SauceBawse
8.6K posts
A stock falls from 100 to 10. That's a 90% decline.
The investor buys in at 10 because it is indeed worth 30.
But it has fallen so much it has become detached from the underlying business and so falls to 5.. The value investor is down 50%.
Which isn't as bad as 90%, but is still 50 effing percent.
The value investor could have sold at 8, and limited the loss.
10 years later the stock is at $30. While said nvestor gies to medical school and finsihes residency to become a surgeon.
That's a six times return in 10 years. About 20% per year.
Wait, is it not only a triple?
No, because the investor could have sold at 5 like just about everyone else did, but did not.
What I describe here is almost exactly WBD. And it didn't take 10 years, because it usually doesn't.
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SauceBawse retweetledi
JD Vance is warning Benjamin Netanyahu’s administration not to mess around with the United States, saying they may end up losing everything.
Vance says Trump is their last ally because the entire world already hates them.
"If I were in the cabinet of the Israeli government, I might not be attacking the only powerful ally I have."
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@RepThomasMassie How do you keep rabbits and deer from eating all that?
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This is the garden Carolyn and I are growing this year. She wanted to plant flowers and herbs in my vegetables. Rather than argue about how many vegetables that would displace, I expanded the garden by building another terrace with stones I found on the farm.
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@RepThomasMassie @RepRoKhanna Tom Cotton needs to move to Israel or else be charged with treason
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Section 219 (was 224) of the NDAA contains a dangerous provision to integrate our military tech with Israel’s.
@RepRoKhanna & I submitted an amendment to strike 219. I included the Rules Committee roster here; 7 of 13 members must agree in order for our amendment to get a vote.
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@KobeissiLetter It will be in tatters in 48 hours when Satanyahu sabotages it
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The Iran peace deal has now been announced by Pakistan on X, confirmed by US leaders and Iranian media on X, and backed by Qatar on X.
X has become the central venue to discuss and announce the most influential decisions in the world.
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@KobeissiLetter So uh, if their “terms” are not matching your “terms” … common sense would dictate that, you know, THERE IS NO DEAL
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BREAKING: President Trump says the deal terms that Iran "leaked" have "nothing to do with the terms that were agreed to" and Iranian leaders are "very dishonorable people to deal with."
"With them, there is no such thing as dealing in good faith," Trump says.
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SauceBawse retweetledi
@Keir_Starmer You sound more outraged about the protest than a Somali person trying to behead an Irish man.
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@MySportsUpdate Translation from the judge: “I’m a Texas Tech fan!”
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The judge’s reasoning for granting the injunction to Texas Tech QB Brendan Sorsby:
“This court finds that [Sorsby] will suffer a probable, imminent, and irreparable injury” without the injunction because he “will be unable to participate as a member of Texas Tech University’s 2026 football team.”
Ari Meirov@MySportsUpdate
A surprise: Texas Tech QB Brendan Sorsby has been granted the injunction he requested by a judge in District Court in Lubbock County, Texas, per @PeteThamel. Sorsby is now expected to be eligible for the 2026 college football season and will not have to enter the NFL Supplemental Draft.
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BREAKING: The Israeli Air Force says it conducted strikes in western and central Iran.
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SauceBawse retweetledi
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It’s all talk. Just withhold foreign aid to Israel for a month and they’ll stop bombing their neighbors - instant peace, the Strait of Hormuz can be opened, and gas drops $2 a gallon. Israel has been, and continues to be, the biggest welfare recipient from American tax payers.
Fox News@FoxNews
"You're f****** crazy. You'd be in prison if it weren't for me. I'm saving your a***. Everybody hates you now. Everybody hates Israel because of this." That's what a U.S. official tells Axios President Trump unloaded on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a heated phone call over Israel's military actions in Lebanon. Trump was reportedly furious that Israel's moves risked blowing up U.S. diplomatic efforts in the region, at one point also asking Netanyahu: "What the f*** are you doing?"
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The Rams made a run at trading for A.J. Brown earlier in the offseason before breaking off talks. Now, on the day the NFL world circled for a Brown trade, Myles Garrett is the first star dealt and now is headed to L.A.
Tom Pelissero@TomPelissero
Blockbuster! The Browns are finalizing a trade sending superstar Myles Garrett to the Rams, sources tell @AdamSchefter, @RapSheet and me. Cleveland is expected to receive two-time Pro Bowl edge Jared Verse, a 2027 first-round pick and additional compensation.
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SauceBawse retweetledi
If the provision in the NDAA to integrate/synchronize the U.S. and Israeli militaries (section 224) makes it out of committee, I’ll offer an amendment to strip it from the bill on the floor.
We are a sovereign country.
armedservices.house.gov/uploadedfiles/…
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@KobeissiLetter Massive tax increases by a Democrat administration in 2028-2030 incoming
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The US debt crisis is set to become significantly worse:
Entitlements, interest, and other mandatory outlays are estimated to consistently surpass Federal tax revenues by 2031, according to CBO.
These expenditures are projected to rise to ~20% of GDP by 2040.
That would be the highest percentage on record when excluding the 2020 and 2021 pandemic period.
Net interest alone is estimated to reach 5% of GDP, an all-time high.
At the same time, tax revenues are expected to increase only modestly, to 18% of GDP, the highest since 2020.
To put this into perspective, tax revenues as a % of GDP exceeded entitlements, interest, and other mandatory outlays by 8 percentage points in 2000.
What is the long-term plan here?
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@PhilaFanCentral Love what AJ brought to the team, but it’s time to part ways. We gave up a 1st Rnd pick and extracted his 4 prime years + 2 SB appearances and a World Championship out of the partnership. Now going to get a 1st or 2nd coming back. Unreal resource management
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Two days until AJ Brown is gone and I’m so torn on how to feel.
Part of me is grateful for the 1,400-yard seasons, elite WR play we longed for, two Super Bowl appearances and one championship.
The other part of me is mad that he’s voluntarily breaking up the best core the Eagles have ever had just 2 years after signing an extension and saying he’d retire here.
Part of me is sad he’s already moving on, but part of me is glad the constant drama and selfish diva behavior is leaving.
Where do you stand on AJ right now?
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BREAKING: The Trump Administration and the US Treasury Department are designing a $250 bill featuring President Trump, per the Washington Post.
If this is launched, President Trump would be the first living person to appear on a US currency since 1866.
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@TuckerCarlson Pay attention to the “data centers” people. Everything is not what it seems.
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BREAKING: President Trump releases a statement on crypto.
“Trump will never let crypto down,” he says.
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SauceBawse retweetledi
🚨 THIS IS NOT NORMAL
SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are preparing to go public.
All at once.
To absorb these giants, the market will need to find $200 BILLION in fresh liquidity.
This is a brutal stress test for global investors.
To buy into these IPOs, big funds need a lot of cash.
They will ruthlessly cut overextended tech.
First in line: NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Google.
But these companies hold up the entire S&P 500.
If they start to fall, the index will follow.
We saw this before during the COVID bubble.
Dozens of tech companies (Rivian, Coinbase, Robinhood) hit the market at crazy high prices.
When the Fed hiked rates and liquidity dried up, these stocks crashed 80%.
The AI and tech sectors are already running on fumes.
Add a $200B drain, and you get a systemic flush.
Get positioned before this massive rotation begins.
As a reminder, I’ve called every major market turn for the last 10 years, including the $111K BTC peak in October.
Turn on notifications. I will guide you through this liquidity squeeze, and when the real bottom finally forms, I’ll call it here publicly.
MARMOT@Web3Marmot
🚨 NVIDIA IS IN SERIOUS TROUBLE NVIDIA is the ultimate AI play. But even the best stories hit a top. The AI euphoria is blinding the crowd to the numbers. Here is what most people miss: Trading volume has been falling for years. This rally has almost no fuel left. NVDA hit the same high twice. Same price. Weaker move. That’s exactly how tops form before a brutal drop. A massive red weekly candle just erased the last month of gains. Big red candles like this only appear when the trend is turning. The chart is screaming at you. Sell the stock. The price is way too high. Better setups with much lower risk are waiting. Turn on notifications. I’ll show you the next high-conviction plays before they become obvious to everyone.
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