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@SkeleCap I have so many thoughts on this, but I'll leave it like this. The "I told you so's" are going to be terrible because we are all going to lose...hope I'm wrong
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Bagholder Capital
14.4K posts
Bagholder Capital
@David_Doran7
Momentum Trader, Investor, Sports fan, bulldog apologist
Katılım Ekim 2011
614 Takip Edilen618 Takipçiler
Nick is very smart. I have been in denial on memory and... yea I think its capitulation time.
COATUE@coatuemgmt
Memory is the new bottleneck. Nick Gagnet, Coatue Sector Head, on the AI infrastructure shift and why memory demand could 5x in 5 years.
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@ResearchQf I’m staying, you been very generous with your thoughts
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I'll be moving my account to private soon and scaling it back significantly over time. Before then, I want to post a few reflections and personal musings on AI and investing that have been on my mind.
The breadth and depth of change are just extraordinary, and the pace is intensifying. There's more to think about each month as complexity multiplies, but less time to do justice to any stock, technology or theme. While I expect to post intermittently, I hope a smaller space will let me discuss ideas more casually and freely.
I've genuinely appreciated meeting people here and the conversations we've had. I'm grateful to those I've learned from and for those who were kind enough to engage from time to time even when I didn't engage in return. I'd be glad if you choose to stay - no need to respond or like.
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@citrini @RunPlutus I have questions about this. Do the baskets rebalance every time Citrini rebalances the baskets? How does implementation work with baskets that stocks from different countries? Do you round out the exposure when their exchanges open??
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Citrini is now live on @RunPlutus. The Plutus platform allows users to automatically invest in model portfolios.
runplutus.com
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@citrini @RunPlutus Been waiting for something like this!
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@dampedspring Only those in the inner circle win in Corruption Capitalism. Hence VEU >SPY since the inauguration
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@David_Doran7 Unfortunately gave it away on the ups but dinner money secured
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@fabknowledge It's only degrossing if people are forced to unwind positions, not if they are reavaluating the earnings growth trajectory.
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Gotta love how the largest insider sales in 10 years in $GS happened 2 weeks prior to all this
Arun S. Chopra CFA CMT🧐@FusionptCapital
ok $GS
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@TheShortBear Everybody in this admin is going to get tarnished with the trump stink. Like Kamala with Biden
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If JD plays this right he might be getting his key to the presidency.
He has been quietly against this war, more than Rubio and if he closes it off for a US win while staying out of the collateral damage done it might just work.
Got to wonder if that’s by design to get him there too.
The Spectator Index@spectatorindex
BREAKING: Iran has expressed preference for negotiating with US Vice President JD Vance, according to CNN report.
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@dampedspring Market spinning around trying to price the probability of the left tail vs the stupidity of our leaders.
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@TheShortBear We(not me) elected morons to run the country.
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We just can’t seem to help ourselves live normally for 5min.
Tarrifs, shutdown, alienating partners in Europe, war or attacks across multiple regions…
Pure instability for over a year now.
Worst part is if we just focused on technology and would simply stop getting involved in foreign policy we would have avoided 90% of all this mess.
US had the chance to be nr1 in AI, Crypto and Cloud and lead to reduce the deficit but instead we are spending billions overseas.
So so frustrating, especially given everything that the admin ran on was done the exact opposite way.
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@Citrini7 The last time oil was going parabolic and payrolls were shrinking was......2008. So that's fun
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It gets harder to do this when oil starts ripping. Has historically been a “the cycle is close to being over” signal
Citrini@citrini
I think the entirety of making money in the late cycle is just convincing yourself that it’s not over because the process of it being over takes like 18-24 months?
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An inflationary war after multiple months of job losses because the President is a retarded pedophile and needs to cover it up.
Again, a lot of you voted for this.
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Old enough to remember that a lot of you voted for this.
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@CommerceGov @ResearchQf Nice way to scoop up some weekly options….anything for a buck
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The Commerce Department is committed to promoting secure exports of the American tech stack.
We successfully advanced exports through our historic Middle East agreements, and there are ongoing internal government discussions about formalizing that approach.
Today there was reporting that we were returning to the AI diffusion rule. We will not. It was burdensome, overreaching, and disastrous.
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Bagholder Capital retweetledi
tbf points is kind of silly, 1000 pt drop under obama would have been bigger % given dow has grown since then
Ryan Detrick, CMT@RyanDetrick
Today was the 35th time in history the Dow was down at least 1,000 points at some point during the day. President Obama has one President Biden has 11 President Trump has 23
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@dampedspring I now understand why people become gold bugs as they get older
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Herein ends the rant on the debt wealth transfer. TBH the BULL CASE for gold, stocks and NGDP are because no one with any power at all is in any way willing to reverse this train!. Always own beta if you have savings.
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@dampedspring We're stuck in a debt loop. Reduction in deficit means lower asset prices which means all those homes bought over the last 6 years will be underwater which means etc etc. With policy makers like this who needs enemies.
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If reducing the deficit in a major way is Anti Capitalist and un- American, I no longer know what Capitalism and Patriotism mean.
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@ResearchQf I was scared away by the licensing issues. Should have just made it small enough not matter or punted in long dated options.
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@David_Doran7 Backlog and end market growth/demand curves counted more now. They could easily be shipping $20M InP alone in a few quarters. What matters is TAMs next years and its model for earnings power then
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1) $AXTI is up > 10x since summer.
Market knows for AI photonics now. But is AXTI a potential robotics & autonomous vehicle play too?
Past posts around AI interconnects typically pointed to InP, whether today's EML, CW SiPh or coherent DCI, or tomorrow's 3.2T+ with various modulation techniques or new optical scale-ups.
Here are AXTI's physical AI comments:
- AXTI is seeing increased demand for GaAs VCSEL substrates for autonomous vehicles in China
- Emerging robotics applications to increase precision and dexterity of a modern robotic hand
- Small today but breadth of use cases & development is exciting
QF Research@ResearchQf
1) 2025 was the first year that AI, across multiple analytical dimensions, made a material difference in investment decision making. One forward example, based on $TSEM's Q3 earnings commentary: "We're working on three different pathways depending on customers' needs and desires to do the 400G modulator." Below is an AI-generated interpretation of TSEM's 3 modulation pathway comment for 400G/lane modulation in 3.2T+ photonic interconnects. This is one of many cases where AI may help identify future "alphabet soups" technology winners. Take a look. This was generated in Nov after TSEM Q3 call as a basic illustration. It represents one layer in one analytical dimension (technology). The available analytical space is much deeper and broader. Then, as always, extrapolate forward several years.
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