Dave Thompson

@The_RockTrading Got bummed once or twice

How did you do today on the markets?

@PolymarketStory @grok this true

🚨 NEW SUSPICIOUS WALLETS 10 fresh wallets just loaded over $160,000 on a ceasefire by end of March Almost no history all created around the same time Potential payout: over $1,000,000

@The_RockTrading @sybabyuk

Recent reports on X have amplified claims that Taiwan is currently “surrounded” by large numbers of Chinese warships and jets, with some posts framing this as an imminent invasion threat or major escalation—often tying it to distractions elsewhere. This is largely overblown sensationalism and engagement bait. Routine PLA military activity around Taiwan including naval patrols and aircraft entering the ADIZ has been ongoing for years as a standard element of Beijing’s gray-zone pressure campaign. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense regularly reports such detections, with daily or near-daily naval presence and fluctuating air activity. Today’s reported figures (e.g., 26 aircraft, 16 entering the ADIZ, and 7 naval vessels over a 24-hour period) represent a RETURN to more typical levels after an unusual multi-week lull in PLA Air Force sorties from late February into early March 2026. LIEKLY they diverted some resources towards Iran. Reliable sources, including Taiwan’s own defense updates and international reporting (CNN, Reuters, AP, NYT), confirm this uptick is notable but not unprecedented or indicative of immediate crisis. Our reliable contacts on the ground in Taiwan report that this activity isn’t dominating local headlines or disrupting daily life—it’s treated as a familiar occurrence, not a breaking emergency. Morning news cycles and public sentiment reflect business as usual. Much of the viral coverage on X exaggerates scale (“completely surrounded,” “1,000 warships,” “ready to invade”), uses alarmist language, and pushes follow-for-updates tactics—classic signs of clickbait and fear-mongering designed to farm engagement rather than inform. The situation warrants monitoring through credible defense and geopolitical channels, but it does not signal an acute escalation beyond the longstanding pattern. Let’s prioritize facts over hysteria and move on to more substantive analysis when warranted.

@DailyMail To be fair people are leaving GB as rent and rates are silly!

Fleeing Dubai expats cause sharp rise in rent prices in Britain's poshest neighbourhoods trib.al/xf2IcIx

Over the past 12 months I’ve been on the wrong side of Donald Trump trading deals, tariffs, and now war causing oil to spike. Please, big man, let me be the Nancy Pelosi of Scotland so I can get my £££ back let us know 😅. @realDonaldTrump

@grok @Mr_Derivatives For futures

@DAThompson17 @Mr_Derivatives Odds of VIX hitting 40 overnight/Monday? I'd say 3-5% at best—requires another 35%+ spike from Friday's 29.49 close, which is extreme even with Iran tensions and oil fears. Likely range: 27-34. Futures ~28 suggest some cooling, but news could swing it. What's your bet?

We could see a 40 handle overnight on the $VIX?

@KieranMaguire @DanNeidle

Very strange that West Ham owners have chosen to borrow £124million from a company called Rights & Media Funding Ltd. This company does not publish audited accounts, has zero employees, spent a grand total of nine grand on assets last year and is based in the finance hub of N̷e̷w̷ ̷Y̷o̷r̷k̷,̷ ̷C̷a̷n̷a̷r̷y̷ ̷W̷h̷a̷r̷f̷,̷ ̷F̷r̷a̷n̷k̷f̷u̷r̷t̷,̷ ̷T̷o̷k̷y̷o̷ Macclesfield

@grok @realstockfox @KobeissiLetter @grok give a percentage increase per price and how it will affect the VIX futures at opening

@realstockfox @KobeissiLetter Oil futures (April WTI) settled Friday at $90.90 after +12% surge on Iran war/Strait disruptions. New Supreme Leader news keeps tensions high—no major de-escalation. Likely open near $90-92 at 6PM ET tonight, with volatility on any weekend updates from the region. Watch closely.

Key Events This Week: 1. US Stock Market and Oil Futures Open - 6 PM ET TODAY 2. February Existing Home Sales data - Tuesday 3. February CPI Inflation data - Wednesday 4. US Q4 2025 GDP Data - Friday 5. January PCE Inflation data - Friday 6. January JOLTS Job Openings data - Friday All eyes are on oil prices tonight.

@VolatilityVIX @DexAust What are you thinking for the short term? Stays in this range?

@DexAust My guess is this war mess ends within a week or two, and the market rips and pretends nothing happens. It shouldn't, there's way more broken underneath, but... I don't do predictions with my money, by the numbers only, but if I had to GUESS I'd say VIX in the teens by April

Long VXX when M1:M2 VIX futures are in backwardation  (<0%) As you can see, the results are terrible!  Why?  Doesn't backwardation mean $VXX should go up?  🤔 VIX futures are in backwardation about 18% of the time.  That's Long Vol WAY too often Let's filter it down  🧵

@CamelPhat @PolitlcsUK You mean filling in the form they said won’t protect you

@PolitlcsUK The UK isn’t protecting anyone in dubai right now… The UAE Gov is!!!

🚨 WATCH: Ed Davey says British tax exiles in Dubai should now be made to pay tax in the UK "As we protect them, it's only right for tax exiles to start paying taxes to fund our Armed Forces just like the rest of us do"

@Premium_Banker @The_RockTrading Projections

@The_RockTrading Volatility is going to be nuts when it opens up

If futures blow up in one hour, It’s been a pleasure.

@NoLimitGains @grok what UK time is this happens

🚨 THE SUPREME COURT IS ABOUT TO DECIDE THE FATE OF TRUMP’S TARIFFS Today at 10:00 AM ET. First opinion day after a four-week recess. The question: did Trump have the legal authority to use a 1977 emergency powers law to slap 10-50% tariffs on nearly every trading partner. Lower courts already said no, TWICE. Prediction markets are pricing a 75% chance the supreme court agrees. Even if SCOTUS kills these tariffs, the white house has already told you the play. Bessent said it publicly: they’ll rebuild the same structure using other trade statutes. Different legal wrapper, but same tariffs. The ruling might not come today tho. Tuesday and wednesday are also decision days. But everyone is watching 10 AM. The next few days will be insane. I’ll keep you updated on everything. Btw, I called every market top and bottom of the last 10 years, and I’ll call my next move publicly as always. Many people will wish they followed me earlier.

@DefiWimar @grok real or fake

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York - Treasury Securities Operational Details

🚨 BREAKING 🇺🇸 THE FED WILL INJECT $8.011 BILLION INTO THE MARKET TOMORROW AT 9:00 AM ET! THEY’RE OFFICIALLY CONTINUING QE AND TURNING ON THE MONEY PRINTER. GIGA BULLISH FOR MARKETS!

@The_RockTrading How can you see futures doing?

Morning

@TraderJonesy We do you think about the VIX

This is where most traders get it wrong. They think short term trades cancel the larger thesis. They don’t. Here’s the game plan. Short term on #QQQ we’re looking for 614. That’s where I take profit on the calls and immediately add back 50% size to the larger March put position that we took off at the lows. Trade the bounce. Reload the bigger move. On #SP500 we’re watching 687–692. Same approach. Take profit on the calls into that zone and rebuild and add back the 50% of the March puts that we took off at the lows. That level is pressure. That level is where probabilities flip again. On $TSLA we’re watching 430. I’m not trading calls there. I already de risked and trimmed puts for March at the lows. If we push into 430, I add back size to the March puts. There is a 70% chance that the #SP500 hits $692 again by Thursday of next week and a 85% chance by Friday of next week. There is a 70% chance that the #Nasdaq hits $614 by Thursday of next week and a 85% chance by Friday of next week. There is a 70% chance that $TSLA hits $430 again by Thursday of next week and a 85% chance by Friday of next week. Simple. Short term upside. Larger term downside. And here’s the part people don’t understand. The larger unwind into March hasn’t changed. In fact I believe it’s close to beginning. The weekly signals, the structure and the macro backdrop. All of it suggests that once the larger move starts, it will not respect short term probabilities. When that happens, the 1–2% intraday bounces we might try to trade in the future won’t matter. They’ll get absorbed by our larger positions. That’s why size stays small on short term trades. That’s why March puts stay on. That’s why we build into strength not weakness. Trade the bounce. Respect the structure. Prepare for the unwind. The crowd will get chopped trying to pick a side. We don’t pick sides. We trade levels. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! — TJ #SP500 #SPY #QQQ #TSLA #PLTR #NVDA #AAPL #Bitcoin #Crypto #stockmarket

@REDBOXINDIA @grok how will this impact the VIX

U.S. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) (MOM) (JAN) ACTUAL: 0.2% VS 0.3% PREVIOUS; EST 0.3% U.S. CORE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) (MOM) (JAN) ACTUAL: 0.3% VS 0.2% PREVIOUS; EST 0.3% U.S. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) (YOY) (JAN) ACTUAL: 2.4% VS 2.7% PREVIOUS; EST 2.5% U.S. CORE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) (YOY) (JAN) ACTUAL: 2.5% VS 2.6% PREVIOUS; EST 2.5%

@TradingThomas3 @The_RockTrading thoughts?

JPMorgan on market reaction to CPI tomorrow Core CPI MoM prints above 0.45%, 5% chance: $SPX could lose 1.25% to 2.5%. Core CPI MoM comes in between 0.4% and 0.45%, 25% chance: $SPY could fluctuate anywhere between losing 0.75% and gaining 0.25%. Core CPI MoM lands between 0.35% and 0.4%, 42.5% chance: $SPX could advance 0.25% to 0.75%. Core CPI MoM is between 0.3% and 0.35%, 22.5% chance: $SPY could gain 1% to 1.5%. Core CPI MoM prints below 0.3%, 5% chance: $SPX could gain 1.25% to 1.75%.

@Mr_Derivatives Vix

Is ANYTHING green today?

@TheNayaV @GrindeOptions 👀😬

@GrindeOptions Afternoon bloodbath, mark my words.

Is this a fake run up in stocks this morning? 👀