Cyrus de Weck 🇨🇭 🇮🇷

Companies that need private credit to offload balance sheet risk may find their PNL is not as sustainable as thought.

@MarkChangizi Conservative.

Need a name for those who are - not Woke Left - not Woke Right - anti-Islamist - aggressive to bullies - not anti-Semitic - not “I’m not anti-Jew I’m anti-[BS here]” - for free speech - for civil liberties - against “balancing” civil liberties - for free markets - for cost benefit analyses - for tight immigration - against isolationism - contemptuous of international law - against foreign dictatorships - “America First,” not “Israel Last” - love Iranians - “Free Iran” but not “Free Palestine” - appreciative that strength brings peace - want Cuba free Suggestions?

@hahauenstein Seems sensible. If you constantly disregard the law you may not be allowed to rely on it

Germany’s foreign minister says a regime like Iran cannot invoke international law. Turns out for Germany, international law isn’t universal - it’s pick-and-choose.

@felixprehn @grok can you post a link to the paper that this post refers to?

Private equity firms bought 500 hospitals. Death rates in their emergency rooms went up 13%. They fired 12% of the staff. Then they paid themselves billions in dividends. A Harvard study just confirmed what doctors already knew: people are dying so investors can hit quarterly targets. Exactly what happens. A PE firm buys a hospital using debt. The debt gets placed on the hospital's balance sheet, not the firm's. Now the hospital owes hundreds of millions it never borrowed. To service that debt, the hospital cuts costs. Costs mean nurses. The numbers from the Harvard/University of Chicago study are horrifying. After PE acquisition, emergency department salary spending dropped 18.2%. ICU salary spending dropped 15.9%. Hospital-wide employees were cut 11.6%. Emergency department deaths rose 13%, seven additional deaths per 10,000 visits. A separate study found patients undergoing surgery at PE-acquired hospitals had 17% higher odds of dying within 90 days. Steward Health Care, owned by Cerberus Capital, filed bankruptcy with $9 billion in debt after closing hospitals across Massachusetts. The CEO lived on a $40 million yacht while emergency rooms went dark. Eight hospitals serving 2 million people nearly disappeared because a PE fund extracted more cash than the system could survive. The private equity industry has poured over $1 trillion into healthcare. They operate a quarter of ERs nationwide. This isn't going away. The investing angle nobody talks about. Non-PE hospital operators like HCA Healthcare (HCA) and Tenet (THC) are the direct beneficiaries. Every time a PE hospital closes or deteriorates, patients flow to the nearest competitor. HCA has returned 1,200% since 2011. Patient volume from PE closures is a structural tailwind nobody's pricing in. Medical staffing firms (AMN Healthcare, Cross Country) charge premium rates specifically because PE hospitals cut staff. The staffing shortage IS the business model for these companies. The disruption play: outpatient surgical centers (SCA Health, now part of UnitedHealth) are pulling profitable procedures out of hospitals entirely. PE-owned hospitals lose their highest-margin surgeries to outpatient, and the death spiral accelerates. Pull up tradevision and monitor healthcare M&A alerts, hospital closure filings, and patient volume migration data. When a PE-owned hospital announces "restructuring," the patient volume shift to competitors like HCA starts within 30 days. That 30-day window is when the competitor's earnings revisions haven't updated yet. Free to try. (a private equity firm bought your local hospital. borrowed $500 million in the hospital's name. fired 12% of the nurses. emergency room deaths rose 13%. then they paid themselves dividends. nobody went to prison. they're currently buying another hospital.)

@rexsalisbury @grok what is the source of this graph?

VC IRR decay for 2017 and 2018 has been bad. And this was before the SaaSpocalypse. IRRs driven by big positions held at last round valuations. What would they look like at true fmv?

@recouso Well. We are part of Schengen. Sort of. When members don’t police borders in acceptable manner this is the appropriate solution. Many will probably follow. As I stated at the time Spains decision would likely lead to a devaluation of open borders within Europe. So we see now.

@brenaybrena I find discussing stock prices unseemly so shortly after news of dead suppliers has emerged. Some things are more important in life, namely life itself.

Me pregunto @CyrusdeWeck qué precio objetivo darías tú ahora a Grifols, no en su momento no, ahora, tras la serie de resultados desde cierre de 2024 hasta hoy, atendiendo a las mejoras de rating y a todas las noticias positivas consecutivas. Imagina si crees, como #AMG q es 20€

Los colectivos de accionistas con dimensión mediática, como #AMG, tienen legitimidad y pueden ser claves en la defensa de #Grifols y en generar confianza en inversores y mercado. AMG confía en una reacción y hemos denunciado ante #CNMV para q actúe. cincodias.elpais.com/companias/2026…

Good article on wide spread questioning of adjusted EBITDA as a proper input for leverage analysis. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/ac… Adjusted EBITDA and the masking of leverage

BREAKING 🔴 The Wall Street Journal: The information and locations of the Basij and Iranian security forces' roadblocks that were attacked tonight in Iran reached the Israeli security system from Iranian citizens.

HUGE NEWS An EU committee just adopted much stricter deportation regulations for Europe. All right-wing groups voted for it. Will we begin to see remigration?

BREAKING: Switzerland announces it will shut its embassy in Iran.

This would be excellent. Reduces economic nationalism that has been a cost to all companies and investors at the benefit of the favoured few. A true single market would be the next step to deepen capital base for the post deserving companies.

I would like to thank @netanyahu for his great gift to the people of Iran tonight.

I have liked your tweets on up days and down days. How you attribute knowledge of my intent and mental state from me simply liking tweets is beyond my comprehension. I take no pleasure in others’ misfortune. Your personal knowledge of me is non existent. Please keep your statements about me personally in line with your knowledge. It doesn’t reflect well on you. I have shown you the same courtesy. Have a great day and please keep it factual.

Parece q a @CyrusdeWeck le divierten los sucesivos ataques de los short Sellers. Es evidente q no es bueno alegrarse del mal ajeno. En #AMG no entendemos q la banca de inversión española no reaccione Veremos cómo acaba y si disfrutas tú o vence la verdad. #Grifols no es #Gowex

Para #AMG es vital q la #CNMV tome medidas ya!!! @CNMV_MEDIOS no puede permitir tras el estudio y auditoría de #Grifols y con la información q tiene q el precio se manipule y si es obvio debe actuar como ya hizo contra #Gotham y #GIP @CyrusdeWeck @fiscal_es @PoderJudicialEs

@IranMediaNow You legalised pedophilia. Glass houses and stones.

@TousiTVOfficial Thank you!

🇬🇧 IRGC’s Al-Quds Day march in London has been banned by Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood

@C_S_Skeptic I can somewhat respect that view. In which case he’s the world’s greatest VC with a ridiculously high hit rate.

THIS is what Musk does, in six bulletproof points.

@IsraeliPM They need arms and coordination. SOE in ww2 by the Brits is the template.

Your dreams will become a reality. When the time is right, and that time is fast approaching, we will pass the torch to you. Be ready to seize the moment!

People of Iran, We are waging a historic war for liberty. This is a once in a lifetime opportunity for you to remove the Ayatollah regime and gain your freedom. Together with the United States, we are hitting the Tyrants of Teheran harder than ever.

The more of this, the better.