₿IRB

Bitcoin is testing 200W SMA. What is it and why does everyone keep mentioning it? Let me explain. It is the average of every weekly close for the last 200 weeks - approximately 4 years. It's always rising because Bitcoin's price history is heavily skewed to the upside by parabolic bull runs. Since it has 4 years lag, it's not sensitive to cyclical bull or bear markets. That's why 2026 bear will only be reflected in 2030. So if your favourite influencer claims Bitcoin can't fall below 200-week trend because it's rising, they are wrong. And 4 years late. If you use 4-year lagged indicator for future predictions, you are basically stuck in previous cycle. Currently 200-week SMA is at 62,023. It can temporarily act as psychological support. But smart investors don't use it to time entries or exits. What is it telling us now? We're currently testing this area after breaking below it to near bear market lows. For anyone with 4-year investment horizon, it's a good buying opportunity when Bitcoin falls & stays below it. It typically marks depression phase of market cycle. We're not there yet. Which means depression is YET to come. Bottom line: prepare for further declines. Makes sense?

Zoom in carefully. Two arrows on this chart reveal the obvious: The 50SMA and 200SMA - both are falling steadily. But price is climbing locally. Now consider these: ⇝ 50SMA falling = medium-term bear. ⇝ 200SMA falling = long-term bear. ⇝ Bear market resistance 77,406 ⇝ Currently at 66k we're up ~12% from new lows. What does this mean in CMT terms? It's a classic bear-rally compression. Price moves up. Resistance comes down. They meet somewhere in the middle. In best case, consolidation. When falling moving averages are approached from below, they act as supply zones. Programmatic algos sell into them. Mean reversion expires there. Daily close above 73,500 with expansion would be the first piece of evidence the trend might be changing. Anything below that is rally inside a downtrend. Conclusion? Trend is your friend and the trend is downwards. Get ready soldier. More pain ahead.