DannyDyer

Closed beta test for @factsdottrade is starting this week, and all I can think of is how many users will be happy they waited for public release. @polyfactual is always cooking.

Great write up from @PredictionDeskX Reality is most Polymarket liquidity rewards have been captured by people running custom bots. we're looking to make it easier for everyone else. predictiondesk.xyz/research-hub/n…

TODAY: We’re going LIVE on X with @totalistrading A newly minted Y Combinator startup building the first, full derivatives layer for prediction markets. The platform could fundamentally change how prediction market trading works. Joining us: co-founder @ImTheBigP 6PM EST.

On today's episode of The Interview, our guest is @thenarrator. He has a well known presence within the PM eco via his work @TrendleFi and many other areas! Should be a good one, no pun intended...Keep reading to hear what he has to say How did you get into Crypto? I’ve been in crypto for the past 9–10 years, since around the ETH ICO but I got more involved on a day-to-day basis in early 2017. There were very few projects at the time, so I spent a lot of hours on Reddit and various forums just trying to understand what it was all about The first thing that captivated me was the price action and watching those movements in real time, the opportunity to make life-changing money as a college student. That’s honestly all that mattered to me at first But the more I got involved in different groups and crypto channels, the more I realized crypto wasn’t just about making money, it was a technological revolution happening in real time. That shift in perspective pulled me deeper. I started paying attention to what was actually being built, what was being innovated and transformed across industries. That’s when crypto stopped being a trade for me and became something I wanted to build around When and How did you stumble upon Prediction Markets? I stumbled on prediction markets about two years ago through someone who later became my co-founder on a prediction markets project building on Bitcoin. At the time, I had taken a small break from crypto and I was extremely burned out from spending too much time online and grinding on projects nonstop This person introduced me to Polymarket and honestly, my first reaction was: This is just another gambling platform. But I’m the type of person who doesn’t rush to conclusions. I like to sit with things, examine them from different angles, look into the mechanics, understand how they work, and most importantly, think about the value they provide to people The more I dug into it, the more I saw that prediction markets weren’t gambling at all and that they were a fundamentally new way to surface truth and aggregate collective intelligence. That realization changed everything for me, and I’ve been deep in this space ever since How’d you describe Prediction Markets to anyone who’s just hearing about it? I’d describe prediction markets as a place where you put your money where your mouth is on real-world events. Instead of just having an opinion about whether something will happen you can actually trade on that opinion The beauty of it is that when money is on the line, people become a lot more honest and rigorous with their thinking. So what you end up with is a market that produces some of the most accurate real-time probabilities on what’s going to happen in the world. It’s like a crowdsourced truth machine, and it’s often more accurate than polls, pundits, or traditional forecasting models What single biggest advantage do Prediction Markets bring to the average person? Access to better information, That’s it. The average person is drowning in biased takes, clickbait headlines, and narratives pushed by people who have zero skin in the game. Prediction markets cut through all of that because the prices reflect what people actually believe when their own money is at stake. You don’t need to be a trader to benefit from that. Just pulling up a prediction market and seeing that an event is priced at 72% tells you more than reading ten op-eds. It democratizes access to high-quality information What market narratives do you actively trade or prefer to trade? I gravitate toward macro-political and geopolitical markets such as elections, policy decisions, regulatory moves, international conflicts. I am not the biggest trader but these are areas where I spend a lot of time doing research and forming views I also pay close attention to crypto-native markets because I am very big on crypto projects and have been for the past 9-10 years. Things like protocol launches, token listings, governance votes, and ecosystem milestones. Being embedded in CT gives me an edge on information flow and sentiment shifts that haven’t been fully priced in yet What’s your base thought process to approaching these trades? It starts with thesis formation. I’m constantly reading  news, CT, telegram groups and forming probabilistic views on outcomes before I even look at what the market says. You need a number in your head before you see the market price, otherwise you’re just anchoring to whatever everyone else thinks Once I have my own probability estimate, I compare it to the market. If there’s a meaningful gap say I think something is 80% likely and the market has it at 60%, that’s where I start looking for an entry Can you give an overview on what tools you use, what metrics you like to look at and what conditions prompt you into entering a trade? The two tools I mostly use for insights are Kalshinomics and future dot fun. Both are great because they consistently put out high-quality data and insights that help you form better views on markets. Kalshinomics in particular does excellent breakdowns of market dynamics and event-driven analysis, and future.funsurfaces a lot of interesting data points around traders and markets you won’t find elsewhere What are some of your worst losses and how did that impact how you trade? My worst losses came from being biased by other people or copy trading profitable wallets. At the end of the day, no one wins 100% of their bets. It’s better to enter into a position by doing your own research so that you become confident with the bet and size you’re putting behind your position What single biggest problem do you think Prediction Markets have atm? One of the biggest problem is that most platforms start too late in the user journey. They present you with a trading interface and expect you to already have a view, already understand probability, and already be comfortable putting money on an outcome. That’s a massive ask for most people. Besides that, there are other problems such as liquidity in markets and resolution How’d you reckon these problems then be solved? You solve it by building the top of the funnel that doesn’t currently exist. That means polls, opinion feeds, leaderboards, reputation scores and all the social infrastructure that lets people engage with predictions before they ever place a trade Think about how sports betting apps work. They don’t just show you a sportsbook, they give you news, stats, analysis, social features, and then seamlessly integrate betting into that experience. Prediction markets need the same playbook but adapted for a broader set of events The conversion funnel should look something like: read → react → track → score → follow → trade → share. You need to capture people at the opinion stage first and let them engage with events, form views, track how good their predictions are and then gradually convert them into traders. The platforms that figure this out will win The other piece is language. The industry needs to fully commit to the shift from “betting” to “trading.” That’s not just marketing, it’s a fundamental reframe that changes how regulators, institutions, and mainstream users perceive the product. The platforms that nail both the UX funnel and the narrative framing will be the ones that break through to mainstream adoption On the flip side, what’s an underexplored/underrated concept within Prediction Markets? Tokenized prediction market positions as DeFi collateral. This is something I’ve been thinking about a lot. Right now, when you take a position in a prediction market, that capital is locked and doing nothing else. But if those positions were tokenized and composable, you could use them as collateral for lending, as building blocks in structured products, or even as inputs for other prediction markets Imagine you hold a position that’s 90% likely to resolve in your favor. That’s essentially a near-certain future cash flow and there’s no reason you shouldn’t be able to borrow against it or use it productively elsewhere in DeFi. The capital efficiency gains would be enormous and would attract a completely different class of participants to PM platforms Where do you see the overall Prediction Market ecosystem in say, 12 months from now? Twelve months from now, I think we’ll see serious consolidation and differentiation. The platforms that are just reskinning the same trading interface with no unique value proposition will either die or get absorbed The winners will be the ones that either own a specific vertical (sports, politics, crypto) or build a genuinely differentiated UX that solves the funnel problem I mentioned. I also expect to see institutional interest pick up significantly. The US election cycle showed the world that prediction markets produce better signals than traditional polling, and that’s not something the financial and media establishment is going to ignore. We’ll likely see partnerships between PM platforms and major news organizations, and possibly even regulated PM products entering traditional finance. On the infrastructure side, I’m bullish on prediction market protocols becoming core DeFi primitives where any app can embed PM functionality without building from scratch What accounts would you recommend people follow to get familiar with Prediction Markets in general? For getting up to speed on PMs, I’d recommend following the official accounts of the major platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi to understand what markets are live and how the space is evolving Beyond that, follow traders who share their reasoning publicly, not just their wins. You learn a lot more from someone who explains why they took a position than from someone who just screenshots their P&L. On the research and commentary side, look for accounts that sit at the intersection of crypto and forecasting. People who think about prediction markets as an information tool, not just a trading venue. Nate Silver’s commentary is relevant too since he’s been bridging the traditional forecasting world and crypto-native PMs And honestly, just follow the markets themselves. Pick a few events you care about, watch how the odds move, and try to understand why. That’s the fastest way to build intuition Anything else you’d like to share? Just that prediction markets are still incredibly early. We’re at the stage where most people still confuse them with gambling, the same way people confused crypto with a scam in 2015 But the underlying thesis that markets are the most efficient mechanism for aggregating information and producing truth is one of the most powerful ideas in economics. It’s not a question of if prediction markets go mainstream, it’s when For anyone reading this who’s on the fence: start by just following markets. You don’t need to trade a single dollar. Watch how prices move around events, compare them to what the pundits are saying, and you’ll quickly see why this space matters. Once you see it, you can’t unsee it. And if you’re building in this space: focus on the user journey, not the trading interface. The technology is there, The liquidity is getting there, What’s missing is the bridge between someone having an opinion and becoming a trader

@michaeljburry He threw a guitar pick into the crowd at a show in mid-2000s and my friend got it. Always a good performance.

My favorite traders on Facts this week 🔥 tokens.facts.trade/marketplace

Many of the most profitable Polymarket traders enter positions at very similar buy ranges. In addition, wallets that are already whales tend to outperform the rest in terms of win/loss ratios. From our convo with @predexon founder @predexonIntern

facts run the world 🌐

some important things to consider when auto-market making on magic panel. 😊 Refreshes are every 60s, 5min or 10min

Me auto-magically providing @Polymarket liquidity on @factsdottrade

@polyfactual @factsdottrade A literal money printer? 👀

Also notice the new “Market Making” icon on the @factsdottrade terminal screenshot in the post below? 👀 Read here for more details on how to automate maker action and earn whilst you aren’t even looking More details in this tweet👇 x.com/polyfactual/st…

There’s currently $3.2m in volume on the “Will Bitcoin hit $1m before GTA 6” market… YES shares are trading at 48c and NO shares at 52c. For context - Btc is currently trading at $67.5k Keep in mind GTA 6 is scheduled to release by November 19, 2026. Ofc it’s possible there are delays to postponed the original date But surely, Btc doesn’t reach $1m in that timeframe?

This is how you automatically make markets on @Polymarket with @factsdottrade • Drag and drop any market from main page • Set your spread using the slider • Choose order size, buy ask-side shares before hand • See estimated rewards + fees update in real time • Pick your refresh rate (60s, 5m, 10m) On every refresh, the latest mid-price is fetched, and your orders automatically adjust. Then just chill 😎 your MM strategy executes itself in the background

Great article and a shout out to @KnightShift for testing this strategy utilizing Facts Trade!

LIVE with @predexon x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

@BrianWalkerUS @nicksortor “BrianwalkerUS 🇺🇸 “ Account based in Eastern Europe 😂 🫵

@nicksortor 3,364 kids. And they weren’t even looking for them. Think about that.

🚨 BREAKING: Tom Homan announces ICE has located 3,364 unaccompanied alien children in Minnesota so far that the Biden regime wasn’t even LOOKING for Great job by ICE 👏 Biden and Mayorkas were complicit in the worst child traffcking operation in US history.

Right now, the best thing about the news feed on @factsdottrade is its ability to surface abstracted markets with context. Some connections are very obvious; others can be quite crazy. 😂 it's funny to see where the AI finds relation. We're going to continue improving it, it's fully powered by FactsAI btw. For now, it's a good discovery engine.

People around the world are noticing @polyfactual and posting about it. 🌍 Shit is bearish, but imo (NFA) it won’t get much worse. 📈 When the market returns, we have a chance at making this a huge success. All the cards are lined up! ♠️♥️♠️♦️

Now you don't need to monitor X to get the news @factsdottrade built a news feed integrated with prediction markets This gives a huge advantage: you can discover new events to predict in context, not just by trading volume or traditional market metrics Also, if you want to see news in a specific region, the "Globe View" tab shows a globe with events tied to a specific geolocation I can't imagine how much time this feature will save me...

@AKHombre24 @MarioNawfal How would your wife feel about that last comment though?

@MarioNawfal We have got to do something about these White leftist women. They are by far the most dangerous and unhinged demographic the world has to date. Maybe it’s time to go back to pre-19th amendment times for a bit? Maybe? Just throwing out an option here. 🤷‍♂️

🇺🇸 Woman arrested for allegedly trying to burn down a Kansas warehouse after hearing rumors the owner was selling it to ICE for use as a detention center. Unhinged.