BagDaddy 🐸🦇🔊🍉

“Death with dignity is better than a life of humiliation” —Imam Hussain (AS)

Triple kill

I have to revise my opinion on drone launches from the territory of Kazakhstan. I don't think that they are occurring. If Ukrainian drones could be freely launched from sparsely populated, "empty" areas of Kazakhstan - as I suspected -, they would be hitting key military-industrial/economic targets: Tyumen, Omsk, Novosibirsk, Barnaul, Tomsk, Novokuznetsk, Chelyabinsk, Yekaterinburg (circled in blue). These cities are located quite close to the Kazakh border and would become immediate priority targets if Ukrainian agents could move through Kazakh territory and reliably launch drones (red dotted arrows). There have been repeated attempts at striking Chelyabinsk and Yekaterinburg, but so far unsuccessful, except for one case with the latter (blue dotted arrows). A Ukrainian drone recently crashed on Kazakh territory near Orsk (blue X). Earlier, Ukrainian drones crashed on what would be a reasonable drone approach towards Samara and Volgograd (also blue X). Ukrainian drones are clearly flying through Kazakhstan, but I don't believe they are launched from there anymore. Instead, and I have received some credible information on this matter, I believe many long-range Ukrainian drones are launched from civilian vessels converted into drone carriers off the Caspian Sea port of Baku, Azerbaijan. These drones then fly through the Caspian, maneuver through Kazakh territory for as long as possible, and enter Russian territory relatively close to their targets, flying through the steppe and other territories that are much less populated and much less defended (blue arrows). This makes much more sense from a technical, political and military perspective than assuming these drones are freely flying through thousands of kilometers of very dense air defence networks, including the line of contact. It would be quite wasteful to send every drone swarm through the the densest expected Russian defensive belts every time (orange arrows). Particularly Samara and Volgograd (1 and 4) have been hit repeatedly in the last months, with Kazan and Cheboksary (2 and 3) joining the "club" more recently. As for the (geo)political implications of this -- that's another question altogether...

Germany's Chancellor Merz continues to demand: Iran must come to the negotiating table. It must stop playing for time. It must no longer take the region and the entire world hostage. Its military nuclear program must be ended completely and forever, and there must be no further strikes against Israel and our partners in the region.

🚨🇮🇱🇹🇷🇰🇿Turkey's airspace denial forced Israeli President Isaac Herzog to take a long detour flight route to Kazakhstan.

A Ukrainian cope drone crashed in Kazakhstan today near the Russian border. I've been talking about this for years now. You're welcome.