Danny Cowdry

@CyrusYari Curious to know how this goes, I'm still using my old pixel but never switched OS. Which model did you get?

@CyrusYari Where is reasonable for the Brit to go and work/build a business do you think

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This is from Fooled by Randomness, Taleb

@CyrusYari This is something I've thought about for quite a while, I know posting and being online is the 'right' thing to do from a business point of view but it just doesn't sit right with me, feel exactly the same

this is smthin i have a serious problem with & need to write an essay on. i get it that "build in public" & "share ur numbers & entire life" is "authenticity" & builds ur brand, but i have a hard time w this. we believe in old school ways & "evil eye" (not sCiEnCe, but Lindy)

@freddiebambo Outbound

GIRLFRIEND: "you're a professional texter making $40k/month" she's not wrong most businesses waste: - $10k/month on ads - $60k/year on sales reps - $5k/month on agencies linkedin has 60 million ceos you can DM directly problem: personalized messages take 15 min each my AI does it in 3 seconds: - finds prospects - researches them - writes personalized DM - sends 1,000+/month automatically 31% reply rate vs 3% industry 20-40 calls/month $700k in 2 years giving away: → video walkthrough → AI prompts → message templates → automation setup comment "OUTBOUND" must be following she still thinks i just text 😂

Sort of yes, in the sense of the degree of randomness. However a populous tends to swing over when they feel things are bad, which is also a pretty simple explanation

@CyrusYari Is it Lindy though... Via positiva

my 2cents on creatine: 1. ensure the creatine u buy is "creapure" -- only one that has strict purity & QC standards (German made), search amazon for "creapure creatine" & any of them w the creapure label on packaging. 2. i'm beginning to believe the hype of 7.5 - 10g per day.

@ganesh_iyyer @rorysutherland @grok Oh my goodness caterpillars seriously 🤣

@rorysutherland @grok what’s that on the ground?

Little bit of doomsday prepping. Got my Starlink Mini to run off solar panels. Roll on the endtimes.

This is reflexivity at work. Contrary and not to be confused with black swans

@donalt Could be less political and more to do with the fact all markets are relying more on liquidity expansion/contraction, so you could argue the stock market is also just displaying this hence greater correlation. Also larger mcap so less room for variance. Prob a ton of 'reasons'

This cycle more than any other relies on the American stock markets to do well Crypto has thrown its hat in the ring supporting Trump and closely aligning itself with him for better or worse Sad really, I preferred when we didn't trade an extension of the stock market

@LabourAlexB The trouble with this, is while it may be relatively accurate, it provides no insight as to the effectiveness of such money.. for ex. twitter could have put their costings under 'employment' even though we know 80% of those people were not adding any value. Same applies

Some people: "the government spends all our taxes on overseas aid and net zero" Me, checking where my taxes go on the HMRC account:

@ThomasSowell Skin in the game

100% true.

@donalt Yeah this is such a dumb argument. It's like saying 'the biggest flood that ever happened stopped 2ft short of my house, so therefore it'll be fine'. Well at some point that wasn't the biggest one... Then it got beaten. Relying on what is basically luck is an obviously terrible

The thing I hate most about MSTR is how I keep hearing "BTC has never had a period where you've had a 4 year period of bad price action so it'll be fine If I've learned one thing in trading it's that "This has never happened so it won't happen" is really really bad reasoning

@andrewglynch @bowtiedjconnor @nntaleb @naval Charlie Munger and Robert Greene I would assume are a couple others

@bowtiedjconnor @nntaleb @naval still a few more on the list who you might not call celebs but do at least have one or more published books

Decided to copy the habit of a particular Roman emperor. In his book Meditations, Marcus Aurelius spends the first chapter listing the people who have influenced him, and what he learned from each of them. I thought it was a great idea, so I decided to do the same. It’s fascinating, to realise all the people who influence your character, your thought patterns, your actions. All the tiny pieces of others that you’ve adopted and integrated into your own personality. So here is a list of lessons I’ve learned from other people I consider mentors and influences. Some of these people I’ve met; others, I’ve just read their books. Some are public figures, others are known only to a handful. I’ve only put their first name below, so I’ll leave it up to you to see which ones you think you can identify. (some are easy, others less so) -------------------- Joshua: the idea of “testable fluency in the basics.” Writing as a tool not just to showcase your work, but to document your life (and balancing that with family privacy). The ‘British’ method of measuring wealth via cashflow, rather than asset value. Tucker: how to write clearly. The importance of the first line. Turning me on to some remarkable examples of great writing. The value of a personal library of physical books. Operating with urgency and a bias towards action. Ryan: adopting reading as a way of life, particularly the classics. The person that introduced me to Meditations in the first place, among many, many other incredible books. The canvas strategy. The power of index cards, both as a to-do list method and as a commonplace book strategy. The importance of journaling. Deciding to deliberately seek and cultivate stillness in one’s life. Robert: the importance of seeing things how they really are, not as you simply want them to be. Reading far and wide, learning the timeless lessons of history. Being deliberate and thoughtful in your actions. Never outshining the master. Guarding your reputation with your life. How to persuade someone (by appealing to self-interest, never to duty or obligation). Nassim: the barbell strategy. Above all else, avoiding wipeout risk. Ensuring you have aligned incentives and skin in the game. Attempting not to be fooled by randomness. Cal: how to study properly, through active recall on index cards (index cards again! An invaluable tool), and the fact that intensity trumps quantity. In fact, this showed me that doing the right things in short bursts can be WAY more effective than grinding it out for hours. The call to not simply ‘follow your passion,’ but to treat one’s career like a craft, developing career capital and becoming so good they can’t ignore you. Do deep work. Spend time in the real world, with real people. Tim: as with Cal’s study strategies, the aim is to be effective, not efficient. Naval: impatience with action patience with results. Don’t just read new things all the time, the aim is to find the best 100 books and read them over and over again (the twist being that the best 100 books are different for everyone, so you need to find them). Always be reading something. Avoid anger — it’s a hot stone you hold in your hand while you wait to throw it at someone. The importance of owning equity. Learning to build and learning to sell. Charlie: be an autodidact. Read from all disciplines and steal the best ideas in each. The best business books aren’t business books, they’re biographies and history books. Don’t seek to be brilliant, but rather to avoid being stupid. The importance of keeping your word and living up to what you’ve promised to other people. Jimmy: the knowledge that you can reinvent yourself. If you don’t like your path, just pick another one. Marcus: to make time for yourself. To stop being pulled in every direction by the whims and priorities of others. Lucius: the shortness of life. How to avoid being caught up with the madness of crowds. Facing up to — and indeed practising — what you’re afraid of, to show yourself that it’s not that bad. Damian: showed me that being good at one or two tools (in his case, Microsoft Excel and a couple of other things) is enough to build a successful career, as long as you always keep learning. Dean: a real-world example of testable fluency in the basics, quizzing me and drilling me on the fundamentals until I knew them by heart. Mike: how to manage up, and across. The importance of quality, in particular on first impressions. For taking a chance on me when you did. How to hold others to account: get buy-in on the plan, get crystal clear agreements up front, then relentlessly measure performance and follow up. Andy: getting the details right. Pride in your work. Showing me that part of a leader’s job is to shield your team from distractions, nonsense or internal politics. Steven: the mentality of turning pro. Giving me the language to talk about The Resistance, and how to face it. James: how to build your idea muscle, and adopting a daily practice to do so. How to blend ideas together (‘idea sex’) to come up with new and novel approaches. Austin: how to steal like an artist. Julie: strategic job-hopping, adopt the mentality of getting everything you can out of a role, and then idenitfying the right time to move on. Angela: how to have fun! How to be open, friendly, with deep empathy and genuine friendship for those around you, and how to open your home to those on your team. Emma: balance, how to be demanding and hold incredibly high standards, while also being liked (or at least respected). Being generous with your time for those early in their career, and showing them how to actively manage their career. Matt: the importance of focusing on the main thing. The power of relentless, daily progress towards that one goal, come what may. -------------------- That’s not a fully exhaustive list — there are plenty of other things I’ve learned from other family, friends, etc — but as two of these mentors would remind me: you don’t have to share absolutely everything, and in fact, you should always say less than neces--

@GunjanJS @WSJmarkets Could it not then, be easily argued these matters offer more noise than signal?

GDP grew 7.6% over Trump’s four years in office. It has grown 11.8% so far during Biden’s tenure At this point, it looks as if GDP under Biden will post the strongest growth of a presidential term since former President Bill Clinton’s final four years in office @WSJmarkets @justin

@nntaleb Pinarello fan clueless honestly. High quality lightweight carbon bikes are negligible in difference, some large biases and marketing twoddle at play in the modern bike industry imo.

This cyclist friend of mine who usually asks me to post inquiries on X* (he is shy) was told by the gynecologist of the 2nd wife of his dentist's music teacher that Pinarello makes a "big" difference over a carbon Trek Domane. My friend doesn't believe so. Correct? *Ex Twitter

@sebs_tweets Oh no.. can't believe Stephan Hawking has made that list, not sure if it's completely fair on Kahneman

The Suckers Shelf

@osf_rekt Yep definitely crossing my mind, would not be surprised at all to see something like this go through. Plus the 'tax against the rich' type of narrative fits nicely

@stack__sats Interesting, never even considered them

@stack__sats Favourite trail shoes at the moment?