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Is predictit putting up Trump 2024 odds yet ?
I'd jump on that
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Dander Schauffele
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Dander Schauffele
@Dander_Bogaerts
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Pawucket Katılım Eylül 2018
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As of 12:26pm ET, Republicans have a 95% chance to control the House.
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That's a wrap for election season
49 states and the popular vote predicted
Republicans will hold in 2028 and grow their margins substantially. Could get over 40 states
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Rory McIlroy thinks Trump's election victory might be a good thing for finally getting the long awaited PGA Tour/LIV Golf/Saudi PIF deal done.
More on what the star golfer and president-elect have said on the issue @FOS ⛳⤵️
frontofficesports.com/mcilroy-trump-…
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When does Clarence Thomas announce he's stepping down ?
My guess is 5 minutes after the inauguration, but it could be today
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You get 17-1 odds on Harris being the next President
I kinda like those odds. Biden resigning for example isn't that crazy.
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@eyeslasho I guarantee you will call whatever Dem runs in 2028 the worst candidate ever
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@NewDealFan2 I bet California goes red in 2018
How bout that !
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@JonFeere Dems aren't even putting up a candidate in 2028. They're done.
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Kamala's loss is a direct hit on Gavin Newsom, her BFF from San Francisco. Any thought he had about running for higher office has been obliterated.
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The electoral map is shaping up to look exactly as 2016, but with Trump winning NV.
Ariel Cohen@ATCNY
Current Called Map at 1:08 PM Trump 301 Harris 226 One state is left to be called (AZ).
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@TrevvyTrev @TaritaC @joshtpm Don't buy it
If the economy tanks next year people will blame Biden because news shows will blame Biden
Politics is easy if you know what to look for
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this is the correct take I think. this isn't choosing the wrong veep or some tonal issue. this is a general rejection more or less everywhere. i think a majority of the country was angry about public emiseration and chaos coming out the pandemic and punished the party in power.
John Sides@johnmsides
My initial take on Trump's win: goodauthority.org/news/where-to-… His gains were widespread, so explanations should start with the broadest factors -- not with bespoke stories about states, cities, counties, and groups. The simplest explanation: party of unpopular incumbent loses. 1/2
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@joshtpm Why are they punishing Biden for Trump's mismanagement? We voted him out last time because of it.
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My initial take on Trump's win:
goodauthority.org/news/where-to-…
His gains were widespread, so explanations should start with the broadest factors -- not with bespoke stories about states, cities, counties, and groups.
The simplest explanation: party of unpopular incumbent loses.
1/2
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The swing to Trump in 2024 was quite uniform across the country. The swing away from him in 2020 was not.
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@BenjySarlin Oh this is ridiculous
WI, MI, and PA were all tight and continue to be tight
100,000 or so people in 3 states made the difference. What happened in the other 47 states is meaningless
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This is the big difference with 2024. 2016/2020, you could tell a story about two rapidly diverging Americas clashing, with each side eking out fleeting net wins at the margins. 2024 was just about every group (directionally) rejecting Dem WH/embracing Trump.
Barry Burden@bcburden
The swing to Trump in 2024 was quite uniform across the country. The swing away from him in 2020 was not.
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@mdpaulus @Nybigleague @KesslerJeff @IrishMarine94 @ECaliberSeven x.com/Dander_Bogaert…
Yeah I could have told you all this a week ago
Dander Schauffele@Dander_Bogaerts
@tangotiger @NateSilver538 New voters and "not voters" will make the difference The news is telling you who is going to win every day: This race will break Republican like it did in 1980 - the difference will be extraordinarily low turnout in traditionally strong Democratic areas
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@mdpaulus @IrishMarine94 @ECaliberSeven The economy was horrible in 2020
People voted Trump out because of it
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@johnrogersal This is 1968
If not for Watergate, Republicans would have won big from 1968-1992
I think Republicans win at least the next 5 Presidential elections by pretty large margins
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This is more like 1980.
2004 wasn't a re-alignment, wasn't a vibe shift. This election definitely is.
Kyle Kondik@kkondik
best comp for this election, at first blush, seems like 2004. Last R win in popular vote, and that was also the last time that conservatism seemed really ascendant, albeit a conservatism that's different from 20 years ago. Rs gained in Senate that year, House was kind of a wash
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Dander Schauffele retweetledi
@ECaliberSeven Trump will get 100% of what he wants
Pretty sure the filibuster is gone too
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Looking at the House, this is my best guess interpretation of what's left. Atm, the GOP's got 213 seats locked down, and are very clearly favored in at least 4 more.
Democrats would need to clean up with EVERY other seats to flip the House. Realistically, that's not happening.
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