DNIZ21

104 posts

DNIZ21

DNIZ21

@DNIZ2121

Katılım Haziran 2024
67 Takip Edilen16 Takipçiler
DNIZ21
DNIZ21@DNIZ2121·
@TKkamen You’ll have to re-enter at double the price
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Bristlecone Biocapital
Bristlecone Biocapital@TKkamen·
Exited $LQDA. Will re-enter when there’s more clarity. New position $WVE
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Savage
Savage@Savageboston·
REPORT per: @thepatriotsbeat The Patriots have made a trade offer for AJ Brown. The asking price remains too high.
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DNIZ21
DNIZ21@DNIZ2121·
Give me $30 so I can load the boat again $lqda @teepahpah
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Ceiv
Ceiv@_Ceiv·
@PaulAll95402077 @slk349390919 I seem to be the only one correctly channeling the anger away from a judge and to the mgmt team? Am I the only one there?
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Ceiv
Ceiv@_Ceiv·
As soon as data and a judge take us higher... Lol... so, yes, I'm complaining about bad mgmt... you are part of cult who says "just wait until 3q26, it'll be lit" Every other co in this space transacts on promise, $Lqda can't... Stockholm syndrome right here
TGOD01@tgod01

@_Ceiv @SirHiss108 @mbamcnulty You're incessant, impatient whining is annoying and shows your ignorance as well. We're at all time highs, up 5x in 2 years, on the verge of a much higher breakout as soon as the Judge gets off his pot and Q4 earnings come - and you're complaining about management? Get a grip man

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Andre
Andre@PerryGlasenberg·
@mbamcnulty This could extend into mid-H1 2026, correct?
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McNulty
McNulty@mbamcnulty·
$LQDA This is getting annoying now. Just release it already…
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DNIZ21
DNIZ21@DNIZ2121·
@RebellioMarket “Weak earnings”… They were almost profitable within 1 quarter after Yutrepia launch. They SMASHED earnings
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Market Rebellion
Market Rebellion@RebellioMarket·
Investors should always focus on companies they truly understand. When you’re familiar with a business—its products, market, risks, and strengths—you can build realistic expectations about its growth potential and future prospects. Knowledge reduces blind risk. Today, $LQDA was briefly analyzed in my Discord group, and it moved exactly in line with our expectations. Keep watching it. Despite weak earnings and low volume, remember: sometimes a fundamentally good stock carries its own hidden catalyst. Patience and understanding often reveal what the numbers don’t show immediately.
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RH
RH@SirHiss108·
As a doctor, skinny label will definitely affect PH-ILD Rx. They can't "just write Rx for PAH" - that's insurance fraud if the patient doesn't have PAH. These are two very distinct diseases. They could try to submit appeals but I would expect (base case) nearly all health insurance companies are very, very unlikely to pay for a $200k/year drug unless they have to. While it has FDA approval, if it is not on the label, insurance has plausible deniability. Their goal is not to provide patients with what they need but to make money. If there is a way to avoid paying $200k/year for a patient, they will likely avoid it. You might see some exceptions here, but I would expect PH-ILD Rx to approach zero (de minimis). Skinny label is not a good outcome, but as I've said before, the PAH market is large enough and Yutrepia is superior enough that even at current valuation, it will still do well. I'd expect a steep selloff if there is a skinny label judgement (probably 30-50% drop).
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Alpha Hunter
Alpha Hunter@AlphaHunte79332·
Another way to think about $LQDA here is that as of October 30th, they were run-rating at $1.65 in fully diluted EPS. 2,000 Rx - 85% conversion to new starts - 1,700 patients - at $225k a year - 95% gross margin - $200mm in opex - 15% tax rate - equals $140mm in earnings on ~99mm in fully diluted shares or roughly $1.40 a share. Every day they are adding roughly 10 patients (1100 new Rx a quarter run rate per the call - or 12.2 a day and assume a 85% conversion rate yields 10.4 patients). Each day they are generating $1.8mm in incremental margin (225k * 10 * 95% minus 15% tax) or roughly 1.8 cents a share in EPS. Just since October 30th, they have added 12 cents in earnings to that $1.40 number. So as of today we are at a $1.52 annualized run rate in EPS. Obviously the waiting for the legal overhang removal is hard for longs, but every day that base level of earnings goes up significantly and this business has magnificent operative leverage. Folks can play with whatever legal probabilities they like, but as long as you believe that no patients are going to be removed from a branded drug that is life-saving, that earnings is not going down.
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SSV
SSV@biotechsanya2·
@fin_capital $LQDA is not going anywhere, like anywhere at all, until the legal risk is resolved. No reason to own this until then.
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FindellCap
FindellCap@fin_capital·
$LQDA reported their results yesterday that far exceeded our own expectations. To appreciate the scope of this launch so far, we believe the case study of $VRNA is illuminating. Both $VRNA and $LQDA treat pulmonary conditions (COPD/PH), have similar undiluted share counts (85mm/87mm), and CEOs who came from $UTHR (Zaccardelli/Jeffs). VRNA launched in the summer of 2024 while LQDA launched this past summer and at launch both stock were trading in the low teens. The $VRNA story has already unfolded. They had a terrific launch that exceeded expectations and the company would be acquired for $10 billion (~$107 a share) the following year after 3 full quarters of commercialization. We are now one full quarter into the commercial story of $LQDA, and they are having a better launch to date than $VRNA. $VRNA did $36.6mm in its first full quarter while $LQDA did over $52mm. $VRNA did $72.8mm in its second full quarter while $LQDA should substantially exceed that given current Rx numbers. $VRNA still generated losses until their 3rd full quarter of launch. $LQDA is profitable in its first full quarter of launch ($LQDA has much lower overhead with a smaller sales force). Where the two stories differ so far at least is in the stock price. $VRNA was north of $40 a share after reporting its first full quarter of commercialization and exceeded $70 stock after reporting its second full quarter of commercialization. Despite posting higher revenue and better margins, $LQDA with roughly same share count as $VRNA is priced at $25 a share. Obviously, what gives here is the '327 concern. But with this kind of growth, $LQDA's PAH numbers are exceeding what the street had envisioned they would do in PAH and ILD combined. The other issue that we believe is equally as important is where we are in the calendar year. All funds are sensitive to how they perform in the short term, but that sensitivity is heightened as we get to year end. All binary risks that can create a potential negative impact are avoided. Why step in front of a potentially negative mark to market even if the long term picture is positive? But there in lies the long term opportunity. We believe that $LQDA is proving that it has the best in class product for this market and has better launch data so far than $VRNA. We saw how that story ended with a $10 billion take out and +$100 take out price.
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DNIZ21
DNIZ21@DNIZ2121·
@AnnaFlorcia @DeepValuePlay Question… say PH-ILD is removed from the label (very slim chance I know) Could doctors still diagnose PH-ILD patients with PAH and prescribe Yutrepia/L606 anyway?
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AnnaF
AnnaF@AnnaFlorcia·
I ask why they would run a open label trial for Yutrepia in IPF and others? RJ knows doctors looking for data and can use PH-ILD for insurance. Patents and labels won't get in the way. RJ has the connections and confidence. Also a sign that RJ and team believe PH-ILD not coming off the label.
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AnnaF
AnnaF@AnnaFlorcia·
$LQDA starting trial shortly for Oral to Yutrepia along with IPF. They are going after everything. 🚨 They know label doesn't matter, doctors just want data.
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B/R Gridiron
B/R Gridiron@brgridiron·
Bengals team captain LB Logan Wilson has requested a trade, per @AdamSchefter
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DNIZ21
DNIZ21@DNIZ2121·
@m_a_c_h_1_n_e @NFL @tae15adams @TravisHunterJr @insidetheNFL Who’s my team? I’m a Patriots fan🤣🤣 Jags traded the house to get this kid… start him both ways and leave him on the field, don’t be scared of injuries. Also BTJ has looked like shit all year and Hunter is just now ramping up… LEARN BALL🤡
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Mach1ne
Mach1ne@m_a_c_h_1_n_e·
@DNIZ2121 @NFL @tae15adams @TravisHunterJr @insidetheNFL You're fucking retarded. BTJ has more yards. Both have ONE TOUCHDOWN Hunter is just as effective in 10-15 key plays on offense, and he's a better defender than he is receiver. Your dog shit team is going down in flames, dumb fuck
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DNIZ21
DNIZ21@DNIZ2121·
@SavageSports_ Remember when you complained after the Red Sox let go of Devers? Same vibes….. Obviously wasn’t a good fit for what Vrabel is looking for
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Savage
Savage@Savageboston·
Jabrill Peppers responds to the Patriots cutting him. Peppers would have clearly been one of the 53 best players on the roster.
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DNIZ21
DNIZ21@DNIZ2121·
@Golfbet Driver - Potgieter Irons - Scottie Wedges - Min Woo Lee Putter - Denny McCarthy
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Golfbet
Golfbet@Golfbet·
Who's your picks? Choose one from each column 👀
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D
D@paperhands91·
How I feel when I look at my $LQDA position…
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DNIZ21
DNIZ21@DNIZ2121·
@Hortiez @SleeperNFL Jettas is nasty, but won’t finish a top 3 receiver because of bum ass JJ McCarthy. You MIGHT have had an argument if we were talking Jamar Chase, but even then you are dead wrong. LEARN BALL
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DNIZ21
DNIZ21@DNIZ2121·
@Hortiez @SleeperNFL Those stats don’t help your argument😂 Nobody gives af about pro bowls… only all pro teams… You truly believe Henderson and rice won’t make a pro bowl? Plus Henry who has shown ZERO signs of slowing down. 15 TDs guaranteed.. And a future first rounder…
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SleeperNFL
SleeperNFL@SleeperNFL·
PLAYER VS PACKAGE (DYNASTY): Would you rather have; Justin Jefferson OR Rashee Rice TreVeyon Henderson Derrick Henry 26 1st
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💎🙌🏻 Hortie 11:11🚀
@SleeperNFL You keep JJ. Never risk a super star, who’s possibly best wr in the nfl for a package. There’s no guarantee any of the rookies or picks even become average players.
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