darryl abbott
653 posts
Biophysical mathematics, Quadratic cliffs and acreage substitution. A good read. In this case we can learn a lot from China
#nitrogentrap
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡@shanaka86
JUST IN: The most irreversible consequence of this war is not happening in Tehran. It is happening in a barn in Iowa. A farmer is standing over a kitchen table looking at two seed catalogues. One is corn. One is soybeans. Corn needs 180 pounds of nitrogen per acre. Nitrogen costs $610 per ton on the CBOT March futures settlement as of yesterday, up 35 percent in a month. Soybeans fix their own nitrogen from the atmosphere through root bacteria called rhizobia. They need nothing from the Strait of Hormuz. The farmer is choosing soybeans. Millions of acres are choosing soybeans. And once the planter rolls into the field, the choice cannot be reversed until next year. USDA projected corn at roughly 94 million acres for 2026, down from 98.8 million. Soybeans at 85 million, up from 81.2 million. Those projections were published February 19, before urea surged past $683 at New Orleans. The actual shift will be larger. USDA Prospective Plantings reports March 31. By then the seeds will be in the ground. This is the transmission channel the world is not watching. A 21-mile strait enforced by provincial commanders with sealed radio orders just rewrote the planting economics of 90 million acres of the most productive farmland on Earth. Not through sanctions. Not through diplomacy. Through the price of a single molecule that corn cannot grow without and soybeans do not need. Now follow the cascade. The Renewable Fuel Standard mandates 15 billion gallons of corn ethanol annually. That consumes roughly 43 percent of the entire US corn crop. The mandate is set by the EPA. It does not flex when corn acres shrink. It is inelastic demand consuming a fixed share of a declining supply. When supply tightens against a fixed mandate, the remaining corn reprices upward. Corn above $5 per bushel compresses every margin downstream. The US cattle herd stands at 86.2 million head, a 75-year low per USDA NASS. Poultry and pork operations face compression from higher corn prices. Feed is the single largest cost in livestock production. When feed reprices, protein reprices. When protein reprices, every grocery shelf in America absorbs the increase. This is the protein cascade. Corn to feed to meat to eggs to dairy to the checkout counter. Each link tightens because the link before it tightened. The originating cause is a urea molecule that cannot transit a strait because a provincial commander’s sealed orders say it cannot. The farmer did not start this war. The farmer cannot end it. The farmer responds to the price on the screen and the biology of the two crops in front of him. Corn needs the molecule. Soybeans do not. At $610 the arithmetic is settled. The planter rolls. The season is locked. Israel just authorised the assassination of every Iranian official on sight. The US has spent $16.5 billion. South Pars is burning. The Fed is holding rates because oil inflation will not break. Gold touched $5,000. Bitcoin is bleeding. China is running exercises near Taiwan. Sri Lanka shut down on Wednesdays. And underneath all of it, a man in a barn is making the decision that determines whether four billion people pay more for food this year. He has never heard of the Mosaic Doctrine. He does not know what a sealed contingency packet is. He knows what nitrogen costs. And he is planting soybeans. Full analysis - open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
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Does anyone know where you can get this hose from the fan to the metering unit?
PVC hose isn't flexible enough, wire ribbed duct just blows out & the dealer will only supply 20m...I need 2
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Just driving a machine up the Albany highway… I have NEVER seen it so quiet. Rural Australia is being strangled
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@HoolyMcg @BarryGr66 @trout_86 Mine was fixed out of Bunbury will ring this morning to see if I can change product
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@Darrylabbott4 @BarryGr66 @trout_86 So no MAP based product available from csbp ? Even fixed contracts ?
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Curious to see if anyone else has had their contracted urea price increased by 42 percent ?
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@HoolyMcg @Darrylabbott4 @trout_86 CSBP. was told an option was to pick a locally produced product to replace the the MAP based ones
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Riverside Roadhouse hasn’t let us down with the fuel gouge 😂
Normally the dearest by far anyway.. $2.80 for diesel
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@Tedthekelpie @BarryGr66 @bjw68 @andrewdunx @cosfarming @HoolyMcg @hasselljpb @cbhgroup @Jusakstud Yep both going backwards to the closest port Bunbury
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@Darrylabbott4 @BarryGr66 @bjw68 @andrewdunx @cosfarming @HoolyMcg @hasselljpb @cbhgroup @Jusakstud What CBH options do you have? Up to narrakine? Down to koji north?
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If @cbhgroup genuinely wanted to protect itself it would convert to a trading cooperative. Wheat wars: Farmers on alert as Macquarie circles grain giant theaustralian.com.au/business/agrib…
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@Tedthekelpie @BarryGr66 @bjw68 @andrewdunx @cosfarming @HoolyMcg @hasselljpb @cbhgroup @Jusakstud They have given up here Sam heard Darkan Bokal qualeup to be be pulled down soon
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@BarryGr66 @bjw68 @andrewdunx @cosfarming @HoolyMcg @hasselljpb @cbhgroup @Jusakstud I saw bits of the old line at the wedgecarrup fire last year. Just sleepers in the middle of a paddock
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@todd_venning @Tedthekelpie @BenHobley @Glenn_SoilAgro @farmersgrowit @DPIRDbroadacre @70m Anyone know of these guys in Victoria? Terranova and there results
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QME
Harvesting bentils on an off soil type. Trying to get wet acidic buckshot gravels to perform.
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darryl abbott retweetledi
@artinore @mxdondevivo Will be there in 3 weeks so following with interest 😢
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A very elaborate update on the area in and around the Philippines.
This area has gone through 2 stages of decrease in earthquakes. You can actually see the locking/tightening. Area red around the Philippines stopped getting M8+ since 1977, then since 1996, the 7.8+ stopped too!
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@timmort_ righto then...more details if you can, that looks great
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Iam sorry I don’t post much but this is giving me the shits
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