Dave Metz

Just posted a video @ Lefrak Center At Lakeside Prospect Park instagram.com/p/ztYzByoSYu/

@BenCrellin Resuscitating this old thread - any sense as to when the DGW will be announced? And has your thinking changed on timing? I’ve held in WC in large part bc I’m envisioning spiking 3 MCI/2 BRE in a GW19 WC.

Here's the schedule for all Premier League teams up to Blank Gameweek 26. Man City & Brentford will Blank in GW18 and they're likely to Double in GW20. Free Hitting in GW18 might be a good option for some FPL managers. link to my schedule spreadsheet: fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/crellin-fpl-ca…

@scottjwillis Hey there - how should I understand Brentford? They’re 2nd on FBRef by XGD and they had more incomings than outgoings. Why such a degradation in expectation? I don’t think their schedule was SO GOOD to merit any expectation they’d be 2nd in XGD? Help! 😊

The ratings also include net spend from transfer market so that is why Forest with big Johnson sale, and Brighton with big Caicedo sale have declined even with on the pitch performance as positives

Premier League Simulation - 2023-09-05

@BenCrellin Okay I play VERY occasionally and, yes, this is amazing. Are you playing for lowest EV of guesses or are you playing for home runs like this score would imply?

I'll delete this tweet soon, but I just want someone who's still playing Octordle to tell me I'm amazing

Daily Octordle #346 7️⃣6️⃣ 9️⃣3️⃣ 5️⃣8️⃣ 2️⃣4️⃣ Score: 44 octordle.com/v2/daily

@JustinThomson @iamnotthelotus What a delight to have been notified re: this exchange. Hey you two 👋

Wait, what?

@BenCrellin I made the move before Son’s price rise / before Klopp’s presser. Had I known I probably would’ve gotten Jota too. 👏

F**k it. The stats and odds say Jota is a better option than Son this week. Firmino could be out for so long that his absence comes close to overlapping with AFCON. I've pulled the trigger on Mount to Jota. 2 FTs in GW12 and I plan on doing Vardy & Raphinha to Wilson & Son.

If I did Mount to Jota this week then I'd have two FTs next week and could do either... a) Vardy & Raphinha to Wilson & Son b) Antonio & Raphinha to Broja & Son c) Vardy & Dias to Kane & James But I still think I prefer using my 2 FTs to get Son this week 🤔

@FPLGeneral Saw this notification and got super worried about Mbuemo!

Big blow for Brentford.

@MC_of_A @ElstonGunn_ This is the correct take

@ElstonGunn_ Fatherhood’s a wild (terrible initially, great eventually) ride!

@k_rybaczuk @BenCrellin What points prediction models do you use? Curious!

@BenCrellin Got it. Did the same so Livramento and Hwang points stayed on bench too. I think it's quite unlucky with all these 1-pointers of Raphinha, Mbeumo and Vardy. But the decision was good anyway.

I'm very happy with how I did this Gameweek. 108 points and a big green arrow. 34 points on my bench but realistically the only close call that I got wrong was starting Mbeumo instead of ESR, which cost me 12 pts.

@BenCrellin Also could enable a jump to KDB next week, potentially. Though not being on pens is 😐

I might just do Lukaku to Toney and then decide on Kane/Son/Vardy next week. Antonio to Vardy in GW 10/11 would facilitate Mount to Son in GW12.

@BenCrellin @Fpl_Juste My biggest regret on wildcard - going James over Chilwell - on early returns 😇

@Fpl_Juste I went for Chilwell on Wildcard because his attacking stats were better and he's less likely to get 1 pointers off the bench than James. I don't mind if Chilwell plays zero mins in half the games because my bench is decent

By GW10 we could have 7 players who are almost good enough FPL assets to justify 'season keeper' status: TAA Dias Salah Raphinha Mbeumo Toney Antonio For the other 3 outfield players in your regular starting XI, you could play the fixture swings (e.g CHE to TOT/MUN after GW11)

@ElstonGunn_ I’m unclear if Camavinga would improve the First XI, but he’d at least provide good CM depth and would very likely be a XI replacement as soon as next year?

@claudianoel @CammyLizz Good! Can’t believe any professionally mobile human would forego an NYC opportunity 🤩

@CammyLizz @DaveMetz help pls (also, yea, you got to her head!)

@fredbenenson Yes. Very yes/happened to me. instagram.com/p/CQjWmmur9Uo/…

Have there been any confirmed stories of vaccinated people infecting other vaccinated people? Or even estimates of how often this happens? A week ago I was reading quotes from epidemiologists that “it’s fine to hang out *unmasked* indoors as long as everyone is fully vaxxed”

@cnglasser @everylotnyc 60. Buttons block away!

@everylotnyc @DaveMetz ???

@MC_of_A I bristled at that too. That apology was pretty milquetoast too 😒

@BenCrellin What’s RMT stand for?

@fplreview @sertalpbilal @DDBattery @uncertainty_pod I've planned transfers for each plan up to GW29 and added up how many points I'm projected to score (as an average of your projections and RMT)} Both plans score the same if there is a DGW28 If there isn't a DGW28, plan A scores 283 and plan B scores 274

Following the discussion on @uncertainty_pod podcast, I added a new optimization model to maximize expected minutes using @fplreview predictions. I have two potential WC plans, one maximizes GW points, the other one maximizes expected minutes (over 8 GWs, multiobj, 2-step)

@TheM_L_G I summarily disliked the Rory Smith article. And it’s still true that he smashed XG in that “bad” Dortmund year. So likening this “bad” year to that one...well, yeah, he got football’d a ton both seasons.

Seems like conventional wisdom is beginning to turn against Klopp. And...I would not follow that convention.

@TheM_L_G Cool

Cool

Stomping a good Tottenham side and a very (?) good West Ham - who were both credible threats to us finishing Top 4 - buoys me considerably. They weren’t 6-pointers, those games, but they weren’t not, either.

Came here on Twitter dot com to check in on the LFC fanbase. Maybe people know this - which is attenuating any concern - but Brighton are sneaky good! This loss is yet another where we out-XG’d the opponent, but we’re running on fumes! This is fine and we’re prob okay for Top 4.