david tiplea

$ASTS: Quote of the day "Starlink's direct-to-cell capabilities are pretty shitty right now." - Former Product Growth Strategy Lead @ Starlink

@CKCapitalxx @CyrusDeris And in time the Margin of $ASTS is expected to be north of 90% ( EBITDA margin )

Netflix has 301 million subscribers paying an average of $17 a month. That is $5 billion in recurring revenue every single month. Same infrastructure. Margins expanding every quarter because the cost base barely moves while the subscriber count grows. That is the $ASTS model from space. When the constellation is built $ASTS sits above AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, TELUS and 50 plus carrier partners as the infrastructure layer that makes coverage possible everywhere on earth. The carriers bill the customer. $ASTS collects a cut on every connected subscriber every single month. Over 3 billion potential subscribers already on partner networks today. Here is where it gets interesting. AST has shared survey data showing that a significant portion of users would pay for satellite connectivity as an add-on to their existing plan. Run the math at even conservative adoption rates. At 30% of partner network subscribers opting in that is 900 million paying subscribers. At $5 per month per subscriber that is $4.5 billion in monthly recurring revenue. $54 billion annually. On fixed infrastructure that does not get more expensive as more people connect. At 50% adoption that is 1.5 billion subscribers. $7.5 billion per month. $90 billion in annual recurring revenue. Netflix generates $40 billion a year and trades at a $400 billion market cap. $ASTS at 30% adoption would be generating more annual revenue than Netflix does today. On a fixed satellite infrastructure that is already being launched right now. The carriers already have the customers. The FCC already approved the service. FirstNet is already granted. The only thing left is getting enough satellites in orbit.

Amazing news😻 $ASTS

👏👏👏👏

$ASTS: 🚨Clear Street Reiterates Buy and $115 Price Target FCC Approval Clears Path for Commercialization, Reinforcing ASTS'S Carrier Partnership Model Summary Following the setback tied to the BlueBird 7 launch, the FCC has approved AST SpaceMobile's application to modify authorization for its low Earth orbit satellite system. We view this as the last key US regulatory approval needed and highlight two takeaways for investors: + While 700 MHz and 800 MHz spectrum is owned by MNOs, FCC approval was required in addition to carrier consent. + FCC approval provides legal authority to use premium spectrum from space, supports scaling the constellation, and strengthens the foundation of the carrier partnership model. Valuation: We maintain our Buy rating and $115 price target, implying 20x 2029E EBITDA of $2.0B and ~12x revenue. Our DCF cross-check values the business including spectrum at $108 per share. Key Points FCC Approval Expands LEO Authorization: The FCC approved AST SpaceMobile's modified authorization, allowing it to deploy up to 248 LEO satellites for direct to device service using 700 MHz and 800 MHz spectrum in partnership with carriers such as Verizon FCC Approval Validates Spectrum Access: Although low band spectrum is owned by carriers like Verizon and AT&T (NYSE: T, NC), FCC approval is required for ASTS to use it. This ruling validates existing leasing agreements and removes a key regulatory barrier. Low Band Spectrum Enables Core Technology: The 700 MHz and 800 MHz bands are critical to ASTS's model, enabling connectivity on unmodified smartphones due to superior range and penetration versus higher frequency spectrum. With FCC approval, this terrestrial spectrum can now be used for space-based connectivity and is expected to be key to overall service quality. Supports MNO Partnership Model: The approval allows MNOs to extend coverage via satellite as part of their existing networks, enabling seamless service outside traditional coverage areas and formalizing agreements with partners. Strengthens Competitive Position vs SpaceX: With SpaceX (private) already operating a large direct-to-device constellation, we believe some carriers are cautious about long term disintermediation risk should they pursue subscribers directly. In our view, this development reinforces ASTS's partner focused model as an alternative.

🇺🇸 Thank you FCC Chairman @BrendanCarrFCC for driving American innovation and global leadership forward. 👏

FCC Grants AST SpaceMobile Commercial Authority to Deliver Direct-to-Device Cellular Broadband from Space Advancing Nationwide, Resilient Cellular Broadband Connectivity in the United States businesswire.com/news/home/2026…

Now that we have a more complete view, we wanted to provide an update on our NG-3 mission. While we are pleased with the nominal booster recovery, we clearly didn't deliver the mission our customer wanted, and our team expects. Early data suggest that on our second GS2 burn, one of the BE-3U engines didn’t produce sufficient thrust to reach our target orbit. Blue Origin is leading the anomaly investigation with FAA oversight to learn from the data and implement the improvements needed to quickly return to flight operations. We have been in steady communication with the team at AST SpaceMobile, we appreciate their partnership, and we’re looking forward to many flights together.

UBS MAINTAINS $85 PRICE TARGET ON AST SPACEMOBILE A setback with BlueBird 7 being de-orbited Financial impact measured but news likely to weigh on sentiment During the New Glenn 3 mission, AST announced that BlueBird 7 (its second Block 2 satellite) was placed into a lower than planned orbit and will be de-orbited with the altitude being too low to sustain operations. The financial impact to ASTS is likely measured with the cost of the satellite expected to be recovered by insurance and business plans contemplating 90+ satellites over time (vs. 6 commercial satellites in orbit today). That said, we believe the success of Blue Origin’s New Glenn vehicle (which can fit the most Block 2 satellites) is key to meeting year-end deployment targets and management’s 2027 revenue goal, and expect the uncertainty to weigh on investor sentiment initially pending greater clarity. Targets reiterated; Schedule more compressed ASTS reiterated its target of orbital launches every one to two months on average with multiple launch providers during 2026 with ~45 satellites in orbit by year-end. The schedule is more compressed however and we expect conviction to be lower as investors digest whether to view these developments as a temporary one-off vs. a longer delay (Blue Origin indicated assessment is ongoing). AST is now in production through BlueBird 32 vs. 29 in early March and indicated BlueBird 8–10 will be ready to ship in ~30 days. Valuation: Neutral Rated PT is based on 16x 2030E EBITDA, discounted back at 14%. $ASTS

$ASTS Market is totally over-reacting again. The orbit alignment error had nothing to do with AST Space mobile. People react without understanding the total situation. 1. New Glenn rocket failed not AST sat. 2. AST has insurance for these cases. 3. One of hundreds of sats in the planned constellation means nothing. For the reference: Hundreds of Starlink satellites have failed after launch, due to orbital decay, malfunction, or solar‑activity‑related issues. So this is normal in the satellite business but some people just don't seem to understand it.

The first stage was nominal, and the booster came back beautifully. We separated and turned on as expected, but the launch vehicle second stage did not place BlueBird 7 on its intended orbit. We are on Satellite 32 and plan to ship BB8 to 10 in approximately 30 days and continue to target ~ 45 satellites in orbit this year.

Here we go. @AST_SpaceMobile #asts #cisneros

$ASTS: +1 Very poorly handled from @blueorigin and their execs @davill @torybruno.

It seems kinda tone deaf of Blue to be celebrating launch and booster landing when they should be publicly apologizing to their customer for partial failure and indicating their commitment to making things right. Reminding me of Astra PR right now.

Perhaps it’s the relaxing nap I had, or my general gratefulness to be alive after listening to Ashley Beedle’s Mahavishnu, but my reflections on today are: 1). Seeing a super motivated $ASTS team clearly seeing their operations and opportunity scale. They see that they have pocket aces. Market might disagree from time to time, but they are undeterred. 2). An astounding feat of engineering with Blue Origin almost nailing a perfect mission. $ASTS has a front row seat to supplement its SpaceX launches with the most exciting launch system on the market 3. An $ASTS satellite, which was a spare for FM-1 and not the go forward model, deploy and come alive. Sadly it’ll will deorbit, but there’s nil financial impact and it served an important important purpose for scaling operations and shaking down processes So maybe I’ll have a market to market tomorrow that some would say is “large” to “quite large?” That takes some mental adjustment and I was a bit morose earlier as I absorbed that realization. But I put my big boy pants back on and channeled it to just train harder for my inevitable cage match with Phillip Lyle, who some say is a weapons grade loser… but I’m sure he’s a nice guy. I’ve been down 90% before. This is nothing and the company is in excellent shape. It’s a venture capital risk that trades publicly. That takes mental strength to own. Like I said, many will make emotional decisions tomorrow and that’s too bad. If investing were easy, everyone would do it.

🍎We’re stuck with NB but need to keep our emergency SOS selling pitch running. 🅰️Well your spectrum is compatible with our broadband satellites Block3 launching 2027. 🍎It’s not really ours and they won’t sell it without the satellites. 🧶🐈‍⬛ 1/

$ASTS: Amazon is up $115B in market cap in reaction to the Globalstar deal announcement🤯 We are so early

$ASTS: The pieces are falling into place Google is a strategic investor Apple is testing with AST Meta is testing with AST STAY FOCUSED™️

*IRAN: DRAFTING PROTOCOL WITH OMAN FOR HORMUZ STRAIT TRAFFIC Oil dumps

@JoeyRey5 Yes. Don't know why

Anyone else just see $ASTS drop to $94 for about 10 secs then shoot back up to $113??