Crypto Journey

🚨 Michael Burry („The Big Short”) pariază din nou împotriva AI — acțiunile NVIDIA scad. Acțiunile NVIDIA ($NVDA) au scăzut cu aproximativ -2%, la 202,83 USD în tranzacțiile pre-market de azi, după ce noile raportări SEC au arătat că Michael Burry, prin Scion Asset Management, a deschis o poziție put masivă de 187 milioane USD împotriva producătorului de cipuri. Detalii-cheie: -Scion deține și opțiuni put în valoare de 912 milioane USD pe Palantir ($PLTR); -Împreună, cele două poziții reprezintă aproximativ 80% din portofoliul raportat al fondului; -Nu este clar dacă aceste poziții mai sunt active în prezent, întrucât rapoartele 13F pot avea un decalaj de până la 45 de zile. Context: Burry este cunoscut pentru pariul său legendar împotriva pieței imobiliare în 2008 -a mai avertizat anterior asupra supraevaluării sectorului AI și a concentrării excesive în câteva companii „superstar”. Această nouă mișcare sugerează că vede un risc semnificativ de corecție în segmentul tech, dominat de Nvidia, Palantir și alte acțiuni AI. Pe scurt: Burry nu pariază împotriva inovației, ci împotriva supraevaluării și euforiei. Și, istoric, atunci când el „short-ează”, Wall Street ascultă. 🔔 Urmărește @cryptoaici pentru analize asupra marilor mișcări de portofoliu ale investitorilor legendari și impactul lor asupra acțiunilor și pieței AI.

Okay, guys. We need to talk. I'm sure you've seen all the posts about the spiking daily inflows into Overnight Repurchase Agreements (RPONTSYD) by now. You can check the data yourself here: fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RPONTSYD If you change the time setting from 1Y to MAX, you'll get a view back to 2000. I attached the image. As you can see, that's a significant spike. BUT: That's not an isolated, reliable crash signal. First and foremost, it's positive for equities and crypto in the short term. The Fed announced the end of QT on December 1, 2025, plus injecting liquidity into the financial system, which this spike represents. That's a signal for stress in the system. Not more, not less. But it also underlines my thesis of a crash in 2026, which I expect in 6–12 months from now. What do you need to watch/be aware of to exit before the crash but ride the bull as far as possible? The answer is simple: Credit spreads and VIX correlation. The credit spread tickers you can watch for a good view are: BAMLH0A0HYM2 and/or BAMLC0A4CBBB (see the attached charts). Both are early warning signals (they'll give you several months of headroom). If they spike (100+ basis points), you need to watch out. Have a look at pre-COVID, pre-GFC, and pre-Dot-Com Bubble. For now, we're very low in safe havens. Add a VIX spike as the correlating signal. In summary and your watchlist: Monitor Cadence: - Daily FRED checks for repos/VIX; weekly for spreads (they're monthly-ish but react fast). Thresholds: - Repo: Sustained >20B/month? Yellow intensifies. - Spreads: HY >400bp or BBB >200bp? Start partial exits (echoes your pre-crash precedents). - VIX: >25 with spread correlation? Full de-risk. It's the fear multiplier. Bonus Watches: - SOFR spikes (funding stress proxy) - falling bank reserves or corporate default rates ticking up - Layer in crypto-specifics like BTC funding rates if you're parabolic-hunting. My gameplan for now and 2026: 1. Enjoy the crypto bull market and the upcoming parabolic phase (yes, filthy bears, it will come). 2. Watch the above signals and other stress signals. Stay alert but levelheaded. 3. Exit markets fully as soon as exit criteria are met. 4. Spend some extra time in the gym to increase arm diameter while waiting for the buy signal. 5. As soon as markets crash and the media proclaims the end of the world again—and everybody is panicking, nobody wants to buy, and they call you an idiot for even playing with the idea of buying—start to DCA in. 6. Put every single cent into the markets as soon as the Fed announces emergency liquidity injections. 7. Post "told ya so" posts until everyone hates you while you enjoy riding the bull again. Conclusion / TL;DR: The current situation does NOT guarantee a crash. It's just a very early signal. Let's say the traffic light just switched from green to yellow and you need to watch out. The fun part? Equity and crypto markets do the same as most people when they see a yellow traffic light: They push down the gas pedal fully! ;)