Zachary Donnini@ZacharyDonnini
CA Governor’s Race: Where things stand
At this point, I view Steve Hilton to be clearly favored.
The cleanest way to frame the race is this: if VoteHub’s current turnout estimates are right, and if late mail in every county keeps breaking the way it has so far, Steyer would win the remaining ballots by 4.2 points. This would still leave Hilton winning by 2.0 points, with a roughly 192,000-vote margin. Steyer needs to win the remaining trail by 11.1 points to catch him.
There are reasons to think the trail could keep improving for Steyer. In major counties with at least 20,000 mail ballots counted, his day-to-day improvement against Hilton has generally moved left:
Los Angeles: +13.3, +15.3, +18.7
San Diego: +13.2, +16.7
Orange: +10.0, +11.4, +8.4
San Bernardino: +5.7, +2.7
Riverside: -1.2, +4.7, +2.2
Santa Clara: +13.8, +15.0, +16.0
San Francisco: +15.2, +19.2
Solano: +9.5, +10.0, +10.2
San Mateo: +14.7, +15.2
So yes, the trail is generally getting better for Steyer. But it is not getting better fast enough in the major counties to make it easy to believe the remaining vote will be 7 points bluer than what we have seen over the last few days.
Our current fairway estimate does assume some continued leftward movement. Even then, Steyer wins the rest of the trail by about 6.7 points, which would still leave Hilton ahead by 1.4 points.
So how did Steyer get into this position?
He is doing well in the trail San Diego, Los Angeles County, and the Bay Area. But he is struggling almost everywhere else. The biggest weakness for Democrats, including Steyer, has been in the Central Valley and Inland Empire.
That was somewhat expected in the early vote, given that these are heavily Hispanic areas where Biden performed well in 2020 but where Democrats slipped in 2024. But the late-mail trail has also been weaker than Democrats needed, and when it has improved, much of the gain has gone to Becerra rather than Steyer.
Steyer is getting what he needed from his strongest regions, with the Bay Area and Los Angeles moving even further in his direction. But he is not getting enough from Hispanic-heavy areas, which means the big urban counties would have to shift unrealistically far left to make up the gap.
The completed or nearly completed counties are also not especially encouraging for Democrats. Republicans are at 36.3% in Solano, which is almost fully reported, compared to Trump’s 33.7% there in 2020. In Kings, Republicans are at 59.7%, compared to Trump’s 54.9% in 2020.
That is limited data, but it suggests California may not be on track to match Biden-era Democratic margins across much of the state. It is hard to see Democrats matching Biden’s numbers in places like Kern if they are running closer to Harris in Kings.
That said, primaries can produce weird turnout effects. Democrats really need the more white, liberal parts of the state, which Solano and Kings are not, to show extremely strong late Democratic turnout.
For Steyer, that means tomorrow’s numbers likely need to move meaningfully left: Los Angeles above 20, Orange closer to 15, Santa Clara around 18, and similar improvements elsewhere.
Why does Steyer still have a chance?
Because California late mail can be volatile, and the remaining vote in the biggest urban counties with more White liberals could still get substantially bluer.
Turnout isn't certain. Steyer would love some eventual turnout in blue areas to be higher than my estimates right now, but it isn't likely.
But the core issue remains: Steyer is not doing well enough in the trail outside places like San Francisco, Alameda, Santa Clara, and Los Angeles. And we have a couple completed counties coming in where it doesn't look great for Dems. He still has a path, but it is narrow, and Hilton remains clearly favored.
One note on turnout estimates: Giving it a glance, VoteHub’s current estimate is a mix of DDHQ and the AP. We are closer to DDHQ in assuming roughly 40,000–50,000 more outstanding Alameda ballots than AP, while we are closer to AP on total expected turnout, at about 9.56 million statewide.
