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Barry Burden
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Barry Burden
@bcburden
Professor of Political Science @uwmadison. Director of @electionscenter. First gen college grad. Native Ohioan. Also https://t.co/nDLksfa2QQ
Madison, WI Katılım Haziran 2009
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@jwigderson Agreed - I didn’t mean to say that he is exiting for the purpose of handing of the nomination to Hong but it is likely to increase the share of the vote she earns in the way the 2022 exits boosted his.
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@bcburden Not quite the same. They left the race voluntarily. Barnes appears to be leaving one step ahead of the mob that would throw him out.
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Barnes clearing path for the frontrunner the way other Dems did for him just before the 2022 Senate primary
Mandela Barnes@TheOtherMandela
Thank you, Wisconsin.
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@synathroesmus Polling says both candidates will attract some of the Barnes supporters, so the gap between Crowley & Hong probably doesn’t change much, but that advantages Hong.
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A supposed benefit of a Barnes candidacy was he was was already vetted in his 2 statewide runs. Not clear why the news is dropping now. jsonline.com/story/news/pol…
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@bcburden Man. I was hoping it was just strategic coordination in the non-socialist bloc
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OK, Marquette is showing a slightly smaller lead for Hong but it’s more substantial than I expected
Barry Burden@bcburden
I predict that tomorrow’s Marquette poll will not show the same commanding lead for Hong.
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@jordo2323 That is in the eye of the beholder!
I was surprised that no one stood out as most polished or up on the facts. Doing so many forums together around the state probably smoothed out some of those differences among the candidates.
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A surprising debate in which frontrunner Hong was not targeted by the other Dems over her socialist positions or her electability. Brennan made a case that he could carry the ticket & Barnes pointed to his stateside runs, but Hong emerged unscathed wisn.com/article/wisn-1…
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The debate did have good substantive discussion of data centers, property taxes, & school funding. But almost nothing on the environment, gun violence, or even health care. Hong avoided scrutiny of her past positions & came off as completely credible — a win for her campaign.
Barry Burden@bcburden
A surprising debate in which frontrunner Hong was not targeted by the other Dems over her socialist positions or her electability. Brennan made a case that he could carry the ticket & Barnes pointed to his stateside runs, but Hong emerged unscathed wisn.com/article/wisn-1…
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@ChazNuttycombe I agree that it is a signal! And I believe Hong is the favorite. But I also suspect that young people most inclined to answer texts about politics could skew our surveys.
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I predict that tomorrow’s Marquette poll will not show the same commanding lead for Hong.
Politics & Poll Tracker 📡@PollTracker2024
State Navigate poll | 7/23-7/26 LV Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary 2026 🟦Francesca Hong 44% 🟦David Crowley 15% 🟦Mandela Barnes 14% 🟦Kelda Roys 4% 🟦Joel Brennan 4% 🟦Sara Rodriguez 4% (dropped out) 🟦Missy Hughes 1% (dropped out) Don’t know 13%
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@maxjlove Today’s survey was conducted solely through text messages, had over-eager participation from young people, and is not a probability sample. It’s useful but Marquette is the gold standard methodologically.
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@ajwagner86 @maxjlove It’s a quota sample that gets right balance of various demographic groups (race, age, etc.), a common technique nowadays but not a random draw from the population. I also want more info abt how phone numbers were acquired & likely primary voters identified statenavigate.org/wp-content/upl…
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@joelhaubrich I am aware. My observation is that Evers chose not to back anyone he had worked with closely as governor.
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@bcburden Wisconsin governors do not choose the Lt. Gov.
Shorewood, WI 🇺🇸 English
In retrospect it is noteworthy that Evers opted not to endorse any of the candidates who were part of his administration (Barnes, Rodriguez, Brennan, or Hughes)
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@DanRShafer A clear expert on the topic: usatoday.com/story/news/pol…
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The keynote speaker at the Republican Party of Wisconsin's State Convention this year:
Aaron Rupar@atrupar
Linda McMahon on good uses of AI in schools for students: "They spend the first couple of hours with AI and then the rest of the day they are implementing things they have learned. It's remarkable."
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Incredible own goal. Having pushed for an absurd period of early voting, Ds are now upset because last minute developments might mean early voters want to change their votes. But this possibility was one of the objections to long periods of early voting. Allowing votes to be "recalled" is not neutral. It introduces a new source of error and insecurity. The law on this is pretty clear. WEC did the right thing.
Matt Smith@mattsmith_news
Ann Jacobs, a Democrat and former chair of the elections commission who voted against the guidance banning re-voting if a candidate drops out: "Quite simply, we should never do this to voters. We shouldn't change the rules in the middle of an election."
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If there was any doubt before, today’s spate of new polls makes clear Hong is the leader.
The question is whether Dems endorse her or coordinate around Barnes or Crowley instead.
Absentee voting is already underway. “Early” voting starts Tues — same day as the only debate.
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