Debashish

1.1K posts

Debashish

Debashish

@DEBASE3

Sports, Prog metal, Markets, Investment Mgmt, AI, Singularity - is time speeding up? https://t.co/uZpNT1hLUb

Here, there, everywhere Katılım Ağustos 2012
593 Takip Edilen947 Takipçiler
Debashish
Debashish @DEBASE3·
At 25% tariff, India was 10% worse off vs peers. So a 10% depr since May'25 was the short term mitigant. In that period fwd premia expansion was hardly 50bps. Ergo ..managed depreciation. @harshmadhusudan
Harsh Gupta Madhusudan@harshmadhusudan

This piece starts with a factual error. The rupee did not fall 12% in 4 months but in the last year. More substantively, it is correct the problem is not with inflation or trade or fiscal etc. It is not even on interest differentials as india is more sensitive to equity flows than bond flows. problem is indeed on capital account - FPI outflows and to a lesser extent gold. On FPI, few people have made this point while the whole narrative is on AI etc: that structural DII bid mechanically means FPI sell unless there is more supply (IPO/QIP/promoter sales). As March data showed, SIP book remains surprisingly strong overall and April has actually seen a sharp market rebound even as blockade continues. I agree with the authors that exports are not stimulated in the short term given the india basket at these levels, so that is not an immediate mitigating effect either. Hence in the very short term unless there is some gold policy action, crude falling, high bond inflows, many more IPOs or AI slowdown: FPI outflows will likely continue in the very short term. But FDI gross FY26 hit ~$90B and net ~$10B after zero/negative for FY25. Gold imports have shrunk in March. Aggregate bond index inclusion is again up in the air this fall after the 3 EM indices being done. PPP/MER ratio remains 4.75 (95/20), so that is clearly very oversold (former CEO of Niti Ayog just wrote a piece on this point which I have been talking about.) I think this "problem" is likely to be resolved by a melt-up in the Indian equities over the next couple of years whereby even DII and FII both flows get neutralised by new paper and promoter sales. RBI has not yet done FCNR a la 2013 and MoF has not done gold crackdown - I maintain we are going back to 80s to begin with.

English
0
0
2
71
Debashish
Debashish @DEBASE3·
My first Hinglish podcast. We get into the Rabbit hole of global macro (How events from Covid to Ukraine, Tariffs and Iran are interconnected), hard decisions in front of India (and its investment implications). Enjoy! Shout to @ThisOrThatIndia for doing this! To be continued..
This Or That@ThisOrThatIndia

The world's real debt isn't $30 trillion. It's closer to 20x global GDP. That's the hidden derivatives layer no government has to file. @DEBASE3 explains the whole machine on the latest episode 👇 youtube.com/watch?v=vIL33w…

English
0
3
4
158
Debashish
Debashish @DEBASE3·
India moving to a stage where it needs to "build" (resilience, self sufficiency, export engine etc) implies a phase of higher capex and lower ROEs. Implies market multiples should approach longer term North Asian averages. @harshmadhusudan
Harsh Gupta Madhusudan@harshmadhusudan

Bears are finding a vindication in the market fall. That is natural and expected, never mind the 50% tariffs and the latest war were not exactly base case scenarios. The argument is these were just triggers, but the Indian valuation was already very high in 2024 (and even in 2025, they claim) so one should have ex ante anyway be careful. Ex post facto, of course they are right in a results' sense. But then so is a broken clock twice a day mechanically. What we are yet to see is what "should" the valuation of the Indian market be in the broad mid-2020s at the index levels? Be it in terms of the conventional multiples or otherwise. There will always be pockets of exuberance and fear - sometimes more the former, sometimes latter - but we can only do broad evaluations. Running multi-year averages and anchoring on a simplistic 20 say, while useful as a heuristic, does not tell us much about the fundamental valuation range of India from a first-principles point of view. It does not account for the big cycles, the India fall in volatility for microstructure reasons, the growth differential, the macro and other reforms. After all, the PE ratio itself has been on an uptrend over the last 25 odd years. With AI these days, it is actually rather easy to play with multi-phase multi-variable models on RGDP/NGDP growth, FCF/EPS evolution, SD/ERP change, USD/INR, RFR/beta etc. But no large institutional conventional AMC I know of has produced any such report, despite them being well resourced, sell side or buy side. I am sure their prop models are more sophisticated than they let on, but maybe that is individual trader specific (or may be not even that) given the quality of some of the research we see and consume.

English
0
0
0
67
Debashish
Debashish @DEBASE3·
Undervalued and Over-owned are unlikely bedfellows Probably convinced RBI even more that CBDCs are needed ...soon.... @RahulRao_1992
First Principles Investing@RahulRao_1992

HDFC BANK IS VERY LIKELY UNDERVALUED. First, let me confess I was an HDFC Bull. Second, I'm NOT invested in the bank today. Third, I made Zero returns holding HDFC Bank stock between FY21 & FY24. Yet, based on what I know today, HDFC Bank is experiencing a temporary market dislocation. Here are 3 simple reasons why ⤵️ 1. Merger benefits are beginning to show up AFTER A LONG TIME. Thank God. If you look at the growth between deposits, credit and EPS, you will notice improvement. It's playing our largely how the management has outlined with some delays. It's hard to visualise a growth of 20% but 15% is NOT a hard ask. Faster than "system growth" isn't a hard ask either. However, the environment is much more competitive today vs when PSU banks were out of action. 2. The bank is well capitalised + has asset quality under control. ROE is trending downward over the last 3 quarters but should recover ~15% as merger benefits kick in. 3. In a remarkable show of faith, RBI itself issued a letter highlighting denying governance concerns. To the best of my knowledge, I cannot recall once when RBI openly backed & vouched for a private bank in this manner. When you combine the above you get a bank with one the most stable earning profile in NIFTY 50, trading at less than average NIFTY 50 PE. As growth picks up, matching the system level growth in FY27, HDFC Bank should trade equivalent to NIFTY 50 PE or even a premium. But that's a relative game. Even on an absolute basis, ~14% ROE at 2X book means I'm buying a stable bond-like earnings profile asset at 7% growing at 10-12% yearly. The 10 year GOI bond yield is 6.9%, which means PE of 14.5x. So, you have two assets: 1. A GOI bond at 14.5x. Safe AF but doesn't grow more than 7% (assuming all of interest is added back tax-free into the principal) 2. One of the most stable earnings profile in NIFTY 50, a systematically important bank ALSO at 15x but which can grow 10-12% TODAY and likely to start faster. If you believe anytime in the next 3 years credit growth on a sytem level will hit 15%, assume HDFC Bank can growth at least at that. That has all the makings of an undervalued asset. Yours Rahul Rao

English
0
0
2
115
Debashish
Debashish @DEBASE3·
Well articulated by @ananthng At this stage of our evolution, bond mkts have a bigger role as things we need (energy,transport, manfg., urban infra etc) are 70:30 debt to equity funded. Taxation ->incentives, convexity arb > liquidity, regulations free up capital
Ananth Narayan@ananthng

Liquidity Without Credit: Why India’s Debt Markets are the "Stepchild" to Equities At a time of geopolitical upheaval, the natural instinct is to focus on short-term firefighting. But we must also use this to reflect on the "quiet" systemic issues that have dogged our markets for years. In my latest piece for @bsindia, I argue that a mix of taxation, regulatory design, and market interventions has structurally suppressed our credit markets relative to equities over the years. The Ripple Effect: Capital Formation: Under-allocation of savings to fixed income. Equity Distortions: Forced domestic flows into equities, leading to pockets of overvaluation. External Balance: Tapering net foreign investment and pressure on the Rupee. The proposed Solution Set: Taxation: Move gradually toward an asset-agnostic, investment-friendly tax regime (leveling the field for interest income). Regulation: Ensure micro-prudential buffers (LCR/ NSFR) don't aggregate into a macro-level drag on lending. Intervention: Maintain holistic awareness of the second-order impacts of currency and debt market interventions. India’s financial depth requires more than a thriving equity cult; it needs a robust credit ecosystem. Read the full article here: bit.ly/3NIBchY

English
0
2
3
817
Debashish
Debashish @DEBASE3·
Higher oil prices (due to weaponization or supply disruption) is what incentivizes innovation in alternatives. (Tesla's free energy machine). Hopefully / infact quite likely this scenario happens and in turn forces countries like India to find real answers. @1shankarsharma
English
0
0
2
105
Debashish
Debashish @DEBASE3·
Capital preservation next 5 years ie what holds value if the monetary system & global order break. Supply chain resets which started with COVID just got massively reinforced. No choice but to build ie low ROE for Reqd inv. Lower multiples. Greater resilience. @Ajaya_buddy
Ajaya Sharma@Ajaya_buddy

Over 2 decades i have worked w/ founders promoters & investors of all categories, new HNIs, Big HNIs, funds, FIIs, Family offices.. the whole 9-yards.. havnt seen sentiment so depressed, almost given up.. complete dejection among investors in a long long time.. sabra ka bandh

English
1
0
2
918
Debashish
Debashish @DEBASE3·
@BT7252 The same as what payment aggregators do today ....
English
0
0
1
5
Debashish
Debashish @DEBASE3·
And all this is pre CBDC. @Reematendulkar
Reema Tendulkar@Reematendulkar

Very interesting view by Sridhar Sivaram @srisiv1 on CNBCTV18 on why he does not like large private banks Listen to video, if not then here is a short summary It’s a profit pool question. The profit pool for the banking sector has shrunk. PSU banks have become very aggressive on the retail space which was the bastion for private banks. Same technology (and credit data like CIBIL scores) and credit data like CIBIL scores have levelled the playing field. Home loans at 7.25%, vehicle loans at 7.75–8, we’ve never seen PSU banks advertise like this. PSU banks are comfortable with lower profitability targets (around 1% ROA). That compresses margins across the sector, meaning the total profit pool available to banks is smaller than before. Private sector banks used to give you 20% profit growth. We are now in the 10% profit growth band. On FIIs Selling Banks are asking “Why should I buy a private bank growing at 10% at 2.5x price-to-book when I can buy similar growth banks elsewhere at half the multiple? #CNBCTV18 #HDFCbank #ICICIBank

English
1
0
3
198
Debashish
Debashish @DEBASE3·
Man machine integration and biological compute It's yours to keep....whatever "you" is after the transition. @dgt10011
Jeff Park@dgt10011

This weekend I revisited an old problem- When I was a hedge fund analyst in the 2010s, I hired an offshore developer to parse 13Fs and build a systematic trading strategy around what I considered proprietary signals. I knew which star managers were not only legit but also relatively unknown and under the radar- because they were... my friends. I knew how to "read" 13Fs based on matching strategies: special sits, RV, merger arb, long/short, weighting recency and duration with learnt optimization techniques. Without this context, 13Fs are lifeless data strung together for SEC disclosure that can be easily misinterpreted (esp. because derivatives and shorts are not reported entirely or correctly). But if you knew where the signal was, AND how to digest it, it became a priceless treasure mine, especially in sectors like biotech where alpha and dispersion run high. The #1 constraint though, and why I ultimately stopped the project, was that the offshore dev was difficult to work with: communication, reliability, quality. The problem had little to do with my technical literacy (fun fact, I competed nationally in the American Computer Science League in high school, placing in both C++ and Java, so while I am by no means fluent, I can read and direct). The problem was entirely human. It became so frustrating to work with a partner whose incentives weren't aligned with my demand for urgency, accuracy, robustness. So I ultimately abandoned the project and that was over ten years ago. This weekend, I revisited the same project using Claude. In that instant, I didn't just see the future- I touched it. I may have even grasped it. The best way I can describe the experience is as @karpathy described it a few years ago: "The hottest new programming language is English." One of the primary reasons engineers have been so high in demand (and well compensated) is because they're essentially "translators of the modern business." Anytime you want to do anything, you need a "translator" to write your intent in a software-driven world. I can "speak Spanish to get by," but it's never going to be as good as someone fluent, so I always need a third party involved. In that process lies a game of translation that's arduous, frustrating, and time-consuming. And most often, engineers don't care as deeply about sales and product as sales and product care about their own deliverables to clients. The friction therefore is inevitable. Anyone who has ever tried to work with a technical implementation partner knows this inherent tension. But Claude is a translator at will. I booted my pilot program in under four hours with dashboards, scripts, exactly with the context I wanted, with rudimentary agentic workflows that are still dynamically developing. What this revealed to me is the return of the Socratic method. Claude gets things wrong sometimes, so you have to ask critical questions to help it learn. The kinds of questions that used to take hours of education, often with a dash of hurt feelings or other bottlenecks that come with working with humans. Not Claude. Not AI. There is no principal-agent problem anymore. Which led me to a great realization: It's not just that "programming is now English"- it's "programming is now unconstrained English." An Esperanto 2.0. There are profound implications here for what it means to invest IN the future, and to invest FOR the future. In this particular project's case, the signals remain somewhat proprietary (since the world doesn't know which funds are run by my smart friends and 3c7 funds can't really be data scraped). I've long intuited that education will look different for my children- that they'll need to learn how to think critically to get ahead which is one reason I've experimented with progressive education models. I'm now convinced more than ever that the world will no longer demand domain expertise at the individual level for everything, but rather the ability to prompt, contextualize, and critically reason for adaptive outputs. Contrary to many general assumptions, this "language" will actually specialize, and evolve far faster than any ivory tower curriculum can accommodate. Skill gaps will emerge at scale in ways we cannot predict. It's not dissimilar to elite schools teaching Latin while the rest of the world had already moved to English. We haven't invented the word yet for what this "language" is, but I would describe it as "symbolic systems to communicate with machines." If you haven't played with agentic models yet, this is both an invitation and a warning: start now. An invitation because you'll feel like a superhuman, rediscover a childlike curiosity you might have once lost, and most of all, find your brain critically engaged with an incredible sparring partner, one that is as good as you make it and most importantly: yours to keep. But also in the spirit of warning, there is a remote yet dark possibility that this tool may not remain as accessible in the future, especially if cost or regulation impedes it, or if populous society turns on it before a critical wealth effect is distributed. So drink the elixir while the fountain is madly rushing out of the firehose today. Because whatever the future may hold, you will never forget the taste for the rest of your lifetime to come.

English
0
0
1
46