small on the turn? Most often then not when you check turn, they check back. When you bet small they usually don't fold showdown value hands and sometimes raise the donk as a bluff.

Most regs don’t know when to slow play rivers vs fish They see a strong hand and immediately think: “How do I get value?” But sometimes the highest EV play is checking We 3bet a fish SB vs BTN and get the dream QQ8r flop We c-bet small to induce an overdefend (both raises and calls) and this time the fish raises This is mostly air and mergy hands, so instead of 3betting flop we just call and keep everything in Turn comes a 9 and we check, he checks back River pairs the 9 and most regs immediately go for value here But think about his range for a second: Air Low pocket pairs 8x Some 9x What do all of those hands want to do when checked to? Bet Fish are too wide pre, then raise too wide on flop so they get here with WAY too much air So instead of targeting his calling range, we target his betting range That’s the difference By visualising how your opponent’s range evolves throughout the hand, you can decide whether betting or checking extracts more EV Most players prioritise value EV too much here and neglect the key mistake fish make They are too wide Would you check river as standard here?

@wazzo11 Very well played. 1) what is bbj EV? 2) it's not easy for 1010 to flop an overpair and stay overpair till the end. 4flush or overcard between turn and river and it's all another situation. And it happens way more than half the time...

This is how you print vs players who are way too wide pre Would you check-raise flop with this hand? And more importantly are you actually calling turn/river after you do? Reads: – Villain way too wide pre (AJo, KQo, random offsuit junk) – C-bets too frequently (likely range betting) So when we check-raise flop, this hand is miles ahead of his range Now here’s where people mess up 👇 When he doesn’t fast play, his range gets flooded with offsuit hands + random club floats Turn is close, but vs this player type (spewy), check-call > bet River bricks. He bets ~80% pot. That means he is allowed ~30% bluffs. Let’s sanity check it: Value: – JJ+ ≈ 8 combos – Flushes ≈ 9 combos – 99 ≈ 3 combos Total: 20 value combos So he gets ~6 bluffs Now look at his range… All those random one-club hands? AJo, KQo, etc? You’re easily getting 20+ bluff combos This is not close. It’s a print call. There are many creative ways to manipulate a wide preflop range, can you think of any others?

@GoldnGuitars Point C late this year?

Zooming out to #BTC monthly, we have our targets for the bottoming zone - months 47-48. If you've been tracking my $SPX chart, this potential EW count on Bitcoin could fit with a large-scale market top in 2032. Within this framework the last few 4 year cycles were part of an ending-diagonal for major wave 3 and we're currently in a B-wave bounce of a major wave 4 decline. To follow would be a major 5th wave, which I'm estimating to top in the early 2030s. Food for thought.