donald ballai

@aakashgupta Youre also forgetting the over $6 bl/ yr in dividends

Let me explain exactly why Buffett is sitting on $373B in cash despite a market up 72% in 5 years, because the "he missed it" frame doesn't square with the math. The Shiller PE just printed 41.06. The only time it's been meaningfully higher in 144 years of data was the 1999-2000 dot-com peak. Higher than 2007. Higher than 1929. After March 2000 the S&P drew down 49% over 30 months and didn't recover until 2007. Warren's playbook when valuations stretch has been the same three times in a row. 1969: He shut down Buffett Partnership Ltd. and returned capital to investors, saying he couldn't find anything worth buying. The Nifty Fifty crashed 45% over the next 5 years while he sat in muni bonds. 1999: Berkshire's stock dropped 19.9% while the S&P gained 21%. Barron's ran "What's Wrong, Warren?" on the cover. Then the dot-com unwind hit and Berkshire crushed the index for 3 straight years. 2007: $44B in cash at the peak. Deployed during the 2008-2009 panic into $5B Goldman preferred at 10% with warrants, $3B GE preferred at 10% with warrants, and the 2011 BAC deal that turned a $5B preferred into roughly $30B in realized value. Three deals nobody else on Earth could write the check for. Now run the math on the current pile. $373B in T-bills at 3.68% generates $13.7B per year in risk-free interest. Berkshire's average annual operating profit through the 2000s ran around $8B. The cash position alone is throwing off more income than the entire company used to produce. The bull case for full equity exposure today is real. AI capex inflecting, nominal earnings growing, momentum compounding. Sounds attractive until you ask what game Warren is actually playing. His job is to be the buyer when somebody desperate needs liquidity at minus 40%. The only currencies that game requires are patience and capital that doesn't redeem. Berkshire has both. And $13.7B per year while waiting. The trade was never even close.

@BenJawanda Price was and is wildly over valued. What it was is irrelevant.

$ASTS was $129 WITHOUT; BB6 Operational ✅ Liquidity Boost- $1.2B Convert ✅ BB7 Launch ✅ Commercial Authority (FCC FULL) ✅ SDA- $30m prime contract (HALO) ✅ TELUS Partnership- DA ✅ 3 NEW Patents ✅ And youre selling below $129 now?

@TedPillows Buffet is right for his style. Simple.

Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on $397,000,000,000 in cash. Is Buffett wrong, or does he know something?

@TradingThomas3 You just sound ridiculous. I have heard the same thing for decades. Eventually everyone comes crawling begging him for a bailout when rational valuations return

Buffett continues to hoard cash through one of the biggest bull runs last few years and combined that with inflation spikes. Might be time for the old man to call it.

@SouthernValue95 People have short memories. Every time brk has raised cash like this the mkts have indeed crashed. 2000, 2008 etc. this will be no different. Its just a game of when.

Hard not to contrast this to $BRK today. $BRK used to be sortof a better managed, better governed, better allocated version of the S&P. Now one is 40% AI and one is 40% cash. Berkshire is almost a bet against AI and on a market crash. Greg Abel pretty explicitly said on the stage they need a crash to deploy the excess capital, as equity prices in March weren’t enough (still net sellers of stocks in 1Q). Meanwhile the index construction has made it so dominated by tech and AI stocks that you basically need an AI selloff to crash the market.

@MeghanMcCain Its just mind boggling how anyone thinks Meghan is anything like her father? Texas gerrymanders and she cheers. Blue states do it and she is “ shocked “. Meanwhile, Virginia did it by popular vote. Stop embarrassing yourself Meghan. Youll be remembered as a liar & clown

How is it "defending democracy" when you're cutting up a state to rig elections so poor people and republicans voices don't count? This is literally the kind of thing that starts civil wars - EXPLAIN TO ME HOW IT IS "DEFENDING DEMOCRACY"?!?

@thehealthb0t I find it odd there are so many ignorant uneducated and misinformed clowns willing to tell the world they exist? Stop believing stupid conspiracy garbage and learn something.

Does anyone else find it odd that $200 billion is spent on cancer research every single year and the only thing to show for it is a 75% increase in cancer deaths since the 1990s?

@TrendingBitcoin Guy who’s entire company relies on you buying a mythical internet fairy coin says youll be sorryif you don’t buy it. Check

COINBASE CEO: YOU’LL BE SAD IF YOU DON’T OWN AT LEAST 5% BITCOIN He said BTC could reach $1,000,000 by 2030. He warns those without at least 5% of their net worth in BTC “will probably be sad.”

@bdinvestingg Sure. Thats 17x todays Market Cap , forget GAAP earnings. Wildly over valued

AST spaceMobile projected revenue is $1.8B by 2028 that’s a 26x in 3 years. So go ahead and sell your shares , I’ll buy them $ASTS

@AceCrouton @blueorigin Imagime how many failures nvda and amzn had alomg the way, and they dont launch rockets. This will take a lot of time to perfect

@DBallai @blueorigin Fair enough! I definitely have some anchoring bias from Rocket Lab and SpaceX.

Great job @blueorigin on fucking your customers. $ASTS

@AceCrouton @blueorigin You act like its a sure thing. Every company has failures. Its part of the learning curve and why they carry insurance. Mindlessly believing they can be perfect is not thoughtful

@DBallai @blueorigin A successful payload delivery is not absurd expectations… that is literally the service they paid for.

@MarcosMillaYT Just buy the SPYI, collect 12%/ yr with no individual stock risk.

What’s the best dividend stock to buy and hold for the next 10 years? 1) Procter & Gamble $PG 2) Home Depot $HD 3) Microsoft $MSFT 4) Visa $V 5) JPMorgan Chase $JPM 6) Coca-Cola $KO 7) McDonald’s $MCD 8) Altria $MO 9) Apple $AAPL 10) Exxon Mobil $XOM

@Raghad7wr And finally. You die of prostate cancer!!

الرسالة الأخيرة: ترك الاستمناء لوحده ما راح يصلّح حياتك. خلّنا نكون صريحين. لكن هو يزيل مصدر تشتيت كبير. ويرجع لك طاقة أكثر. ويخلّي ذهنك أوضح. اللي تسويه بهذي الطاقة هو اللي يغيّر كل شيء. استخدمها في البناء. استخدمها في التطوّر. استخدمها عشان تصير أفضل. هذا هو التحوّل الحقيقي.

ماذا يحدث لو توقفت عن الاستمناء لمدة سنة كاملة ؟؟ هذي الأشياء اللي فعليًا تتغير في دماغك وجسمك خلال 12 شهر 1. قضيبك يصير أكثر...

@mcuban How about we just regulate the heck out of insurance companies and lower premiums 50%. Cut the fraud and greed. Why force savings with Banksters? Americans are gettingeiped out by health insurance and med costs. Money that could be spent on education, innovation etc

What if there was a bank account available, that required you to deposit monthly, what you would have paid an insurance company in premiums, for an ACA silver plan. So for a family of 5 about $2100. The amount would then be used for Stop Loss Insurance set at $30k dollars. About $300. Another $200 would be used for local Direct Primary Care for your family The balance would be in YOUR bank account. Like an HSA, It could only be used for approved medical expenses. If you never have any medical expenses, you will get to keep the money plus checking act level interest, when you turn 65 If you have a medical event that is more than what you have saved, your bank will loan you the money you need to pay for it, up to the $30k stop loss trigger You would repay that amount using the monthly $1600 net deposit. Once the loan is paid off, the deposits start to accrue to you again. This is not insurance. It’s a specially designed bank account that gives you control, support, a doctor to work with and catastrophic financial protection. Lots of work and issues to be addressed. But I was curious what people think Let me know !

@StockSavvyShay @FuturumEquities Except margins today for these companies are multiple times higher than in Peters era. No one statistic is an island

PETER LYNCH’S FAVORITE METRIC IS THE PEG RATIO PEG < 1 usually means mispriced growth PEG > 2 starts to push into the danger zone Popular software names right now: • $NET ~4.7x • $FIG ~2.9x • $CRWD ~2.7x • $PANW ~2.5x • $PLTR ~2.4x • $DDOG ~2.3x • $SHOP ~1.9x • $SNOW ~1.9x • $MDB ~1.8x • $ZS ~1.6x • $RBRK ~1.5x • $APP ~1.0x • $PATH ~1.0x • $NOW ~1.0x • $CRM ~0.8x • $ADBE ~0.8x • $HUBS ~0.7x • $MNDY ~0.7x • $TEAM ~0.6x • $ZETA ~0.5x

@RichardWedekin1 How are you a critic of sbc while pumping a company with massive sbc ? Spin is nice. Best of luck

@DBallai If you would follow my account for longer you would know that I‘m one of the biggest critics of SBC. That’s why I like companies like $FTNT All you did was highlighting the fact that you are not a longterm follower

Unlike many of it´s SaaS peers, ServiceNow generates real Free Cashflow $NOW First of all we are talking about a FCF-CAGR of 31%! SBC is still high, but Free Cashflow is growing way faster! SBC-adjusted FCF-Margin in FY25 was 19.7% This is profitable growth!

@TheFrogDies @PeterMallouk These were many stocks that is great during this period. Isrg, REGN, LLY, many others. Totally misleading

yes, this is the case against holding an S&P-500 index tracker the VAST majority of stocks you are holding are worthless worse than that, nobody would ever buy most of the stocks you hold, if they were not in the index - i.e. it's literally only index trackers that are buying those stocks some companies would be worth pennies, if it wasn't that they were in the index

Absolutely insane stat: Just 3.7% of stocks created 100% of U.S. stock market wealth over the last century. Miss a handful of winners … and you miss the market. That’s why you need to diversify.

@PeterMallouk @charliebilello Thats an advertisement for just buying the index