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Hidden OB Mastery
In response to MT's recent LONG on BTC, look closely at this 23H Hidden OB. It already had 6 earlier interactions. Why did MT (most likely) wait until this exact moment to enter a trade?
Before reading further, please note that this post intentionally simplifies the scenario by not discussing many other important variables. Readers should understand how to effectively use posts like this in conjunction with their broader analysis.😘
You might ask yourself why not enter sooner when there were already multiple earlier chances (3x Long or 3x Short) at these price points:
The simple reason for this patience is that there wasn't a clear closure above a Swing High (SH) or below a Swing Low (SL). Without this closure, the market hadn't shown a clear direction yet. Big players and institutions always wait for clear direction first, then a pullback into a key level, to fill their positions with the highest possible chance of success. Moneytaur consistently emphasizes the importance of waiting for clear confirmation before entering any trade.
In this specific situation, if you had opened a position every time the price reached this 23H Hidden OB, you would have lost 6 times, and only the 7th time would have been profitable —> resulting in a very poor risk/reward (R/R). Apart from this particular example, many traders (myself included) often see a key level and blindly open a Limit Order. However, if a level has already been ignored multiple times, there is no guarantee the next interaction will yield your desired outcome.
Here's the 12H chart, which Moneytaur often uses to reliably see where the market is headed after a closure above/below takes place. Notice how the 7th touch is after the 12H closed above first.
Now look at the 23H chart. You see the exact same situation: no clear closure above a Swing High or below a Swing Low. Every time the price reached this 23H Hidden OB without clear market structure/direction confirmation, big players did not react, making it very likely for the price to ignore this level as well.
This is one of several critical confirmation methods you can use to significantly increase your probability of success after identifying a strong liquidity level. Posts like this are typically created when I've recently discovered the importance of a particular method from Moneytaur. By clearly documenting it, I set it in stone for future reference, making it easy to track its validity and performance. In trading, nothing is 100% guaranteed, but striving to approach that ideal as closely as possible is the goal. Why settle for less?
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