Daniel Pipes دانيال بايبس 🇺🇦

I offer quite a pessimistic analysis of the war. — The Islamic Republic of Iran is more determined and better armed than the U.S.-Israeli coalition expected — The destruction of civilian infrastructure, especially desalination plants, could devastate the Persian Gulf region for a long time.

I won my first prize (and $2) 70 years ago today with the publication in the @SFChronicle of my drawing "Birds Eating #Pinocchio's Nose Which Grew After He Told a Lie." Looking at it all these years later reminds me why I gave up drawing.

.@IlRiformista published an interview with me, "It's a U.S.-Israeli 'Special Police Operation': Understanding Events in and around Iran." An excerpt: "Three topics, all concerning public responses – Iranian, American, and Arabian – are key to whether the war turns out as a victory or defeat for the Western allies." danielpipes.org/22728/it-a-us-…

In an interview with @IndiaToday, I argue that Islamic Republic of Iran made a big mistake in attacking its neighbors, one that will plague the regime so long as it exists. danielpipes.org/22735/tehran-m…

How the Chinese Communist Party is destroying China, according to @GordonGChang: "The gloom in Chinese society is forcing down birth rates. 'In this country, to love your child is to never let him be born in the first place,' is a popular sentiment. In 2022, a young man who was told by officials that his defiant conduct would cause troubles for the next three generations of his family answered, 'We are the last generation, thank you.' The video of the threat and rebuff went viral."

The result of Iran's indiscriminate bombing of civilians, via the @KhaleejTimes: "On March 4, 2026, Elna Abdullah Hussein Nia, an 11-year-old Iranian girl, died in Kuwait after succumbing to injuries from shrapnel falling in a residential area as Iran continues to launch attacks." khaleejtimes.com/world/gulf/kuw…

The uprising in Iran in early January suggested an even greater insurgency would then follow on the U.S.-Israeli campaign to erode regime power. Yet, the populace now appears cowed into near-silence. This ranks as the most surprising and disappointing development of the past week. Without a new uprising, the regime will likely remain in power, less powerful but more awful than ever. (The picture below is from Jan. 10 in Tehran.)

A consensus seems to exist that Iran’s territorial integrity must be preserved. But why should it? Iran, like Russia, China, and Ethiopia, is a land empire; Persians make up no more than half its population. Why condemn the British, French, etc. sea empires as imperialism but accept the permanence of land empires? They should also be broken up. For more on the topic, see "Iran Is More than Persia: Ethnic Politics in the Islamic Republic," by @ProfBShaffer. danielpipes.org/20602/iran-is-…

Important observation, by @DStroul: "The United States and Israel may have different names for their latest military campaigns in Iran—Epic Fury and Rising Lion—but there is nothing separate about them. They constitute the first truly combined U.S.-Israeli military operation—and it is hard to overstate how groundbreaking the partnership is. … Indeed, the United States has not fought an adversary in a fully combined manner—dividing targets and working equally within a shared operational construct—since World War II." foreignaffairs.com/united-states/…

Three issues now dominate the future course of the war centered in Iran: 1. Will the Iranian populace rise up to overthrow its oppressors? 2. Will GCC states join the U.S.-led alliance or lobby to end the conflict? 3. Will the American electorate support an extended war or not?

Momentous: "Following the direct Iranian attacks on its territory, Saudi Arabia has abandoned its declared position of neutrality and now defines Iran as an existential threat and reserves the right to respond with military force. This shift is reflected in the harsh official condemnation of Tehran and even support for regime change in Iran expressed in the Saudi media." memri.org/reports/shift-…

Deep irony: "While the streets of Tehran and Mashhad are filled with citizens singing, lighting fireworks, and dancing in celebration, an alliance of democratic socialists, far-right influencers, and Islamist organizations has formed a unified front to condemn the collapse of the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism." jewishonliner.org/p/the-unholy-a…

Curious: — Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi ruled from 16 September 1941 to 11 February 1979, or 13,662 days, ending in his expulsion. — Supreme Leader Ali Khamene’i ruled from 6 August 1989 to 28 February 2026, or 13,355 days, ending in his assassination.

I explore possible outcomes of the U.S.-Israeli war on the Islamic Republic of Iran in the @Australian. Excerpts: — "One thing is certain: Donald Trump will declare victory against Iran." — "Bravo to Trump for finally responding to two generations of warfare against modernity and humanity. May he now not leave the battlefield and declare victory until the job is complete." danielpipes.org/22720/how-will…

Large crowds of men and women dancing and cheering, shouting, “Woohoo, hurrah.” Drivers passing by honked their car horns. Fireworks lit up the sky and loud Persian dance music filled the streets. Many residents, from their windows and balconies, joined in a chant of “freedom, freedom.” nytimes.com/2026/02/28/wor…

BREAKING: Saudi Arabia JOINS the USA in military operations against the Iranian regime. "This comes in the wake of Iran attacking the US base in Saudi Arabia." "The Iranians made a BIG MISTAKE by firing on Arab coalition partners."

One outcome of the current hostilities in Iran is for sure: Donald Trump will declare victory, no matter what, even if that leaves Israel in a very precarious position, even if that delegitimates the assertion of American power, even if that leaves the Iranian leadership in place and more embittered and aggressive than ever, even if that leaves many thousands of Iranians dead with nothing accomplished.