Luke

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Luke

Luke

@Crypto__Luke

Investing for intellectual rigor and for the family

Katılım Ocak 2021
1.4K Takip Edilen74 Takipçiler
Luke
Luke@Crypto__Luke·
@PAHoyeck A true masterpiece coming from the master himself. Live his early works.
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Phil Hoyeck
Phil Hoyeck@PAHoyeck·
Welp, just finished reading Solaris for the first time. Pretty sure I'll ever be happy again.
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Luke
Luke@Crypto__Luke·
@panpalobar Today feels like rejection of 72. It could have closed above, but it did not.
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Palobar
Palobar@panpalobar·
#silver #preciousmetals PRICE: $72 You first heard it here. Numbers that really matter. $4649 (gold cash) is the number to watch now.
Palobar tweet media
Palobar@panpalobar

#silver #gold #preciousmetals Silver reached the $84 target (high of $83.97) and is now pulling back. This volatility was expected for many reasons (see prior posts). Most likely, a temporary high. If price holds >$72: silver is strong Support: $64-$67. Long-term: higher

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Luke
Luke@Crypto__Luke·
Spot on with respect to the DATA. And InPost does not have superior data access, does it? It does not k ow what is inside the parcela it fulfills.
TommyShelby@MgShelby

Kibicuję @RBrzoska od wielu lat bo historia sukcesu paczkomatów jest fascynująca i kiedyś skrzynki na paczki też brzmiały jak niepotrzebna innowacja a dzisiaj nie potrafimy korzystać z zakupów w internecie bez paczkomatów. Ale uczciwie czy: VON HALSKY (dziwna nazwa nawet trudna do przekazania komukolwiek i ciężka do zapamiętania) to przełom? AI Shopping to nie nowość. Google AI mode, Rufus, Perplexity wszyscy próbują a ChatGPT nawet wycofał się z agentowego checkoutu i wraca do samego "discovery". Co jest więc inne w InPost? Otóż największe przewagi to DANE. Posiadają coś czego Big Tech nie ma w Europie czyli zamkniętą pętlę: - dane co Polacy realnie kupują (miliony transakcji) - własny fulfillment - InPost Pay już działa - 10 milionów userów Nikt nie ma tej układanki w jednym systemie. Co będzie wyzwaniem? Sceptycyzm i tak jest uzasadniony wobec nawyków zakupowych. 2025 r. tylko 5% zakupów internetowych w Polsce zostało zrobionych z wykorzystaniem narzędzi opartych na sztucznej inteligencji. Czy chatbot z psem to zmieni? Who knows...:-)

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Luke
Luke@Crypto__Luke·
@MgShelby @RBrzoska Spot on with respect to the DATA. And InPost does not have superior data access, does it? It does not k ow what is inside the parcela it fulfills.
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TommyShelby
TommyShelby@MgShelby·
Kibicuję @RBrzoska od wielu lat bo historia sukcesu paczkomatów jest fascynująca i kiedyś skrzynki na paczki też brzmiały jak niepotrzebna innowacja a dzisiaj nie potrafimy korzystać z zakupów w internecie bez paczkomatów. Ale uczciwie czy: VON HALSKY (dziwna nazwa nawet trudna do przekazania komukolwiek i ciężka do zapamiętania) to przełom? AI Shopping to nie nowość. Google AI mode, Rufus, Perplexity wszyscy próbują a ChatGPT nawet wycofał się z agentowego checkoutu i wraca do samego "discovery". Co jest więc inne w InPost? Otóż największe przewagi to DANE. Posiadają coś czego Big Tech nie ma w Europie czyli zamkniętą pętlę: - dane co Polacy realnie kupują (miliony transakcji) - własny fulfillment - InPost Pay już działa - 10 milionów userów Nikt nie ma tej układanki w jednym systemie. Co będzie wyzwaniem? Sceptycyzm i tak jest uzasadniony wobec nawyków zakupowych. 2025 r. tylko 5% zakupów internetowych w Polsce zostało zrobionych z wykorzystaniem narzędzi opartych na sztucznej inteligencji. Czy chatbot z psem to zmieni? Who knows...:-)
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Luke
Luke@Crypto__Luke·
@levikov You put too many countries in the same basket. In some of these countries, I pay for talent more than in WE
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69kov
69kov@levikov·
Eastern Europe is the most exploitable talent arbitrage on the planet right now and almost nobody in the Western business world is paying attention because they're too busy overpaying for mid work from the Philippines and India… Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia, Poland, Ukraine, Croatia. Average salaries $500-1,000/month. But the talent coming out of these countries isn't $500/month talent. It's $5,000-8,000/month talent priced at a tenth of what you'd pay in the US because the local economy hasn't caught up to the skill level yet That gap is the exploit Every other "hire cheap overseas" conversation defaults to Southeast Asia or South Asia. And sure, the prices are low. But anyone who's actually tried to scale operations in those regions knows the pattern. Language barriers. Cultural disconnect. Equipment issues. Endless training loops. You spend more time managing output than you save in cost. The $4/hour rate sounds nice until you're on revision 14 and the work still isn't usable Eastern Europe skips all of that These countries have legitimate university systems. Strong STEM education. English fluency across the entire 18-30 demographic, sometimes better than native speakers in the US (not even joking). They grew up on the same internet, same memes, same cultural references. Zero cultural gap when working with Western businesses. You don't need to explain context. You don't need to translate intent. They just get it And they have real infrastructure. Laptops. Fast wifi. Proper software. Modern tools. You're not onboarding someone who needs you to walk them through basic setup. You're hiring someone who's already operating at a professional level but happens to live in a country where $1,000/month is a great salary The applications go way beyond content. Developers in Bucharest building full-stack apps for $1,500/month that would cost you $8-12k from a US agency. Designers in Belgrade producing brand assets at agency quality for $800/month. Sales closers in Sofia running calls in perfect English for $1,000/month plus commission. Media buyers in Warsaw managing $50k+/month ad accounts for $1,200/month. Copywriters, project managers, data analysts, customer support, operations managers. Every single role in your business can be filled from Eastern Europe at 80-90% cost reduction with zero quality drop The training speed is the real cheat code though. Hand someone in Bucharest a brief on Monday and you get back usable output by Wednesday. Not "needs 6 rounds of feedback" output. Actually usable, deploy-immediately output. The baseline competency is just different when the talent pool is educated, tech-native, and hungry It's common now for operators running lean businesses to have their entire team in Eastern Europe except themselves. 4-8 people. Total payroll $5-8k/month. Output equivalent to a $40-60k/month US team. The business runs 24/7 because the time zone overlap with the US is actually perfect for async work (btw it doesn't hurt that Eastern Europe has the baddest bitches on the planet. If you need on-camera talent for any kind of brand content targeting Western audiences, a girl in Sofia or Bucharest is visually indistinguishable from a girl in LA but costs a fraction. The talent pool for that specific use case is bottomless and nobody's tapped it properly yet) The freelance platforms are the worst place to find these people. The best ones are in local Facebook groups, Telegram channels, and Eastern European Twitter. You DM 50 people, 40 respond within hours because an $800/month retainer is life-changing money and they actually take pride in the work. The talent density is absurd once you know where to look
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Tomasz Rożek
Tomasz Rożek@RozekTom·
Podajcie proszę dalej. To nadchodzący film Fundacji Nauka. To lubię!, w którym podejmuję tematykę negatywnego wpływu social mediów i smartfonów na codzienne życie i psychikę dzieci i młodzieży. Poznajmy genezę tego złożonego zjawiska, opinie ekspertów oraz najnowsze badania naukowe, starające się je opisać i wyjaśnić. Jest w tym nadal mnóstwo niewiadomych ale już chyba nikt nie ma wątpliwości, że musimy podjąć jak najszybciej zdecydowane działania, by chronić młode pokolenie przed niezwykle groźnymi konsekwencjami nadużywania ryzykownych narzędzi i toksycznych treści. Premiera 5 marca na kanale YouTube Nauka. To lubię! Film powstaje dzięki wsparciu Fundacja LPP i objęty jest patronatem honorowym @CYFRA_GOV_PL
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Luke
Luke@Crypto__Luke·
@stocktavia @iggnacy True, agreed. Let’s see how he fares in the long run nonetheless. Wishing him all the best. The reach and impact of his team’s writing are impressive.
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Luke
Luke@Crypto__Luke·
@stocktavia @iggnacy Yeah, probably a good take here. Interestingly, Citrini revived thematic investing. An area that has not been historically super successful for ETFs
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Stocktavian August
Stocktavian August@stocktavia·
-> wiele osób zarządzajacych funduszami nie ma swojego zdania ani wiedzy o AI i towarzyszących jej zjawiskach. W wyprzedaży saasów czują sie zagubieni. Ich playbooki z ostatnich lat przestają działać -> citrini ze swoim produktem idealnie wpasował się w ostatni rok, pozycjonując się w branży na podobny poziomie jak SemiAnalysis - jako kosztowny produkt analityczny premium -> citrini zatrudnił do siebie analityków (Jukan, Zephyr), którzy wcześnie identyfikowali zjawiska takie jak memory crunch i jasno wskazywali na ich beneficjentów, jak hynix czy sandisk, przydając sobie wiarygodności oraz legitymacji -> jego blog subskrybują dziesiątki tysiecy osób. Jego wpływ na rynek widać było choćby po publikacji 26 plays na 2026, w zwyżkach takich wymienianych tam stocków jak amkr lub jmia -> herd mentality zarządzających funduszami nie jest niczym nowym ani właściwym naszym czasom, w szczególności wobec zjawisk nowych i potencjalnie ryzykownych dla wyniku -> kiedy zatem, biorąc to wszystko pod uwagę, citrini publikuje artykuł w którym wprost wskazuje potencjalnych przegranych, pozostaje zadać pytanie - cóż dziwnego w tym, że w pierwszym, defensywnym odruchu, są oni wyprzedawani?
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Luke
Luke@Crypto__Luke·
@panpalobar Would you mind commenting more since the price was all over the place after the key jan 22-26 dates? We literally were above, below and now in-between. If I were to stick to the dates and ignore the FED nominee noise, I say we closed higher and go higher…
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Palobar
Palobar@panpalobar·
#gold #cycles Key date 22-26 Jan Look at how the price is responding with precision. Do not confuse a bull market with skill.
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Luke
Luke@Crypto__Luke·
@krzysztofburdzy Jade is interesting. Professional structure: better behavior under stress, defined loss, probably way smaller margin requirement.
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KrzysztofBurdzy
KrzysztofBurdzy@krzysztofburdzy·
$OUST, bardzo ciekawa spółka z dobrymi perspektywami. Propozycja zagrania w dwóch wariantach, Put Ratio Spread, premia 162$, i Jade Lizard, premia 285$, termin 27 luty. W obu zagraniach w przypadku przypisania breakeven wychodzi lekko powyżej 20$ wiec minima z ostatnich miesięcy. To nie jest porada inwestycyjna.
KrzysztofBurdzy tweet mediaKrzysztofBurdzy tweet mediaKrzysztofBurdzy tweet mediaKrzysztofBurdzy tweet media
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Luke@Crypto__Luke·
@panpalobar Would you mind clarifying your logic behind being bullish on the USD? I dug out your earlier charts, but this part is the hardest for me to believe in your otherwise fantastic set of predictions that have come true. It does not quite align with high asset and PM prices. Thanks
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Palobar
Palobar@panpalobar·
#DXY #USD #fx #currencies For the past 6 months, the DXY has been trading within the price range of the last week of July. [So far], it has been unable to close outside of the above range. Most likely it will break to the downside. USD is preparing for the FALSE MOVE.
Palobar tweet media
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Luke
Luke@Crypto__Luke·
@ZeeContrarian1 USO Apr 17 butterfly - +1 72 call -2 75 call +1 78 call. Structured with a defined loss, tiny debit, set to reward a moderate move to mid 70s. Unlikely to be held to maturity
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Luke
Luke@Crypto__Luke·
@ZeeContrarian1 Pure long or combos? Trying to structure something using USO that is supposed to be the most liquid. Spreads are broad though and the liquidity is not impressive.
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Z@ZeeContrarian1·
Initiated a 5% portfolio position in crude oil via futures. I see no compelling fundamental reason for downside in the near term, while upside asymmetry is clear, especially given how sensitive prices are to Iran-related geopolitical headlines.
Z@ZeeContrarian1

Long crude oil? In the ancient tale, Samson is captured by the Philistines. Blinded, humiliated, paraded as a trophy, he understands one thing with absolute clarity: there is no escape. No redemption. No future in which he survives. So he makes a final decision. If he is going down, the temple is coming down with him. He braces himself between the pillars, pulls with everything he has left, and collapses the entire structure-killing his enemies, and himself, in a single irreversible act. History is full of Samson moments. When a regime realizes it is cornered, legitimacy gone, power slipping, and the end approaching, rational optimization often gives way to something darker: revenge, spite, legacy, or simply the refusal to lose alone. Iran today increasingly looks like a system that can see the pillars. Internal pressure. External isolation. Economic suffocation. Loss of regional control. A population that no longer believes. A regime that understands-not fears, the possibility of collapse. The question is not whether it wants stability. The question is whether, when faced with its own end, it chooses survival… or spectacle. If the regime concludes that it cannot rule, will it still choose to restrain itself? Or will it pull on the pillars of the Middle East, shipping lanes, oil infrastructure, proxy wars, regional chaos and bring the whole structure down with it? Samson didn’t act out of strategy. He acted out of inevitability. And markets, like history, have a habit of underpricing inevitability. Hence: long crude oil.

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Luke
Luke@Crypto__Luke·
@steve2bacon A tweet we needed and we did not deserve
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steve2bacon, CMT
steve2bacon, CMT@steve2bacon·
what buying the dip feels like
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Luke
Luke@Crypto__Luke·
@DompabloMd I see three points. Someone has to pay for the increased shipping costs, and the hike is significant. For the consumer, it kills the price advantage of online. For the company, it compresses profitability. Overall, this setup favors brick and mortar
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MD_DomPablo
MD_DomPablo@DompabloMd·
@Crypto__Luke You see the bottom at 35....or what should the warning be about? Could you please elaborate😅
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MD_DomPablo
MD_DomPablo@DompabloMd·
$RDC Redcare Phramacy update: (it sucks 🥲) - FY SALES €2.9B VS. EST. €2.98B - Q4 SALES +18%, FY SALES +24% - ACTIVE CUSTOMERS REACHED 13.9M, +1.4M Y/Y - RX SALES IN GERMANY +60% IN Q4 AND +98% FOR FULL YEAR - NON-RX SALES +9% Y/Y IN Q4 & +15% FY 2025 Price back under TL:
MD_DomPablo tweet media
MD_DomPablo@DompabloMd

$RDC Redcare Phramacy: If you have some € and nothing to buy in EU, I give you $RDC breaking out from a year long falling wedge. From current price pint to 90-100 zone, it is +25-37% and to 130-140 zone 80-95%. Do as you wish with that info.... 😉

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Luke
Luke@Crypto__Luke·
@ZeeContrarian1 I tend to agree. He clearly optimized for Friday’s markets, softened the tone, and will deal with Iran over the weekend. That is how sensitive he is to market stress.
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