Dan Villas
185 posts


OIL IS NOW AS CHEAP AS IT WAS BEFORE EVERY MAJOR PRICE EXPLOSION OF THE LAST 30 YEARS
And almost nobody is talking about it.
Divide WTI crude by M2 money supply. The ratio sits at 0.00265.
This exact level preceded:
1999: Oil tripled from $10 to $30
2009: Oil surged from $33 to $100
2016: Oil doubled from $26 to $70
2020: Oil exploded from $17 to $108
The pattern has never failed.
What the market sees: $58 oil amid a 3.1 million barrel per day surplus.
What the market misses: That $58 is priced against $22.2 trillion in M2. Relative to liquidity, oil has not been this undervalued since the COVID crash.
The consequences are already unfolding.
US oil rigs have fallen 35 year over year. At $70 breakeven costs, shale producers are drilling themselves into bankruptcy at current prices. Every month of suppressed investment accelerates decline curves that drain 30 to 50 percent of well output in year one.
Meanwhile, 70 percent of global spare capacity sits in three nations. Saudi Arabia. UAE. Iraq. One disruption away from chaos.
The Rosneft and Lukoil sanctions announced quite recently are the first tremor.
The arithmetic is unforgiving:
Global depletion requires replacing 4 to 6 million barrels daily just to stand still. Investment is contracting. Production will follow. The surplus everyone sees today is building the shortage nobody expects tomorrow.
History says the repricing comes within 18 to 36 months. History says it comes violently.
Watch for rigs below 500 sustained. Watch for spare capacity below 3 million barrels. These are the signals that the turn has begun.
The denominator always wins.
Position accordingly.
open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

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One side believes in live and let live. That would be us. The other side believes in forcing us into submission to their twisted values, their unceasing indoctrination, their perverse way of life. The reason for the culture war is we won’t agree to these terms
Elon Musk@elonmusk
What do you think of the culture war?
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STOP. WATCHING. TV. NEWS.
American AF 🇺🇸@iAnonPatriot
@elonmusk And they wonder why nobody trusts the MSM. 😂😂😂
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@kaceysharon @akheriaty More vaxed people have died than un vaxed from Covid-19.
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